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Buying Apple stock tomorrow.
Posted on 5/31/10 at 11:39 pm
Posted on 5/31/10 at 11:39 pm
Short term, the iPad is going to become even more of a steamroller than it already is. It is the first time Apple has rolled something out with this kind of price point in as much as it is actually cheaper than less capable PC platforms it competes with for what a huge portion of that market uses those platforms for.
Long term, Google is the only thing across a broad competitive spectrum that Apple has to worry about over the next 10 years or so but Google has a bad business model. They innovate then throw their pearls before swine such as having Motorola build the Droid and just plug their stuff in.
If Google brings everything in house, they might give Apple a run.
Until then, feeling good about my pending purchase.
Long term, Google is the only thing across a broad competitive spectrum that Apple has to worry about over the next 10 years or so but Google has a bad business model. They innovate then throw their pearls before swine such as having Motorola build the Droid and just plug their stuff in.
If Google brings everything in house, they might give Apple a run.
Until then, feeling good about my pending purchase.
4
Posted on 5/31/10 at 11:48 pm to Scoop
I think the iPad buzz will be short-lived. I know someone who has one and it has got to be the most pointless thing I've ever seen. It's like a giant iPhone except you can't fit it in your pocket, it's awkward to hold b/c you're so worried about dropping it, and it was a huge fail not to include a camera on the front of it, if it even has one at all (I can't remember, but I know it's not on the front).
I am very, very long on AAPL. Steve Jobs is just the best in the business and has mentioned publicly that they will continue to roll out hot, new products throughout the next few years. The AAPL brand is stronger than its ever been. They could basically release a frozen turd with their logo on the side and it would sell out. But I do think any rev estimates should carefully include a large decrease in iPad sales in the near future. I hope I'm wrong.
I am very, very long on AAPL. Steve Jobs is just the best in the business and has mentioned publicly that they will continue to roll out hot, new products throughout the next few years. The AAPL brand is stronger than its ever been. They could basically release a frozen turd with their logo on the side and it would sell out. But I do think any rev estimates should carefully include a large decrease in iPad sales in the near future. I hope I'm wrong.
Posted on 5/31/10 at 11:54 pm to RedStickBR
+1000 on all of that. Their growth has been nothing short of a miracle the past decade. Can they continue that? I have no idea, that's a really tall order, but for my sake as a technophobe, I hope they do, and although I'm not necessarily betting against them, I really doubt that they will continue at the ridiculous growth pace they've been on since the ipod came out. Google is the Apple/MS of the future, there is zero question in my mind about that. I wouldn't buy either stock right now, I think they're both overbought, but for different reasons, and as a usually conservative investor, I tend to think that about most tech stocks in general, so a grain of salt is necessary.
Posted on 5/31/10 at 11:58 pm to Scoop
quote:
Long term, Google is the only thing across a broad competitive spectrum that Apple has to worry about over the next 10 years or so but Google has a bad business model
be careful about time horizons in the tech market...10 years ago AOL was still a huge player
Posted on 6/1/10 at 12:04 am to ForeLSU
Seriously that was the biggest fail in history. I was only like 13 then, but I remember even thinking then "this is a terrible idea," mostly because I had just convinced my dad that we HAD to get this new thing called a cable modem. It wasn't till like last year I went and looked up the price. Jesus. tapdancing. christ.
Posted on 6/1/10 at 12:11 am to kfizzle85
quote:
I was only like 13 then, but I remember even thinking then "this is a terrible idea," mostly because I had just convinced my dad that we HAD to get this new thing called a cable modem. It wasn't till like last year I went and looked up the price. Jesus. tapdancing. christ.
I got my first Internet account in '94...$25 bucks a month for 9600 baud. I got email, usenet, ftp, etc. and thought "this thing is going to be a huge flop", Compuserve was so much better.
Posted on 6/1/10 at 12:26 am to RedStickBR
The iPad isn't buzz.
I got mine a week after they came out so I've had it a while.
I love it more every day.
It is the best web browsing platform on Earth for one thing and it will gather momentum because like it or not, it is a game changer.
Seriously, the people that sell the iPad short are misguided.
I got mine a week after they came out so I've had it a while.
I love it more every day.
It is the best web browsing platform on Earth for one thing and it will gather momentum because like it or not, it is a game changer.
Seriously, the people that sell the iPad short are misguided.
Posted on 6/1/10 at 12:30 am to ForeLSU
I think we got ours in 96-97, right before the napster/mp3 wave hit. I remember scouring the internet looking for websites with mp3s on them, and waiting and hoping that the connection wouldn't drop during the 45m it took to download the 3mb file. That and using some free dial-up service to play command and conquer: red alert against some buddies.
Posted on 6/1/10 at 12:35 am to RedStickBR
quote:
I know someone who has one
Didn't mean for this thread to be about the iPad, but I never see anyone that owns one hating on it.
Posted on 6/1/10 at 12:58 am to Scoop
I'm speaking in terms of the iPad's potential to fuel enormous growth for Apple. I don't think it has that potential. People HAVE TO have an iphone. No one HAS TO have a macbook, much less an iPad. I'm just not expecting it to bring in consistent, earth-shattering sales for Apple like the iPhone has. Sure, it's kind of neat, but I think it's still in the stage of, "I want one because it's the newest and hottest thing out." I don't think it will ever rise to the level of 60-70% ownership per household like the iPod/iPhone has.
Posted on 6/1/10 at 1:25 am to RedStickBR
Exactly. The iPhone absolutely revolutionized cell phones, much like the iPod did for mp3 players. Both of those dominated their respective markets, because, for years, they were, far and away, the best products in their respective niches. iPad, not so much.
