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Message
re: Buying Apple stock tomorrow.
Posted on 6/1/10 at 5:51 pm to kfizzle85
Posted on 6/1/10 at 5:51 pm to kfizzle85
[quote]I wouldn't consider it a netbook replacement, by virtue of the fact that it does not multitask, which is something every computer I've ever owned can do.[quote]
The first update this summer for the iPad will include multitasking.
I've seen the projections today for Apple being raised to $340 -$360/share. They are projecting them moving 10 to 12 million iPads. Considering that and the iPhone 4G coming out, how can the guy above say it is going to retreat to $200?
Hell, a buddy of mine that works in education IT told me a school in Shreveport just placed an order for either 300 or 500 iPads, can't remember. Do the math if that opens up in a widespread manner.
Like I said, Apple is gold for a long time and even though Google seems to be getting more adversarial towards Apple and acting like they want to take them on, they'll never do it outsourcing their platforms.
The first update this summer for the iPad will include multitasking.
I've seen the projections today for Apple being raised to $340 -$360/share. They are projecting them moving 10 to 12 million iPads. Considering that and the iPhone 4G coming out, how can the guy above say it is going to retreat to $200?
Hell, a buddy of mine that works in education IT told me a school in Shreveport just placed an order for either 300 or 500 iPads, can't remember. Do the math if that opens up in a widespread manner.
Like I said, Apple is gold for a long time and even though Google seems to be getting more adversarial towards Apple and acting like they want to take them on, they'll never do it outsourcing their platforms.
1
Posted on 6/1/10 at 5:54 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
Compare the iPad to its real competition, other tablets, and it gets destroyed, in every sense of the word
Expound on that.
Posted on 6/1/10 at 6:02 pm to Scoop
quote:
The first update this summer for the iPad will include multitasking.
This is true, and not to be neglected. It will put them at the base level of competition with the rest of the tablet market.
quote:
I've seen the projections today for Apple being raised to $340 -$360/share. They are projecting them moving 10 to 12 million iPads. Considering that and the iPhone 4G coming out, how can the guy above say it is going to retreat to $200?
Analyst projections are absolutely and completely worthless. Invest on them and you will be disappointed. ETA: And that is the point I've been making throughout this thread relative to ipad/iphone/whatever sales and apple stock.
quote:
Hell, a buddy of mine that works in education IT told me a school in Shreveport just placed an order for either 300 or 500 iPads, can't remember. Do the math if that opens up in a widespread manner.
Do the math when it doesn't. I find it highly unlikely a bunch of cash-strapped school districts that are furloughing teachers are going to start dropping Gs on a singular, hard-to-justify, piece of technology. JMO.
quote:
Like I said, Apple is gold for a long time and even though Google seems to be getting more adversarial towards Apple and acting like they want to take them on, they'll never do it outsourcing their platforms.
Right, because putting windows on every hardware permutation imaginable has killed Microsoft.
quote:
Expound on that.
Go to engadget.com, techcrunch.com, gizmodo.com and search "tablet" and start reading.
This post was edited on 6/1/10 at 6:08 pm
Posted on 6/1/10 at 6:12 pm to kfizzle85
I don't trust anything I read when it comes to reviews or even board posts when it comes to Apple be they positive or negative.
There is always an agenda either way where Apple is concerned unlike any other tech entity.
There is always an agenda either way where Apple is concerned unlike any other tech entity.
Posted on 6/1/10 at 6:17 pm to Scoop
I agree wholeheartedly. I was actually thinking about how ridiculous its gotten in the past few months. Its almost to the point of being politard level dumb. Really amazing considering its just a bunch of computer dorks talking about fricking cell phones. 
Posted on 6/1/10 at 6:23 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
Do the math when it doesn't. I find it highly unlikely a bunch of cash-strapped school districts that are furloughing teachers are going to start dropping Gs on a singular, hard-to-justify, piece of technology. JMO.
Some of us were instrumental in raising flags and crushing a large scale lap top program for Cobb Co here that was going to be well up in the 10's of millions to provide every junior high and high school student with "free" lap tops. God that was a bad idea from the get-go, and then the obvious fraud was discovered and heads rolled. Frick school supers that think they are going to cram down special purpose taxes on people who are tired of their horrible fiscal management. Oh, and it was for Apple products. Ha, ha, ha, stick it ex-military officer turned school board president who tried to f the tax payers and got caught.
Posted on 6/1/10 at 6:31 pm to kfizzle85
Yep.
Back to the market, though, tech stocks got rolled today and Apple was up as much as 8 points before settling at around 4.
The iPad is going to be a huge revenue stream for a while.
Back to the market, though, tech stocks got rolled today and Apple was up as much as 8 points before settling at around 4.
The iPad is going to be a huge revenue stream for a while.
Posted on 6/1/10 at 6:40 pm to Scoop
As I said, the ipad will sell, that's a given, that is not the question. The question is whether the ipad (and the iphone for that matter) will sell relative to what the market is pricing in that it will sell. Apple makes the analysis even harder because they are simply without peer when it comes to sandbagging earnings expectations, and analysts still just blindly plop that number out there. I think the market builds in a premium above the touted analyst projections because it is absolutely a 1000% guarantee that they will beat projected earnings, and that skews PEs to whatever degree. You also can't underestimate their marketing abilities, and those effects definitely extend to how their stock is traded imo.
This post was edited on 6/1/10 at 6:42 pm
Posted on 6/1/10 at 6:56 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
As I said, the ipad will sell, that's a given, that is not the question. The question is whether the ipad (and the iphone for that matter) will sell relative to what the market is pricing in that it will sell.
