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re: Commodities Sell-Off Today - Thoughts?
Posted on 5/5/11 at 2:55 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 5/5/11 at 2:55 pm to LSURussian
If you buy a $ denominated bond with, let's us the euro, the return will be higher as the $ gets weaker.
Kfizzle, you're right, sorry about that.
Kfizzle, you're right, sorry about that.
1
Posted on 5/5/11 at 3:04 pm to bbvdd
quote:
If you buy a $ denominated bond with, let's us the euro, the return will be higher as the $ gets weaker.
Please teach me, master. Use an example with exchange rates.
Posted on 5/5/11 at 3:11 pm to tirebiter
quote:
The Fed has a schedule of future purchases, it fell within the range of purchases specified, the market would have already known that was going to occur. I don't get your logic.
Tirebiter, I am not talking about the purchase schedule, I am talking about following the money. On the POMO days the markets tend to rise at the 11:00 close of the POMO. If you look at today and then look at a DJIA HOURLY you will see where some the money went. It happened today.
It has been pretty consistent and the markets trend to rise a lot on the BIG POMO days
As with all things, it is not fool proof, but I have had a good time watching this.
PS. Check the IRX against the last 15 minutes of the Dow.
This post was edited on 5/5/11 at 3:14 pm
Posted on 5/5/11 at 3:22 pm to Blakely Bimbo
Correlation =/= causation. Again, without running it through the battery of statistical verification tests that exist, this is pretty much meaningless to me. This is rampant in investment analysis at all levels though, not hating, just saying.
Posted on 5/5/11 at 3:40 pm to kfizzle85
Kfizz, I'm a Bimbo... don't have an MBA... and not trying to get a job at an investment bank. My timeline is too short and I am too old to short term trade. You've got to be very young and have nerves of steel to trade. I've just been trying to follow the money. Some people do, some don't. Everybody talks their book and has their own methods of investment. It's up to everyone to do their own due diligence. And I agree... not hating, just saying.
Posted on 5/5/11 at 3:57 pm to Blakely Bimbo
quote:
It has been pretty consistent and the markets trend to rise a lot on the BIG POMO days
I am with kfizz on this. Parties know in advance the purchase level, the market knows it, seriously doubt it has the effect you are concluding. Tea leaves, Y shaped water divining sticks, etc.
Posted on 5/5/11 at 3:58 pm to Blakely Bimbo
quote:Shouldn't it be the other way around???
I am too old to short term trade.
Posted on 5/5/11 at 4:07 pm to LSURussian
Nm
This post was edited on 5/5/11 at 4:12 pm
Posted on 5/5/11 at 4:10 pm to Blakely Bimbo
quote:
Kfizz, I'm a Bimbo... don't have an MBA...
Neither do I, and I also have [dirty] blond (almost brown now) hair.
quote:
My timeline is too short and I am too old to short term trade. You've got to be very young and have nerves of steel to trade.
I'm young and I don't have the time or the inclination to, and my posts don't have anything to do with trading at all.
quote:
I've just been trying to follow the money. Some people do, some don't. Everybody talks their book and has their own methods of investment. It's up to everyone to do their own due diligence.
And I'm not saying you shouldn't, I'm just saying that your method of analyzing the information you are using to follow the money is flawed and almost without question misleading and inaccurate because you're using statistical analysis with zero basis for judging its accuracy. There is no relation to trading here, its purely statistical and could apply to anything that involves numbers and graphs and such.
quote:
And I agree... not hating, just saying.
Posted on 5/5/11 at 8:27 pm to bbvdd
With the, let's us the pound, stronger vs the $ you are able to buy more $ denominated bonds.
When the $ was worth 1.25 an investor could buy 1mm $ denominated bonds for 800,000 pounds. Now with thhe pound worth 1.64 an investor can buy 1mm $ denominated bonds for $610612 (i think that's the right number)
I edited to make sure my numbers were correct.
When the $ was worth 1.25 an investor could buy 1mm $ denominated bonds for 800,000 pounds. Now with thhe pound worth 1.64 an investor can buy 1mm $ denominated bonds for $610612 (i think that's the right number)
I edited to make sure my numbers were correct.
Posted on 5/5/11 at 8:43 pm to bbvdd
What does that have to do with "the return being higher" as you wrote earlier?
Posted on 5/5/11 at 9:15 pm to LSURussian
Spending the same amount gives higher par amount increasing your return.
Posted on 5/5/11 at 9:20 pm to bbvdd
Please don't take this personally but I don't think you know what you are talking about. That or I completely misunderstand your point.
Posted on 5/5/11 at 9:29 pm to bbvdd
quote:
Nm
You should edit all of your post in this way.
Posted on 5/5/11 at 11:41 pm to StrangeBrew
So how did we get into talking about investing and returns instead of the huge commodities sell-of that occurred today? 
Posted on 5/6/11 at 8:04 am to md9897
This - from a Precious Metals broker.....
"The Comex is trying to cut the demand for silver to aid the shorts, and have made it very expensive to get a silver futures contract. As a result, thousands have dumped their silver futures contracts, which has flooded the market with paper silver. Not real silver, because the demand is still unbelievably strong. A silver Eagle ordered today will be delivered June 23rd, so strong is the demand. The 20% correction is not from a lesser demand, but from the Comex actions, and in my opinion, it will be very brief, and prices will go right back up and higher. I have no crystal ball, but I bought yesterday, and wouldn't dream of selling!"
"The Comex is trying to cut the demand for silver to aid the shorts, and have made it very expensive to get a silver futures contract. As a result, thousands have dumped their silver futures contracts, which has flooded the market with paper silver. Not real silver, because the demand is still unbelievably strong. A silver Eagle ordered today will be delivered June 23rd, so strong is the demand. The 20% correction is not from a lesser demand, but from the Comex actions, and in my opinion, it will be very brief, and prices will go right back up and higher. I have no crystal ball, but I bought yesterday, and wouldn't dream of selling!"
Posted on 5/6/11 at 8:18 am to tigerpawl
quote:
from a Precious Metals broker.....
Is there any need to read further?
Posted on 5/6/11 at 8:39 am to foshizzle
Nope....
Posted on 5/6/11 at 8:47 am to foshizzle
This link has been circulating among the metals blogs. Remember everyone talks their book, but the article is interesting . I saw a very young metals trader on CNBC yesterday. The kid looked like he was 17, but was probably older. He was emphatic about how HFT (High Frequency trading) made the drops so much worse.
From the link article:
traderdan
They can change the rules anytime they want. Always remember that when your money is at risk.
From the link article:
quote:
By their continued hiking of silver margins, the exchange effectively removed the liquidity in the silver market that the smaller specs have been providing. That left the market vulnerable to severe drops in price as these specs exited due to financial constraints which then removed a source of potential bids under the market as the CFTC commitments report has shown the small specs to be good buyers in the silver market.
traderdan
They can change the rules anytime they want. Always remember that when your money is at risk.
Posted on 5/6/11 at 9:13 am to Blakely Bimbo
quote:
They can change the rules anytime they want
Please stop saying this like there is some conspiracy going on.
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