re: Discussion of Fed Liquidity’s Impact on Equity Markets

If you’re warning people to hoard food you definitely don’t have the resources to spare for an invasion. Xi’s going to need all the troops he can muster simply to hold the populace at home in check if their markets keep crashing. Unrest and riots are coming.

As an aside to the general markets: I don’t know how anyone can look at these ballooning energy/food prices and not be nervous. These are major downward pressures on consumption at a time when the markets need it most.

I’ve been saying it offline for a while now and I’ll say it here: this market is incredibly unstable and I would be deleveraging everything I could right now in preparation. If you want to leave some liquid assets in the market to keep inflation from melting them in the meanwhile by all means, but I’d make sure I was as self-sufficient as possible.

Don’t pick up pennies in front of a steamroller, folks.

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Could be a fun few years.

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It reminds me of that old Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times.

If I were to bet on anything in the coming months it would be food/energy futures continuing their run. If things get really bad we’re going to see some governments shut down exports of them and those with insufficient stocks make serious moves.

If you haven’t watched Peter Zeihan’s presentations on the coming global disorder you might want to give them a look. Very interesting food for thought.

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meanwhile, dow hits another record high

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By all means ride the lightning, son.

My advice isn’t for those who already have nothing to lose.

normalization of policy is completely impossible at this point imo so i do not see fed tightening at all

if they stop QE (taper/raise rates), stonks go to shite, dollar up, yields go up... then "the great reset"? maybe... but we are all completely fricked then

Eurodollar futures curve inverted I’m looking into this and will post more later but thought I’d get the party started again







For the lurkers this happened 6 months before "the banks are solvent" comments by tGOAT Treasury Secretary and signaled the Powell pivot.

That doesn't really make sense though because raising rates would essentially wipe out everything they've been doing for the past 3 years. I just assume you have some whipsawing between tapering/more QE and they don't mess with rates at all like we did from 2009-2016ish. I can't decide if the cycles will be faster or slower than after GFC. I lean towards faster.

More Treasury data:

I don't think Omnicrom has any legs in the US. Globally, it's a massive concern. If we get global lockdowns ex US, the Fed will probably have to do a lot more easing to calm the Eurodollar market.