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re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?
Posted on 7/19/24 at 7:58 pm to Shepherd88
Posted on 7/19/24 at 7:58 pm to Shepherd88
quote:
IBAT has officially won the race being first to market with commercial DLE
Well, the turtle didn't win that race.
0
Posted on 7/19/24 at 8:56 pm to ev247
So how can this stock fail as things stand now?
1. Koch backs out?
2. Equinor backs out?
3. The whole thing is an enron level scheme where the lithium produced was planted?
I feel like this is a hidden gem with the worst case being it doesn't get more contracts and goes to $6-$7.
This stock whent to $11 with nothing but a hope and a prayer. What happens when the first revenue forcast comes in and it's $25-30 million?
1. Koch backs out?
2. Equinor backs out?
3. The whole thing is an enron level scheme where the lithium produced was planted?
I feel like this is a hidden gem with the worst case being it doesn't get more contracts and goes to $6-$7.
This stock whent to $11 with nothing but a hope and a prayer. What happens when the first revenue forcast comes in and it's $25-30 million?
Posted on 7/19/24 at 11:46 pm to Boss13
I'm pretty diligent here but I wouldn't conflate that with my knowing much of anything.
That being said,
1. I don't know if I'd even call SLI and Koch "partners." More like SLI is Koch's tech customer and Koch is SLI's offtake customer.
2. Would be bummed if Equinor backed out, but I'd also be surprised. They first met with SLI in 2018 and just did "six month of intense due diligence" leading into May. And I don't know about your other holdings, but SLI is certainly my "simplest" one. Simple, slow, boring, but steadily progressing. That's to say that I really don't know what egregious unknown could appear now to change Equinor's mind.
3. Would be impressive if Equinor was smart enough to take in $107B last year while also being dumb enough to partner with today's Enron
Looking forward to the SWA DFS being completed. If they maintain their lithium price forecast of $30k/tonne, the value of SWA alone would exceed your $6-7/share range. Then if East Texas pans out, it could bring $30-40M+ per year just in royalties from potash and bromine. Not to mention the lithium that SLI would produce there.
I think it's just a boring, box-checking company that turns off caffeinated day traders for the time being.
That being said,
1. I don't know if I'd even call SLI and Koch "partners." More like SLI is Koch's tech customer and Koch is SLI's offtake customer.
2. Would be bummed if Equinor backed out, but I'd also be surprised. They first met with SLI in 2018 and just did "six month of intense due diligence" leading into May. And I don't know about your other holdings, but SLI is certainly my "simplest" one. Simple, slow, boring, but steadily progressing. That's to say that I really don't know what egregious unknown could appear now to change Equinor's mind.
3. Would be impressive if Equinor was smart enough to take in $107B last year while also being dumb enough to partner with today's Enron
Looking forward to the SWA DFS being completed. If they maintain their lithium price forecast of $30k/tonne, the value of SWA alone would exceed your $6-7/share range. Then if East Texas pans out, it could bring $30-40M+ per year just in royalties from potash and bromine. Not to mention the lithium that SLI would produce there.
I think it's just a boring, box-checking company that turns off caffeinated day traders for the time being.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 1:34 am to ev247
quote:
Would be impressive if Equinor was smart enough to take in $107B last year while also being dumb enough to partner with today's Enron
Equinor should just buy the company for $1 billion. 4x premium on the current price. I don’t understand why someone hasn’t done this already when the stock price is so deflated.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 11:28 am to go ta hell ole miss
Sometimes i wonder if lithium is just the DEI of energy. It’s like “ugh we have to do it but we really don’t want to”.
Posted on 7/22/24 at 8:49 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
Equinor should just buy the company for $1 billion. 4x premium on the current price. I don’t understand why someone hasn’t done this already when the stock price is so deflated.
Risk management. Lithium market is too uncertain right now.
Equinor's deal allows them to defer risk and most of their spend until later days, when the lithium market is more clear, but disallows another company from undercutting them.
If the lithium market recovers, the projects will progress and Equinor will buy-in in tranches of 50-100 million (waving hands, order of magnitude) at a time. If the lithium market keeps dissolving, Equinor can just wipe their hands of it when the project economics don't add up and the loss is 8 figures, rather than 10 figures if they bought them out for a billion+ here and now.
If lithium was still $30k+/ton I'd be willing to bet a pretty penny SLI would have been bought out by now.
