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cwill
Member since Jan 2005
42471 posts

re: CHK, the unconventional pioneer, on the brink of calling it a wrap
quote:

They won't fold so many assets they could sell first.


They don’t. You can’t just sell assets without seriously impairing your borrowing base and the assets they can probably afford to sell (gas) won’t attract much value because they’re gas and it’s a shite A&D market.


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cwill
Member since Jan 2005
42471 posts

re: CHK, the unconventional pioneer, on the brink of calling it a wrap
quote:


If you’re not in the Permian, you’re dying.


Permian getting killed in the market right now because, again, operators over promised and have under delivered. The layer cake with distinct layers is BS, costs are through the roof.


GREENHEAD22
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2009
13493 posts

re: CHK, the unconventional pioneer, on the brink of calling it a wrap
It will be interesting to see if XOM and Chevron can make it work. I am assuming they are more interested in the consistent longterm production albeit at lower rates.


cwill
Member since Jan 2005
42471 posts

re: CHK, the unconventional pioneer, on the brink of calling it a wrap
quote:

It will be interesting to see if XOM and Chevron can make it work. I am assuming they are more interested in the consistent longterm production albeit at lower rates.


CVX owns the minerals so they’ll make it work. I wasn’t saying the Permian was not a great resource play...it’s just another over promise, under deliver capital incineration machine at this point. There’s going to be a smaller core that is highly profitable and a bunch of lower tier acreage that busts out a bunch of mid and small caps.


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thegreatboudini
McNeese State Fan
Member since Oct 2008
4302 posts

re: CHK, the unconventional pioneer, on the brink of calling it a wrap
We’re forecasting a 4-5% bump between 2020 and 2023 out of GOM, but nothing material and definitely nothing long lasting.


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thegreatboudini
McNeese State Fan
Member since Oct 2008
4302 posts

re: CHK, the unconventional pioneer, on the brink of calling it a wrap
quote:

Permian getting killed in the market right now because, again, operators over promised and have under delivered. The layer cake with distinct layers is BS, costs are through the roof.




It’s not the Permian getting killed in the market, it’s the entire energy sector.

I completely agree that operators have been understating their costs by 15-20% for many years now, but even with higher well costs than they led on to believe we’ve still never seen economics in shale like this ever before, outside of Karnes County (which was and still is half the scale).

Tier 4 Permian acreage is breaking even with current commodity prices. Tier 4. We’ve never seen even close to that in any other play.




fallguy_1978
LSU Fan
Half mile from St George
Member since Feb 2018
18855 posts

re: CHK, the unconventional pioneer, on the brink of calling it a wrap
I remember owning this stock in the mid $20s


cwill
Member since Jan 2005
42471 posts

re: CHK, the unconventional pioneer, on the brink of calling it a wrap
quote:

Tier 4 Permian acreage is breaking even with current commodity prices. Tier 4. We’ve never seen even close to that in any other play.


We still haven’t seen this...it’s just not true.


barry
Cincinnati Fan
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
47314 posts

re: CHK, the unconventional pioneer, on the brink of calling it a wrap
quote:

Tier 4 Permian acreage is breaking even with current commodity prices. Tier 4. We’ve never seen even close to that in any other play.


Can you please define break even? Because this is utter bull shite IMO


thegreatboudini
McNeese State Fan
Member since Oct 2008
4302 posts

re: CHK, the unconventional pioneer, on the brink of calling it a wrap
I’m not an operator, strictly third party moderator. I have a hard time believing it, but the numbers are there.

You guys think XOM, CVX, RDSA are making moves to choke out independents for poor man economics? They’ve all got variable acreage, and they make money with all of it.
This post was edited on 11/11 at 3:48 pm


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hubertcumberdale
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2009
1654 posts

re: CHK, the unconventional pioneer, on the brink of calling it a wrap
quote:

Pretty sure Aubrey’s interest at 2.5 in their eagleford stuff was called Jamestown Resources.


His Appalachian interests are held as Larchmont Resources. I think he had quite a few entities set up to hold all his various interests across the country.


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hubertcumberdale
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2009
1654 posts

re: CHK, the unconventional pioneer, on the brink of calling it a wrap
quote:

Can you please define break even? Because this is utter bull shite IMO


It varies by company but can estimate a general break even by using average costs in a given region/basin

Image: https://bioage.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c4fbe53ef022ad3566378200c-550wi


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GREENHEAD22
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2009
13493 posts

re: CHK, the unconventional pioneer, on the brink of calling it a wrap
So question because I don't know shale. I know the intial decline rates are quick and steep but doesnt the production level off and maintain for long periods after the initial decline?
This post was edited on 11/11 at 9:11 pm


thegreatboudini
McNeese State Fan
Member since Oct 2008
4302 posts

re: CHK, the unconventional pioneer, on the brink of calling it a wrap
Yes, very steep year 1 decline then fairly stable. Month over month, depending on the play and GOR, can be a 5-7% decline. They choke the hell out of something like the haynesville due to its extreme decline.

Generalizing terminal declines here, which are reached usually year 4-5, shake out to 0.8-1.2% MoM.


GREENHEAD22
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2009
13493 posts

re: CHK, the unconventional pioneer, on the brink of calling it a wrap
Like I said earlier, I dont think XOM/Chev are looking at the intial production as much as the longer term steady production. I would have to think they have some EOR plans to extend the production even further.
This post was edited on 11/12 at 1:52 pm


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cwill
Member since Jan 2005
42471 posts

re: CHK, the unconventional pioneer, on the brink of calling it a wrap
quote:

I have a hard time believing it, but the numbers are there.


The numbers are easily manipulated and they have been. Publicized break evens are horse shite...especially the crap being claimed in the Permian.


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Jp1LSU
LSU Fan
Key West
Member since Oct 2005
1559 posts

re: CHK, the unconventional pioneer, on the brink of calling it a wrap
quote:

I remember owning this stock in the mid $20s

I bought it in 2011 for about $14 a share and it had a decent dividend. Went up to $30 something and the dividend got cut and I bailed. I’ve bought and sold some here and there since then.


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TigerDog83
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2005
6981 posts

re: CHK, the unconventional pioneer, on the brink of calling it a wrap
quote:

You guys think XOM, CVX, RDSA are making moves to choke out independents for poor man economics? They’ve all got variable acreage, and they make money with all of it.


If the break evens are as good as are being touted why do the profits never show up in the company financials? They’re flat out overstating reserves and understating costs, especially on the g and a side. These guys keep drilling to pay off debt instead of laying down rigs when rational operators (read non p-e backed private companies) would. They end up perpetually flooding the market and killing everybody, while maybe 40% of it is really economic.


LSURoss
Chicago Cubs Fan
Shreveport, LA
Member since Dec 2007
13593 posts

re: CHK, the unconventional pioneer, on the brink of calling it a wrap
Anyone buying chk at 68 cents?


cwill
Member since Jan 2005
42471 posts

re: CHK, the unconventional pioneer, on the brink of calling it a wrap


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