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Critical minerals trade: [ON] OFF
Posted on 7/20/26 at 3:29 pm
Posted on 7/20/26 at 3:29 pm
quote:
SECURING AMERICA’S DEFENSE SUPPLY CHAINS: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order to secure America’s defense supply chains for the cutting-edge equipment that allows the U.S. to dominate the modern battlefield, particularly, the critical materials and components necessary to manufacture that equipment.
LINK
quote:
This newly announced Executive Order (issued July 20, 2026) is a major structural paradigm shift for the domestic critical materials and rare earth sectors. It essentially marks the end of the "we tried looking for a domestic supplier, but couldn't find one" loophole that defense prime contractors have relied on for years to bypass restrictions.
Now is the time to load up on US critical minerals stonks as the hour has come to stop relying on :China:
MP - the leader
USAR - the close second
CRML - the big reward play
TMC - the wild card
ALOY - the US refiner
Many others I have not listed
Oddly enough I was strongly considering doing this write up last night, before the EO was rumored or announced. But the EO makes the case even stronger. We can’t rely on Chyna’s critical minerals anymore. These are the base blocks of almost all future tech - batteries, conductive metals, transmitting metals, magnets, strengthening alloys, you name it.
The theme of the past year in investing has been: US government tailwinds. Themes with big US govt backing have soared such as US semiconductors. Next industry to really boom is US critical minerals. This is one of 3 EOs effecting this theme now and may be the most impactful. Forcing US defense contractors to use these relatively small companies will significantly boost their revenues, plus fat defense contracts will increase operating cash flow to scale. US regulatory easing will also help commission and scale these projects.
Now is the time to get in. These stocks are much cheaper than in previous months, and primed for a big reversal and industry expansion.
This post was edited on 7/20/26 at 3:32 pm
6
Posted on 7/20/26 at 4:07 pm to Upperdecker
Individual stonks here later:
MP - MP is the clear leader. They’re already producing in the US and considered in the crafting of US critical metals policy. The CEO has been big on calling for a price floor to combat China’s dumping materials below cost (due to their govt back funding the companies there). Everyone should have some money here if you’re taking this trade.
USAR - runner up but could become leader. US govt invested with them as well. Closer to production.
CRML - a big swing bet on Greenland. They own 92.5% of Tanbreez, the most promising untapped mine in the world. Tanbreez is accessible year round in Greenland, which is uncommon for polar climates. The project has been blessed by Greenland and Denmark and US so far. Obviously if US makes political progress on control of Denmark, this one goes to the moon. But they are still early in the project, started doing drilling a few weeks ago. Production not expected until 2028. But CRML is very volatile and any critical metals or Greenland news can shoot this thing back to $20+ potentially. They have a 15 year offtake agreement with ALOY, securing revenue once they get going.
TMC - this is another big swing bet. They are harvesting metallic nodules off the deep sea floor. Completely different set of regulation and they are the clear market leader. They’ve done exploratory work and temporary permitted harvesting so far. Long term permitting remains in regulatory progress. They have control of a large promising zone of deep sea floor. If regulatory becomes completely approved, they become a clear market leader in a sub market with a decent MOAT based on regulatory, permitting, and technology. Not to be lost is that they also have a stake in refining so they make money throughout the life cycle, while some of the other companies are not refining collected ore.
ALOY - a pure refining play, but there are very few US refiners so they are a target for US investment and regulatory help. Already secured some offtake from CRML but expected to get more from other companies. They are in pilot testing right now in Canada with a Canadian rare earth deposit beginning mining, but will transfer their refining plant to the US in early 2027. EOs have heavily favored ALOY as it’s a necessary part of the supply chain for the US to develop critical metals production.
MP - MP is the clear leader. They’re already producing in the US and considered in the crafting of US critical metals policy. The CEO has been big on calling for a price floor to combat China’s dumping materials below cost (due to their govt back funding the companies there). Everyone should have some money here if you’re taking this trade.
USAR - runner up but could become leader. US govt invested with them as well. Closer to production.
CRML - a big swing bet on Greenland. They own 92.5% of Tanbreez, the most promising untapped mine in the world. Tanbreez is accessible year round in Greenland, which is uncommon for polar climates. The project has been blessed by Greenland and Denmark and US so far. Obviously if US makes political progress on control of Denmark, this one goes to the moon. But they are still early in the project, started doing drilling a few weeks ago. Production not expected until 2028. But CRML is very volatile and any critical metals or Greenland news can shoot this thing back to $20+ potentially. They have a 15 year offtake agreement with ALOY, securing revenue once they get going.
