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Started By
Message
CPI comes in slightly hotter than expected, pre market stocks rally
Posted on 3/12/24 at 7:53 am
Posted on 3/12/24 at 7:53 am
quote:
The consumer price index report for February was mixed, raising questions on when the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates. CPI climbed 0.4% month over month and 3.2% on a year-over-year basis. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a month-over-month increase of 0.4%. Year over year, they had forecast a gain of 3.1%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, was also slightly hotter than expected year over year and month over month.
Some talk this morning that owner’s equivalent rent finally starting to turn over helping the stock and bond markets this morning.
7
Posted on 3/12/24 at 8:20 am to slackster
Right back to the scene of the crime. Fake news.
Posted on 3/12/24 at 8:28 am to slackster
Always, always, always "hotter than expected", "unexpectedly higher", etc.
It's never better than expected. And since it's never what they expect, they should all be fired for getting it wrong every...single...time.
It's a subtle word game that implies "nobody could have predicted this; it's not our fault; this is an anomaly; don't blame us."
They know damn well what caused it, what's continuing to cause it, and what it's going to look like at the next report absent major changes.
It's never better than expected. And since it's never what they expect, they should all be fired for getting it wrong every...single...time.
It's a subtle word game that implies "nobody could have predicted this; it's not our fault; this is an anomaly; don't blame us."
They know damn well what caused it, what's continuing to cause it, and what it's going to look like at the next report absent major changes.
Posted on 3/12/24 at 8:35 am to Longhorn Actual
we are going to continue to hover around 3% this year unless some economic event happens or they decide to raise rates again
Posted on 3/12/24 at 8:44 am to slackster
quote:
hotter than expected
Posted on 3/12/24 at 8:46 am to Longhorn Actual
Hotter than expected every month
Posted on 3/12/24 at 8:48 am to Longhorn Actual
quote:
Always, always, always "hotter than expected", "unexpectedly higher", etc.
It's never better than expected.
That's not true. It's come in lower than expected multiple times in the past couple years. That doesn't mean it wasn't hotter than desired, but it wasn't as hot as projected. Big difference.
quote:
they should all be fired for getting it wrong every...single...time.
It's almost as if economics is an inexact science. Who'd've ever thunk a $23 trillion economy was this complex?
Posted on 3/12/24 at 8:59 am to BottomlandBrew
quote:
Who'd've ever thunk a $23 trillion economy was this complex?
Unfortunately, I'm extremely jaded and extremely prejudiced.
The quarterly statements regarding inflation from about 2 years ago have burned in my brain a high level of incompetence in the FEDs ability to ascertain a truthful stance on the todays and tomorrows.
Being slightly off target today is no longer a consistent mark of being just around the bullseye. Many of these people should have been let go a couple of years ago.
Posted on 3/12/24 at 9:17 am to BottomlandBrew
quote:
It's almost as if economics is an inexact science. Who'd've ever thunk a $23 trillion economy was this complex?
What an incredibly naive statement.
Let's use the same statement in another context where they've been wrong about everything, yet continue to push a false narrative in an attempt to shift public perception while they frick us over in every way imaginable.
quote:
"It's almost as if climate change is an inexact science. Who'd've ever thunk a planet and its systems were this complex?"
Posted on 3/12/24 at 9:22 am to slackster
How did they cook the books or fudge the numbers ?
Posted on 3/12/24 at 9:28 am to Longhorn Actual
quote:
What an incredibly naive statement.
No. A naive statement is thinking economists can nail down and agree on a $23 trillion economy to less than 0.1%. This shite's hard, yo.
Posted on 3/12/24 at 9:36 am to Longhorn Actual
quote:
Always, always, always "hotter than expected", "unexpectedly higher", etc. It's never better than expected.
Cpi has come in lower than expected just recently.
The whole premise of your little rant is incorrect.
Posted on 3/12/24 at 9:45 am to slackster
Why is this boosting the market?
Posted on 3/12/24 at 9:54 am to TheWalrus
large part of the market being up right now is NVDA up 5% at the moment
Posted on 3/12/24 at 10:02 am to BottomlandBrew
quote:
No. A naive statement is thinking economists can nail down and agree on a $23 trillion economy to less than 0.1%. This shite's hard, yo.
No surprise the point is going completely over your head.
The U.S. economy is complex? No shite.
Your statement is more than a statement of fact. It suggests they should be forgiven for getting it wrong 99% of the time (yeah, I said "always" and you guys want to sharpshoot that instead of the overall point) and pretending "who could have seen this coming? nobody, and certainly not us" because "this shite's hard, yo."
In other words, you're buying into the manipulation. "Soft landing!"...yeah, sure, we had a soft landing...in a field 100mi past the airport runway.
The problem is twofold. The Fed failed to raise rates both soon enough and high enough. That alone is a failure.
On top of that, the government's fiscal policy is overpowering the Fed's monetary policy. Fiscal policy and monetary policy can work together or fight each other, and right now fiscal policy is doing more than just cancelling out monetary policy.
The government has to stop spending or the Fed has to "Volcker" the economy with rates > 10%...possibly both at this point.
They know it. Anybody with a brain knows it. I know it and have been saying it for years. I do have an education in Economics, but I'm just a fricking guy. If I understand it, then the "best and brightest" should be able to.
Keep believing the bullshite they're feeding you though and excuse them because "it's super duper complex stuff we're working with here."
Also keep forking over your liberties in the name of climate change. When their predictions fail to materialize like they have for the last 100 years, excuse that too. How could they have known they were wrong? After all, the Earth is complex and "This shite's hard, yo."
This post was edited on 3/12/24 at 10:07 am
Posted on 3/12/24 at 10:07 am to Longhorn Actual
quote:
On top of that, the government's fiscal policy is overpowering the fed's monetary policy. Fiscal policy and monetary policy can work together or fight each other, and right now fiscal policy is doing more than just cancelling out monetary policy.
This is spot on.
Posted on 3/12/24 at 10:07 am to TheWalrus
quote:It's probably not, but the Nasdaq-100 is up.
Why is this boosting the market?
Posted on 3/12/24 at 10:12 am to TheWalrus
quote:
Why is this boosting the market?
The equities markets and the economy have been largely detached from each other for quite some time. They are somewhat correlated on the big/major stuff, but even then it's pretty loose.
The securities markets have a stronger relationship. I haven't looked, but I'm guessing treasuries are up.
Posted on 3/12/24 at 1:23 pm to Longhorn Actual
quote:
Soft landing!"...yeah, sure, we had a soft landing...in a field 100mi past the airport runway.
What? In the fall of 2022, famously, the Bloomberg economists poll had 100% predicting a recession. That recession has yet to even happen - so what "landing" of any kind are you even talking about?
quote:OK. What does that have to do with external economists?
The problem is twofold. The Fed failed to raise rates both soon enough and high enough. That alone is a failure.
quote:It depends on what your goal is? What is your goal? The US currently has by far the best economy in the world - meaning it's the best economy in the history of the world. I'm curious what outcome you and all your knowledge over the years is intending to steer us toward.
They know it. Anybody with a brain knows it. I know it and have been saying it for years. I do have an education in Economics, but I'm just a fricking guy. If I understand it, then the "best and brightest" should be able to.
Posted on 3/12/24 at 1:24 pm to Longhorn Actual
quote:10 year yield is up 5bps. Not sure if that's what you meant or not.
guessing treasuries are up.
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