re: Discussion of Fed Liquidity’s Impact on Equity Markets

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Payrolls missed

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We are at the point where this is more bullish than an earnings beat and a management guidance increase.

I was still at LSU the last time this happened. Taper tantrum era.

You called it. Fed to participate in “greening” of financial system:

LINK

Good read on passive:

LINK

You watching the macro? Dollar up, yields up, equities up. Getting interesting. One of those things shouldn't be coinciding with the other two.

It's already effectively happened. Once it enters the Feds official discourse, it means they are planning the roll out already. Also, a rate spike of 1% could be disastrous because convexity works both ways lol

I just re-allocated to international and US Mega Cap equities 75/25 in the 401(k). My trading accounts are mostly gold/silver equities, non gold miners and options in high growth names. I'm pretty sure this reflation trade is going to last much longer than I originally anticipated. At least through the year. We'll have to keep monitoring the money flows. I could see some serious drawdowns with tax changes incoming in Q4.

Grant Williams is making us pay for new episodes here on out

The best interview on end game policy I've heard lately was Luke Groman on Macrovoices. He seems dialed in too.

Is Grantham the one that becomes unhinged about how the US hasn't adopted a Chinese style government to battle all the fake crisis elites have imagined into the world?

Must read for anyone interested in the topics discussed in this thread. It's an easy 5-pager, but packed full with valuable insights:

LINK

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RedStickBR

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Let me jump in here and pose a question. And forgive me if this has been discussed in the previous pages.

Eventually inflation will begin to rise with the massive amounts of spending. One would think anyway.

When we attempt to raise interest rates this will pose a problem. Specifically when we get to about 3% fed funds rate I believe the problem will really identify itself. Putting that interest on what we owe as a federal debt becomes unsustainable. I don’t think the federal debt number as a whole poses the biggest problem, until the ability to start paying the interest on it does. Am I correct?

If so, this lives big brother a couple options.
1)Begin to raise taxes. This is obvious and plausible but both of these will really be head winds for the economy.
2) the government begins to own shares of publicly traded corporations. This is essence gives them more leverage with their balance sheet as well as controlling “their revenue” while not having to say they raised taxes.
I know Japan has done it.

So I see us moving more towards a quasi-corporate structure with more government control. Much like the utility sectors now.

Any thoughts on this??