Exactly. Price fluctuations all root back to PERCEIVED EXPECTATIONS of earnings, not the actual earnings.
Posted on 6/1/10 at 7:14 pm to kfizzle85
If I had the money, I'd place a huge short bet on Apple over the next 4-8 years (don't ask me how I'd go about doing that ). Revenue is driven by three segments (see chart below) and growth hinges on their ability to generate the next "new thing", which I have serious doubts about in the long-term. Of course brand image is a huge intangible, which AAPL obviously realizes, but even so I have my doubts about their ability to maintain it. Steve Jobs won't be around forever and consumer attitudes will undoubtedly change over time. Just my two cents...
). Revenue is driven by three segments (see chart below) and growth hinges on their ability to generate the next "new thing", which I have serious doubts about in the long-term. Of course brand image is a huge intangible, which AAPL obviously realizes, but even so I have my doubts about their ability to maintain it. Steve Jobs won't be around forever and consumer attitudes will undoubtedly change over time. Just my two cents... 
Posted on 6/1/10 at 7:20 pm to sneakytiger
Yes, that very clearly displays my feelings on their projected growth going forward. I stopped reading SAI like 2 years ago, but I might have to re-add them. Thanks for the chart. 
Posted on 6/1/10 at 10:00 pm to kfizzle85
Just wanted to say red alert was bad arse and i need to see if its compatable with vista and if i still got it
slash hijack
slash hijack
Posted on 6/2/10 at 8:04 am to sneakytiger
quote:
growth hinges on their ability to generate the next "new thing", which I have serious doubts about in the long-term
I've been doubting Apple's ability to do this for 20+ years...fwiw.
Posted on 6/2/10 at 9:46 am to ForeLSU
What did they do between mac and ipod? Nothing really, and [more importantly in this case], that is reflected by their stock price history. Look at a long term price chart and look at the absolutely massive run up in the past 5-6 years relative to the rest of the chart.
This allows me to hammer this point again. AAPL isn't valued like a mature company that produces good products that tend to supplement its revenue, like Microsoft. A TTM P/E of 22 for AAPL, vs a P/E of 13 for MS. Even GOOG, a relatively new company that is clearly still in growth stage, is valued a slightly lower PE. Again, its not about the absolute value of earnings, its about the rate of change. Point being that AAPL is priced at a valuation that equates its future growth rate at something similar to GOOG. Impossible? No, not at all. Unlikely? Yes, I think so. All that said, the stock will almost certainly jump again in the next month when they officially announce iphone 4. I'd be long the next 6 months and short the next 10 years.
This allows me to hammer this point again. AAPL isn't valued like a mature company that produces good products that tend to supplement its revenue, like Microsoft. A TTM P/E of 22 for AAPL, vs a P/E of 13 for MS. Even GOOG, a relatively new company that is clearly still in growth stage, is valued a slightly lower PE. Again, its not about the absolute value of earnings, its about the rate of change. Point being that AAPL is priced at a valuation that equates its future growth rate at something similar to GOOG. Impossible? No, not at all. Unlikely? Yes, I think so. All that said, the stock will almost certainly jump again in the next month when they officially announce iphone 4. I'd be long the next 6 months and short the next 10 years.
Posted on 6/2/10 at 12:42 pm to wizard of smart
quote:
Just wanted to say red alert was bad arse and i need to see if its compatable with vista and if i still got it
A while back they were releasing all the classic C&C's for FREE LEGAL DOWNLOAD to boost interest in the new one. Don't know if they're still available. Anyway the tiberium ones were always better than Red Alert FWIFW
Posted on 6/2/10 at 12:46 pm to Cold Cous Cous
Naw they brought in all kinds of bullshite in those. The best thing about Red Alert 2 was RedEdit, where you could change everything up. Strafer planes strafing with nukes, Grenadiers with nukes, k-9s with nukes. It was ridiculous and pointless, but funny. Red Alert 3 came out my freshman year at LSU, I think that was the last time I played any of them, or a computer game in general.
Posted on 6/2/10 at 3:48 pm to sneakytiger
China, bro.
Apple went from 9% market share for smart phones to 14% from 2008 to 2009 in China.
Nokia, which has the biggest market share in China, dropped in their market share as did all of the rest.
If Apple comes even close in China to what it did in Japan, where it has a 46% smart phone market share, Katie bar the door.
That's not even mentioning iPads in those markets.
Apple went from 9% market share for smart phones to 14% from 2008 to 2009 in China.
Nokia, which has the biggest market share in China, dropped in their market share as did all of the rest.
If Apple comes even close in China to what it did in Japan, where it has a 46% smart phone market share, Katie bar the door.
That's not even mentioning iPads in those markets.
Posted on 6/2/10 at 5:49 pm to Scoop
You better hope they dramatically restructure their economy and political system to jack up consumption then.
Posted on 6/16/10 at 3:58 pm to kfizzle85
At $300 without an upgrade, people in the middle of contracts are going to get one anyway.
I've had my 3GS for less than a year and I'm not even halfway through my AT&T contract and I preordered the 4 last night.
$300 bucks for an iPhone 4 is a decent enough price point that people are not going to wait on an upgrade.
It's gonna be huge.
I've had my 3GS for less than a year and I'm not even halfway through my AT&T contract and I preordered the 4 last night.
$300 bucks for an iPhone 4 is a decent enough price point that people are not going to wait on an upgrade.
It's gonna be huge.
This post was edited on 6/16/10 at 3:59 pm
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