re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?

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government cheese

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Big, stinking, government cheese. I couldn’t take a dump for 2 weeks.

Now cause of this big stinking SLI stock, we can’t have anything nice. I wanna eat some of them chitlins. I love pig feet.

Yup, I have no inside info but I’m pretty confident they had everything but the signatures in place prior to Lanx opting out. It was essentially the football equivalent of waiting to fire your coach til after the season and buyouts expired, but already having the new coach lined up and ready to announce.

But then lithium prices just kept tanking so now everyone is back at the negotiating table.

Honestly, from my perspective, I’d give some lucky buyer a stupid deal for 100% offtake at these prices with a true up index formula that always gives them discount to market but doesn’t sink the plant’s EBITDA. Make them give a huge prepay to help with capital but make sure they always have a massively advantageous price position with Phase 1 lithium.

Phase 1 is not the money maker. It is a glorified pilot plant. Just get the damn thing built as proof of concept and try not to lose too much money before SWA comes online.

Get that revenue line pumped up. That will bring investors even if you’re not turning a profit. People are all about the top line these days.

Just listened to Joe Lowry's podcast with Patrick Howarth (head of low-carbon dept with Exxon). Might Exxon really not be using their own DLE? Also, no royalty decision until 2024...


Lowry: Do you have a DLE technology picked or is it still in process?

Howarth: [Looking at each of the process steps, what's the right technology?] [Parts need to be integrated into a whole] Down to your question, we're in the process of selecting a DLE vendor. We've done some pretty extensive pilots at our facilities over the last months and years and so we're rapidly approaching that selection choice.

Lowry: Do they have a royalty structure in place for lithium yet?

Howarth: Good question. It's under development. There was a recent hearing that got delayed. I know Standard Lithium, they're looking to line up the royalty on their first project. The can got kicked into 2024. We're watching that with bated breath and we'll obviously look to get ours locked up at the appropriate time.

Thanks for the Lowry excerpt. Always interesting to hear just how aware of SLI the big players are. Slight note of interest, Standard told me that they (SLI, XOM, ALB, all the local players) were in the royalty hearings together. Odd that Exxon is making it sound like it is separate designations. I admittedly don’t know too much about how these matters are handled so it’s likely just a misunderstanding on my part.

I emailed the generic SLI IR account today with quite a few questions. If they don’t respond this week I’ll reach out more directly and try to set up a call. Outside of the lithium market dropping, nothing has changed or been delayed from my last timeline so I don’t want to press or stress too much right now. Hard not to do with the stock price though.

I thought we’d get sell side pressure until the lanxess decision mid December, at which point we’d get even more sell-off. Then I estimated January for the “new partnership” (even though SLI said they anticipated December). Just didn’t count on the lithium market dropping quite this fast to add to the hurt.

I’m still bullish here especially at these prices but I am close to the point of demanding some additional strategy guidance from management if the market stays depressed. Going to give it until mid-January, my original timeline, before throwing a tantrum.

Oof @ 1.65

We're down 5% when LAC and ALB are up 3-4%. Not sure why we're getting punished by the market.

I'll try to make the least charitable pessimistic case, contrary to my current conviction.

-Lanxess, who knows more about Standard's operation than you or I do, has chosen not to partner on it

-$50M dilution locked and loaded

-Why still attending secret investor conferences if partnership demand is so fervent?

-We haven't had a meaningful PR since Oct 25 (potash and bromine found in East TX brine)
Every PR since has been absolute filler/review of things we know.

-The November 14 PR has bothered me more than anything else since the short report on Mintak's history. It couldn't have been less necessary or more desperate.

-Headlines of lithium spot price and EV demand tanking (valid or not)

-I haven't seen an insider buy since Alvaro in July, but insider Robert Cross has sold over 500k shares in the last 2 weeks. Reason?

theres a thread on the OT about Ford slashing F-150 Lightning production bc the demand isnt there. This has been one of my biggest fears...that nobody actually wants EVs

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that nobody actually wants EVs

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I see the need for battery production beyond EVs. Such as batteries for solar power etc.