TMC - this is another big swing bet. They are harvesting metallic nodules off the deep sea floor. Completely different set of regulation and they are the clear market leader. They’ve done exploratory work and temporary permitted harvesting so far. Long term permitting remains in regulatory progress. They have control of a large promising zone of deep sea floor. If regulatory becomes completely approved, they become a clear market leader in a sub market with a decent MOAT based on regulatory, permitting, and technology. Not to be lost is that they also have a stake in refining so they make money throughout the life cycle, while some of the other companies are not refining collected ore.
ALOY - a pure refining play, but there are very few US refiners so they are a target for US investment and regulatory help. Already secured some offtake from CRML but expected to get more from other companies. They are in pilot testing right now in Canada with a Canadian rare earth deposit beginning mining, but will transfer their refining plant to the US in early 2027. EOs have heavily favored ALOY as it’s a necessary part of the supply chain for the US to develop critical metals production.
This post was edited on 7/22/26 at 8:12 am
Posted on 7/20/26 at 5:52 pm to Upperdecker
Hypothetical producers like SLI need not apply
Posted on 7/20/26 at 7:18 pm to Upperdecker
All roads lead to critical minerals
My favorite quantum play with a chance for a big govt contract to find critical minerals to further develop the US critical minerals industry
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If tweet fails to load, click here. My favorite quantum play with a chance for a big govt contract to find critical minerals to further develop the US critical minerals industry
Posted on 7/20/26 at 8:25 pm to Upperdecker
UAMY - thesis to come. Only vertically integrated antimony miner/smelter in North America.
2 refining facilities, main located in Montana. Company owns a separate tungsten deposit in Canada - the tungsten underneath is supposedly worth over $2B. Tungsten hasn’t been mined in USA/Canada in ~20 years, so that is crucial to keep in mind.
Market cap is $764M, down drastically over last 6M. Might be the proper time to take a flyer on some LEAPs (ironically, I did so today before reading this post)
Will post a proper thesis tomorrow
2 refining facilities, main located in Montana. Company owns a separate tungsten deposit in Canada - the tungsten underneath is supposedly worth over $2B. Tungsten hasn’t been mined in USA/Canada in ~20 years, so that is crucial to keep in mind.
Market cap is $764M, down drastically over last 6M. Might be the proper time to take a flyer on some LEAPs (ironically, I did so today before reading this post)
Will post a proper thesis tomorrow
This post was edited on 7/20/26 at 8:39 pm
Posted on 7/21/26 at 5:42 am to Upperdecker
I bought 240 ALOY yesterday in AH, which was trading near $20 last month!
8.43 avg
8.43 avg
Posted on 7/21/26 at 5:52 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
I bought 240 ALOY yesterday in AH, which was trading near $20 last month! 8.43 avg
FWIW they did have a private placement at 14.25. But still, fantastic value to what tutes paid at 14.25. And my thesis has this company being critically important for a long time. They’ve also significantly improved their outlook in the past few months
Posted on 7/21/26 at 9:06 am to Upperdecker
Yes, I was happy to see the drop from the offering, but then it got ridiculous.
Upped to 400 shares, and now we've got a runner!
Also bought 825 of NB.
Upped to 400 shares, and now we've got a runner!
Also bought 825 of NB.
Posted on 7/22/26 at 7:32 am to Upperdecker
I'm in.
Started a small position in MP and will spread across some of the others.
I like where alot of these charts are sitting at the bottom of ranges.
What's your timeline on most of these?
Started a small position in MP and will spread across some of the others.
I like where alot of these charts are sitting at the bottom of ranges.
What's your timeline on most of these?
Posted on 7/22/26 at 7:57 am to rintintin
quote:
What's your timeline on most of these?
Short and long basically. They’re due for a solid bounce here. Started seeing it yesterday but plenty more room just for bouncing. The long term on these is fantastic - 2027 starts most of the EOs’ effective dates, so we’ll see the effects in earnings soon after that. My thesis is this industry is fairly insulated regardless of party even though the EOs are from Trump - a lot of Dems don’t like China either and these EOs are pushing American jobs.
We should see a ramp up of growth as these companies get a secured price floor to combat China plus guaranteed offtake from defense and other industries now.
Some specific ones are mostly long term, like TMC and CRML, where their regulatory timelines and runway to production are longer than MP or USAR. However that’s baked into their prices, and both have significant short term catalysts as well
Posted on 7/22/26 at 9:01 am to Upperdecker
Already front loaded you baw
I got like 4 drums of copper ready to go to the scrap yard
I got like 4 drums of copper ready to go to the scrap yard
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