re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?

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I wish I sold at $12

I’d have an extra $250k

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I saw $2.75 this morning. They really need to press for a royalty agreement and put the demo plant to work. Enough of the science project. If they've got it, show it.

Thank you for pointing out that Lanxess has the right to buy from the pilot plant as well, I completely missed that somehow. One poster relayed an IR claim that Lanxess’ decision is expected by EOY, so maybe that’s why the royalty determination is being pushed to December. Makes sense

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SLI's PR is currently tepid at best and built on a foundation of too many doubts, blown deadlines and missed projections

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Mintak's questionable past becomes more concerning as each day goes by.

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it would provide the ultimate proof of concept to widely held perception that SLI is a science experiment

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This is exactly why they need to do it. Its one thing to know that the process works but you have a CEO that's failed many times. But to not really know if it works?

I’ve thought similar but it’s more get rich quick speculation than something I actually think will happen.

But conceptually it still makes sense. Lanxess has FROR on the partnership. They can get 49% no matter what as of now. They have to wait until Lanxess officially backs out to shop it around at full ask. Once Lanx backs out, someone (Exxon? Sure but I was thinking Koch) can buy 100%.

Again, not what I think is actually happening, but not unfounded. I think Koch is gonna give them $150M for 49% of phase 1.

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Would that amount be sufficient for financing you think?

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They don't want any more than that would be my guess.

Essentially a 50% partnership on phase 1 (likely would end up being 50% for all of Lanxess project as the value comes with phase 2a/b). Non-dilutive.

Hopefully 30% debt, non-dilutive.

20% dilutive fundraising through a stock sale after all this other news comes out. Probably would effect a ~5% dilution, quite miniscule for a pre-rev company.

As you said, that's without grant money. If they get $100M from the gubment, that'd be just swell. Maybe no dilution.

Okay just chatted with the company again, finally. Pretty good info, some unfortunate non-definitives, but overall encouraging.

First on the timeline, my assumptions were correct. DFS has to be filed by the 19th of Oct, this was already confirmed. FID is due within 90 days of filing, so that would be Jan 20. However, this is not a 'firm' deadline and can be negotiated with the engineering company to a later date. They are not aiming for that, they want to get it done by the original deadline, but it's an option. To be frank, I get the feeling extending the deadline is the more likely result, but still very strong inclination that it (FID) will absolutely be done in Q1 '24. I let them know I was not a fan of the 1H '24 timeline they put out.

Unfortunately, I think we are dead in the water on real news until December. Only exception would be getting awarded a grant, will get to that later. Lanxess is the holdup right now, they won't make a decision until the DFS is filed. Once that happens, they have 45 days to make a decision (they told me 45 days, the wording was murky and she kind of hesitated, I don't know if I'm 100% confident this is the accurate number). For all intents and purposes, Lanxess is out, though. It is just a matter of how quickly they send the official decline. Early December would be the latest but SLI hopes it will be much sooner. Once that happens, SLI will quickly ink a partnership/offtake agreement (sounds like it will be a very similar deal to what Lanx has on the table) with ....pause for effect....."a household US name". They are targeting to have that portion of financing done in 2023.

Next, I asked about grants. They are actively pursuing both the DoE grant, and the IRA tax credits. The DoE grant requires a definitive feasibility study with application, that's why they haven't applied yet. Since the DFS was completed, they have submitted a white paper to the DoE for $70M towards Phase 1 capital and are planning to formally apply soon. I am just not familiar enough with that process so I can't give any estimate on the timeline for that potential award (if anyone is more knowledgeable there than me feel free to chime in). It does sound like they have a reasonable level of confidence they will be getting a grant, though - maybe the full $70M or maybe a portion, not sure. They are going to pursue the IRA tax credits, which would give 30% of capex back to them in tax credits and potentially 10% of Opex over the life of the project. No idea the status of that one, though. They're further along with the DoE grant.

Short term timeframe I see pain, followed by relief. Here's my order of operations.

1) PR stating they have filed the NI-43-101 by mid-Oct.
2) Unfortunately, I think they might have to PR that Lanxess has opted out. I see that as being a negative event and causing...uh, let's call it a great buying opportunity. Unless they just wax poetic in that PR which they don't really have a track record of. This is likely early December.
3) Big shiny fancy new partnership announced. They say they're hoping for 2023, let's be honest it's SLI, I think this happens January. Either way, the bottom is in and this starts the trend back towards $8.
4) Other financing is announced, not sure on the order. One will be debt, one will be equity sale, hopefully one will be grant.
5) FID is made (my guess is late February).

So uh, that's that.

Side note, just to add to the speculation we just started up. I am not convinced, based on this conversation, that a sale is off the table. As a wildly wild card, I am not convinced that the entire Lanx project isn't scrapped as a result of this, and all focus moves to SW Ark and Texas. Again, not what I would bet on...but interesting to ponder.

Fe_Mike thanks again for your efforts. I owe you a bottle of whatever if this thing ever blows up.

I second this.. Fe-Mike, a bottle of Niagara ice wine from me as soon as this stays above 5 USD

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....pause for effect....."a household US name".

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Effect achieved, thanks as always FeMike!

I remembered something from the Don't Waste Water podcast episode with Mintak in May that might be relevant in this vein of speculation:

"[Koch is a] complementary [partner] to Lanxess, so they weren't a competitor in the chemical business or in the water treatment business..."
Would such criteria also apply to our upcoming investor?
Which "household US names" would this exclude? ??