This post was edited on 7/22/24 at 8:50 am
Posted on 7/22/24 at 9:03 am to Fe_Mike
We've gotta have some sort of news coming.
Lithium sector is tanking today and SLI is up almost 10% on significantly higher than average volume. I wonder if Mintak hooked another institution and they're buying up to Equinor valuation.
Lithium sector is tanking today and SLI is up almost 10% on significantly higher than average volume. I wonder if Mintak hooked another institution and they're buying up to Equinor valuation.
Posted on 7/22/24 at 9:05 am to Fe_Mike
Yes was just looking at volume
Posted on 7/22/24 at 9:06 am to Fe_Mike
We've gotta have some sort of news coming.
Maybe a sneak peak at the 2025 SLI hat collection?!
Maybe a sneak peak at the 2025 SLI hat collection?!
Posted on 7/22/24 at 9:30 am to Fe_Mike
quote:
Lithium sector is tanking today and SLI is up almost 10% on significantly higher than average volume. I wonder if Mintak hooked another institution and they're buying up to Equinor valuation.
I’m in Eldorado today. Will be at the sonic all afternoon.
Posted on 7/22/24 at 10:45 am to Fe_Mike
Can you explain the buying in part? Like Equinor will gradually buy more project equity or will gradually pay their share of capex? Something else?
Always grateful to learn about these things :)
Always grateful to learn about these things :)
Posted on 7/22/24 at 10:12 pm to ev247
Anyone else feel like we may get a break out ? Thinking about another bite at the apple before we make a run up to $3. Am I delusional?
Posted on 7/23/24 at 7:29 am to ev247
quote:
Like Equinor will gradually buy more project equity or will gradually pay their share of capex?
Simplified, they'll gradually pay their share of Capex.
All these numbers are hand waving approximations.
Right now, Equinor is only 'on the hook' for about $70M, which represents their commitment to getting to a FID for both SWA and ET. $30M in back pays for work already done, and $40M more for engineering work to be done. Basically.
If they get a positive FID, they'll start supplying capital for project buildout, which will also come in tranches. They'll be on the hook for around $500M towards SWA capex, if it gets built. They might issue Standard $100M at a time over a few years until the project is completed or abandoned. In this manner, they can cut their losses at any time if the project is abandoned (i.e. a new energy storage source becomes the green leader and lithium market tanks beyond repair)
If they paid $1B for SLI right now, the market could disappear in under a year and it becomes a total loss, best case. Equinor could also find themselves in a situation where they buyout SLI, drop $500M to start building out the first plant, and then the market crashes and they are out even more money.
If the lithium market was a bit more clear, I think a $1B buyout right now would be a great deal for Equinor. But with so much murkiness in the mid and long term market, hedging their bet with a partnership and deferred cash infusions is the way to go. I don't think Equinor is going to purchase any more equity in the projects - you'll more than likely just see Equinor purchase SLI outright if and when SWA is completed. That buyout number is going to keep increasing as the plant gets closer to completion and presale contracts start rolling in.
Posted on 7/23/24 at 5:39 pm to Fe_Mike
Makes perfect sense that Equinor would want to take this more incremental approach to manage their exposure. Thanks for breaking it down FeMike 
Posted on 7/26/24 at 11:16 am to Pierre
I hope you are right.
Posted on 7/28/24 at 2:25 pm to Auburn1968
Seems as if SLI has gone silent, since the Equinor announcement!
Posted on 7/28/24 at 2:49 pm to CarbonAce
Visited there Monday. Rang their doorbell at their offices downtown at 11am. No one answered or was home. Either way they do go out of their way to give the appearance of being a scam outfit.
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:59 pm to CarbonAce
Am interested to see what their first PR will be since joining forces with Equinor. That LinkedIn post from the Equinor guy mentioned an Equinor team visiting Standard's demo plant as an initial step for the partnership. That was only 3 weeks ago, so I don't know how many new developments we can expect by August earnings.
Wraytex don't forget to check their new office in Austin
Wraytex don't forget to check their new office in Austin
Posted on 7/28/24 at 4:01 pm to ev247
I'd rather drive to Eldorado.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 3:04 pm to Wraytex
Hmm, nice surge in volume at the end of the day there... wonder if there's anything to read into that. I'm not seeing any news
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