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Message
Are you worried about equities
Posted on 11/21/17 at 10:40 am
Posted on 11/21/17 at 10:40 am
We have seen a huge amount of growth in equity markets recently and I have seen quite a few groups saying there Is reason to take note of warning signs. Everything from how firms are cash light to the junk stock issues recently, I wouldn’t be surprised if markets leveled off quite a bit.
6
Posted on 11/21/17 at 10:56 am to athenslife101
Over due for a big market correction overall. Liquidity going to dry up.
Posted on 11/21/17 at 11:01 am to LSURep864
It already has. Fund managers have been complaining there just isn’t enough cash.
Posted on 11/21/17 at 12:27 pm to athenslife101
I only "worry" about equities when it is a signal that layoffs are coming for those I care about.
Hence, while you should generally stay the course when things go to hell, it is harder to do that in real life when you may lose your job.
Hence, while you should generally stay the course when things go to hell, it is harder to do that in real life when you may lose your job.
Posted on 11/21/17 at 12:48 pm to athenslife101
quote:
there just isn’t enough cash.
Can you reference?
Posted on 11/21/17 at 12:56 pm to athenslife101
I'm not doubting a market correction coming sometime in the relative near future, but I can't help but think about reading this board back in September 2015 and hearing guys getting into cash and sitting on sidelines.
I guess I have to imagine those guys got back in sooner rather than later. Can't imagine missing out on the last 2 years of gains the market has seen.
I guess I have to imagine those guys got back in sooner rather than later. Can't imagine missing out on the last 2 years of gains the market has seen.
Posted on 11/21/17 at 2:39 pm to athenslife101
Most global funds I’ve run across have been pretty cash heavy, most banks are very cash heavy, most of my clients are very cash heavy... not sure where you’ve got that information..
also earnings are beating estimates and justifying market gains. We are at a p/e of 18 on the s&p so we are at full value but not extended, especially when you account for low interest rates. Then you bring in the opportunity that corporate tax rate will likely get lowered so the we will see more gains.
We certainly are overdue for market volatility, yet the warning signs aren’t there.
also earnings are beating estimates and justifying market gains. We are at a p/e of 18 on the s&p so we are at full value but not extended, especially when you account for low interest rates. Then you bring in the opportunity that corporate tax rate will likely get lowered so the we will see more gains.
We certainly are overdue for market volatility, yet the warning signs aren’t there.
Posted on 11/21/17 at 2:43 pm to LSUcam7
Posted on 11/21/17 at 3:33 pm to athenslife101
Move some equities into real estate maybe, with rates being as low as they are?
This post was edited on 11/21/17 at 3:34 pm
Posted on 11/21/17 at 4:33 pm to Shepherd88
quote:
Most global funds I’ve run across have been pretty cash heavy, most banks are very cash heavy, most of my clients are very cash heavy...
Lol, not in my industry at all.
quote:
Then you bring in the opportunity that corporate tax rate will likely get lowered so the we will see more gains.
I agree. Whether that is responsible growth remains to be seen. Saw something today that may be bogus so I will look into it more but yes. This will drive stock price even higher.
quote:
yet the warning signs aren’t there.
It’s akways a little risky when looking at wanting sigbs. But they are out there.
Just look at the inflation rate. The inflation rate is way way too low for the amount of “growth” we’ve been having. Or thebsigns that show that speculation usually reserved for non-investment grade securities has dropped and been placed with rwuities
Posted on 11/21/17 at 6:20 pm to athenslife101
there are some signs and I think we're overdue for a correction. with that said I'm not sure it's a major dip or long one. a minor pullback might scare people enough to cause a much bigger one honestly.
lots of dumb money out there right now.
lots of dumb money out there right now.
Posted on 11/21/17 at 10:40 pm to oklahogjr
All this money flowing into passives is going to make things interesting. I believe it's contributing to the lack of volatility but will rear its ugly head at some point.
Posted on 11/22/17 at 12:23 pm to Dellort
quote:
All this money flowing into passives is going to make things interesting.
This. All indexes will have pressure simultaneously when the rush for exits starts. Should be interesting.
Posted on 11/22/17 at 2:18 pm to athenslife101
As long as the Fed keeps interest rates at stupid low percentages , equities will be fine. However, the Fed should raise rates to balance the market out. But, I don't see it happening any time soon.
Posted on 11/22/17 at 4:11 pm to athenslife101
quote:
LINK
quote:
Managers’ cash levels hit 4-year low
You say liquidity has dried up?
This quote does not mean that cash is not readily available. We are in a very liquid monetary environment, and inflation is starting to pick up along with money velocity.
quote:
The survey of 206 money managers representing $610 billion in assets under management combined was conducted Nov. 3-9.
206 money managers and $600B...
1) What the article says is that money managers have invested most of the cash currently available to them. New flows are coming in every year (domestic & foreign) and demand is outpacing supply.
2) Cash is not king. Active money managers are dying left and right and performance is the reason. Cash is a drag on performance at <1% interest.
I’m not saying that you are wrong, and I’m not commenting on the markets at all. I just think you should understand the bigger picture before making claims.
Liquidity is literally one of the last issues this economy faces. Banks are just now starting to ramp up commercial lending and should lend more if/when regulation becomes less of a burden, capital requirements ease up, etc.
This post was edited on 11/22/17 at 10:24 pm
Posted on 11/23/17 at 5:31 pm to athenslife101
Main thing to watch at this point is the tax reform bill. If it fails to pass...look out. Charts will tell all.
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