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Started By
Message
Being proactive this week by insuring your portfolio
Posted on 1/14/25 at 8:14 am
Posted on 1/14/25 at 8:14 am
Rule number one: Don’t trade options before 9:30 central. Premiums are too juiced. Let things settle down.
- If the market is deep green after 9:30 use 1% of your portfolio to buy an out of the money PUT.
Reasoning: It looks like the market is anticipating good CPI data on Wednesday as well as good earnings for the major banks Wednesday through Friday so puts will be cheaper.
If CPI comes in hotter than expected your puts should print.
I’m talking 5-10x
That way you’ve manufactured cash to buy another dip.
If CPI looks good then you’ll lose most, if not all, of what you paid for the options, but the rest of your portfolio gains will far outweigh the loss.
It’s a hedge.
I’ll be looking at 1/17 puts around 575 to 580 on SPY
- If the market is deep green after 9:30 use 1% of your portfolio to buy an out of the money PUT.
Reasoning: It looks like the market is anticipating good CPI data on Wednesday as well as good earnings for the major banks Wednesday through Friday so puts will be cheaper.
If CPI comes in hotter than expected your puts should print.
I’m talking 5-10x
That way you’ve manufactured cash to buy another dip.
If CPI looks good then you’ll lose most, if not all, of what you paid for the options, but the rest of your portfolio gains will far outweigh the loss.
It’s a hedge.
I’ll be looking at 1/17 puts around 575 to 580 on SPY
This post was edited on 1/14/25 at 10:05 am
4
Posted on 1/14/25 at 8:42 am to bayoubengals88
I have no idea what any of this means.
Posted on 1/14/25 at 9:12 am to bayoubengals88
overnight / premarket sell orders rejected 585 and 510 (qqq), but we've bounced at 582 and 506.25
looking like deep green is in the cards and this will be a good play.
575p 1/17 going for $1.55 currently.
looking like deep green is in the cards and this will be a good play.
575p 1/17 going for $1.55 currently.
Posted on 1/14/25 at 9:38 am to bayoubengals88
too crabby and not green enough for me 
Posted on 1/14/25 at 10:52 am to jefforize
quote:
575p 1/17 going for $1.55 currently.
now $2.9
Posted on 1/14/25 at 11:01 am to jefforize
quote:Yep.
now $2.9
That's about where I wanted it. Just missed it.
Based on your violin, it appears that you didn't buy either.
Posted on 1/14/25 at 2:08 pm to bayoubengals88
indeed.
looks like CPI leaked at 2 pm, lol.
looks like CPI leaked at 2 pm, lol.
Posted on 1/14/25 at 3:55 pm to jefforize
quote:
looks like CPI leaked at 2 pm, lol.
One can hope.
Posted on 1/14/25 at 4:13 pm to Rize
quote:Good. It should all be ignored anyway.
I have no idea what any of this means.
Posted on 1/14/25 at 4:18 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:Imagine a trade idea on a Money Board...
Good. It should all be ignored anyway.
And this one was quite profitable.
I don't have these ideas every day, but it was clear that the set up was there.
Posted on 1/14/25 at 4:26 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:Any talk of options without even mentioning vol is a red flag.
Imagine a trade idea on a Money Board...
And this one was quite profitable.
I don't have these ideas every day, but it was clear that the set up was there.
Posted on 1/14/25 at 4:36 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:It’s SPY…
Any talk of options without even mentioning vol is a red flag.
Posted on 1/14/25 at 7:54 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:Yes and?
It’s SPY…
Posted on 1/15/25 at 4:41 am to bayoubengals88
Most options expire worthless.i think it’s around 70% historically.
I do think there can be an insurance role for people with extremely large positions in a single stock.
I do think there can be an insurance role for people with extremely large positions in a single stock.
Posted on 1/15/25 at 6:51 am to makersmark1
quote:
Most options expire worthless.i think it’s around 70% historically.
I would have to guess most options are bought OTM.
This post was edited on 1/15/25 at 6:53 am
Posted on 1/15/25 at 7:03 am to makersmark1
quote:Yes, probably higher. That’s why I mostly sell options.
Most options expire worthless.i think it’s around 70% historically.
Posted on 1/15/25 at 6:24 pm to Rize
quote:
I have no idea what any of this means.
quote:
Rule number one: Don’t trade options before 9:30 central. Premiums are too juiced. Let things settle down.
We'll have cleared out all the suckers by then.
Posted on 1/15/25 at 7:25 pm to Bestbank Tiger
By the way, exactly what I thought would happened has occurred. This trade was always just a hedge. And as you can see above, I never placed the order anyway.
Posted on 1/15/25 at 8:14 pm to Rize
quote:
have no idea what any of this means.
More serious translation:
An option gives you the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell at a specific price during a certain time period. A sell option is called a put.
Outside the money means it's a worse deal at the current price than just making a regular trade. So if Acme is at $100, a put for $95 is OTM, since you're better off selling for $100. If the price falls to $90 you win because you're selling at a higher price. If it stays over $95 you lose when the put expires.
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