The iphone, for all its glory, is no longer crushing the competition in terms of technology. There will never be an "iphone killer" as long as it remains up to current standards and continues to get hype, Apple's primary strengths. It will sell well, but other devices are going to eat away at its market share. I think it would be insane to bake in the first three years of iphone growth and expect it to continue, and this is precisely what I think many analysts are doing (RSBR, this is a recurring theme of mine). Again, it doesn't mean it won't sell, but investing, especially in tech companies with ridiculous PEs, isn't about making money, its about making more money, and a lot of it. Iphone sales will continue to grow, but I think that growth rate has already reached its apex. You cannot ignore the massive increase in competition and the simple maturation of the product line and the market in general.
The iPad won't enjoy the 2 year honeymoon the iPhone had, better and more capable devices will be on shelves within two months. Again, will it continue to sell? I'm sure people will still buy iPads. Will it dominate like the iPhone did? Not a chance in hell.
The iphone, for all its glory, is no longer crushing the competition in terms of technology. There will never be an "iphone killer" as long as it remains up to current standards and continues to get hype, Apple's primary strengths. It will sell well, but other devices are going to eat away at its market share. I think it would be insane to bake in the first three years of iphone growth and expect it to continue, and this is precisely what I think many analysts are doing (RSBR, this is a recurring theme of mine). Again, it doesn't mean it won't sell, but investing, especially in tech companies with ridiculous PEs, isn't about making money, its about making more money, and a lot of it. Iphone sales will continue to grow, but I think that growth rate has already reached its apex. You cannot ignore the massive increase in competition and the simple maturation of the product line and the market in general.
The iPad won't enjoy the 2 year honeymoon the iPhone had, better and more capable devices will be on shelves within two months. Again, will it continue to sell? I'm sure people will still buy iPads. Will it dominate like the iPhone did? Not a chance in hell.
Posted on 6/1/10 at 4:16 am to Scoop
apple's business will probably continue to do well, but i feel a strong correction coming for the broader market near term(next 6 months). thus dragging appl down too. appl will see 200 before year end. JMO.
SP futures down 17pts over-night right now.
SP futures down 17pts over-night right now.
Posted on 6/1/10 at 7:22 am to Scoop
quote:
it is actually cheaper than less capable PC platforms it competes with
No not really. IPads can't do half of what a PC can
Posted on 6/1/10 at 7:26 am to kfizzle85
Good analysis fizz. I agree with you. Competition is rising. It will be interesting to see what happens when companies start releasing their "4G" models. And I'll go ahead and respond to the next poster's post in this response as well: there is not an ice cube's chance in hell that AAPL sees 200 bucks again this year, in my humble opinion. I mean, that would be a SERIOUS breakdown.
Posted on 6/1/10 at 8:08 am to kfizzle85
the iPad has some interesting commercial potential, so that may be where you see some serious growth. I haven't bought one yet, but it looks like a great platform for doing sales presentations. All the big A/V automation companies are supporting it as a touch control device.
They need to let Adobe put Flash on it though, I think that is a big mistake.
They need to let Adobe put Flash on it though, I think that is a big mistake.
Posted on 6/1/10 at 8:35 am to ForeLSU
I think the iPad is a legit replacement for both a netbook and a kindle. I just so happen to have a need for neither of those. I think it could legitimately be a decent product in the long run.
fwiw, my iPhone's predictive text changes ipad to upas.
fwiw, my iPhone's predictive text changes ipad to upas.
Posted on 6/1/10 at 8:41 am to TheHiddenFlask
i sold AAPL at 260 off its initial surge and haven't looked back. ill re-buy this stock if it falls to the 220-200 area
Posted on 6/1/10 at 11:03 am to TheHiddenFlask
quote:
I think the iPad is a legit replacement for both a netbook and a kindle. I just so happen to have a need for neither of those. I think it could legitimately be a decent product in the long run.
I wouldn't consider it a netbook replacement, by virtue of the fact that it does not multitask, which is something every computer I've ever owned can do. Forget the no-name tablets that are coming. They might be infinitely superior products (they appear to be), but they won't compete with Apple because they don't have the marketing machine Apple does. But HP? Sony? Acer? LG? A tablet running win7, android os, or web os? Any of those companies can match Apple in terms of exposure (although certainly not savvy), and since all of them are releasing tablets in the next six months, I think people will gravitate towards those products en masse. There is growth in that industry for sure, I just don't think the iPad is going to capture it like the iPhone did, for the reasons stated in the last post.
Posted on 6/1/10 at 11:09 am to RedStickBR
quote:
I think the iPad buzz will be short-lived. I know someone who has one and it has got to be the most pointless thing I've ever seen. It's like a giant iPhone except you can't fit it in your pocket, it's awkward to hold b/c you're so worried about dropping it, and it was a huge fail not to include a camera on the front of it, if it even has one at all (I can't remember, but I know it's not on the front).
Thing is, it does everything all these e-readers do, plus a WHOLE LOT MORE, for not much more money than people have been shelling out for those things.
Posted on 6/1/10 at 11:16 am to Y.A. Tittle
You're comparing it to the wrong thing IMO. It's a substitute good for e-readers, which is why I compared the kindle to a betamax a couple of weeks ago in JT's thread. Compare the iPad to its real competition, other tablets, and it gets destroyed, in every sense of the word. The best thing that could happen is that competition would force AAPL to unlock their OS to make the device more competitive. Possible, but probably close to 0% chance of that happening.
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