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Amount of downpayment for home purchase
Posted on 10/11/18 at 9:50 am
Posted on 10/11/18 at 9:50 am
I'm planning to buy a home in the next ~12 months and I'm beginning to plan for the purchase.
I expect that I could pay upwards of 50% down but I suspect it would be better to pay 20% down and invest the difference (or maintain liquidity)?
I expect that I could pay upwards of 50% down but I suspect it would be better to pay 20% down and invest the difference (or maintain liquidity)?
Posted on 10/11/18 at 9:56 am to lynxcat
VGT, VTI, YOLO
Interest rates are rising, but historically they're still low. I'd pay down 20% and keep some liquidity so that you have some flexibility
Interest rates are rising, but historically they're still low. I'd pay down 20% and keep some liquidity so that you have some flexibility
Posted on 10/11/18 at 10:02 am to lynxcat
I would personally put 20% down and keep the extra flexible. But I don't think anyone could fault you for putting up to 50% down on a house. It's all about preference.
I wouldn't go any lower than 20% though.
I wouldn't go any lower than 20% though.
Posted on 10/11/18 at 10:50 am to lynxcat
Everything above 20% is a win. PMI sucks or so I am told. Just leave yourself a comfortable note with the shortest term possible.
Posted on 10/11/18 at 11:07 am to lynxcat
20% minimum and more if you can’t guarantee at least 6-7 % return on your investment.
Posted on 10/11/18 at 12:26 pm to lynxcat
20%. You don’t see extra benefits after 20%, and your money is better invested right now
Posted on 10/11/18 at 3:50 pm to lynxcat
quote:Since you won’t have to worry about PMI with 20% or more mdown, and I doubt the extra down payment interest rate will impact the interest rate at that point, then unless rates jump to some significantly, then two of the major considerations for a larger downpayment are already taken care of.
I expect that I could pay upwards of 50% down but I suspect it would be better to pay 20% down and invest the difference (or maintain liquidity)?
And as you pointed out, now the most obvious considerations are whether the opportunity costs of the extra downpayment with less liquidity and flexibility makes it worthwhile, specifically compared to other investments and their returns.
But I think another consideration that has been mentioned are the tax implications such as:
1. Would the extra downpayment require you to withdraw from a taxable account and pay taxes on any of the withdrawn amount? If so, then that’s an extra cost, one way or the other.
2. Would you be able to itemize the interest? If so, the extra interest with the lesser down payment would not be as costly as if you took the standard deduction?
From a purely financial perceptive, it just seems that the the extra down payment is less likely to provide a better value. So then it becomes an issue of psychology: less debt and lower monthly payments with a smaller reserve fund v. more flexibility with a larger reserve fund.
Posted on 10/11/18 at 4:28 pm to hottub
quote:Well nobody can guarantee that return unless "risk-less" investments rise to that level, which would likely mean the rate on his mortgage would likely change as well.
20% minimum and more if you can’t guarantee at least 6-7 % return on your investment.
But I don't know where you get that figure from. As an example, if he was purchasing a $500,000 home, then 20% would $100,000 and 50% would be $250,000. And let's assume he has a 5% rate, plans to sell in 10 years, never refinances, invests either the $150,000 upfront or invests the difference of the lower payment monthly, and both have a return of 5%.
So the $400,000 loan would have a monthly payment of $2147.29 while the $250,000 loan would have a monthly payment of $1342.05 for a difference of $805.24 to invest monthly with the $250,000 loan
Costs (Down Payment and 120 monthly payments)
$400,000 Loan---$357,675
$250,000 Loan---$411,946
Advantage---$53,371 for the $400,000 loan
Remaining Balance (more equity)
$400,000 Loan---$325,368
$250,000 Loan---$203,356
Advantage---$122,012 for $250,000 loan
Investment Return at 5% (upfront v. monthly)
$400,000 Loan---$244,334
$250,000 Loan---$124,806
Advantage---$119,538 for $400,000
Total Return ($400,000 loan - $250,000 loan
$53,371 + $119,538 - $122,012 = $50,897
So even with even with safe 5% return, the lower down payment would result in a net gain over the larger down payment. And since the lower down payment is likely to have more deductible expenses, and the returns are likely more than 5%, then there is no need to guarantee a 6% or 7% return unless rates rise significantly.
Posted on 10/11/18 at 4:31 pm to buckeye_vol
Agreed. Rising rates will make the decision more interesting moving forward IMO.
Posted on 10/11/18 at 5:20 pm to buckeye_vol
Great analysis, thanks for taking the time to write it out.
Agree with the next poster that the equilibrium point may shift if mortgage interest rates rise even higher. For now, investing the difference is the better financial play.
Agree with the next poster that the equilibrium point may shift if mortgage interest rates rise even higher. For now, investing the difference is the better financial play.
Posted on 10/11/18 at 5:29 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
buckeye_vol
Great breakdown and this is a little misunderstanding on my part.
I think it is very hard to say what to do with a down payment ~12 months from now, though. Market, interest rates, OP earning potential, etc. could look very different.
Posted on 10/11/18 at 6:34 pm to lynxcat
Much depends on your rate. Also find out how much (if any) you can itemize. That will reduce your effective rate as well.
But for most people, 20% down isn't a bad move.
But for most people, 20% down isn't a bad move.
Posted on 10/11/18 at 7:31 pm to foshizzle
quote:The problem is 20% down seems so arbitrary, and the government incentives and regulations just seem so counterintuitive at times.
Much depends on your rate. Also find out how much (if any) you can itemize. That will reduce your effective rate as well.
But for most people, 20% down isn't a bad move.
It is such a complex process, yet when I started researching FICO scores, PMI, etc., it’s amazing how unnecessarily simple some of it is.
For example, I had a collections bill on my credit report that I thought was from a Dr.’s appointment right before I moved down to Tennessee for grad school in 2010 and right before the Dr restored. It was like $60.
But when I looked into it, I realized I hadn’t caught it before because it was from years later, and discovered that it was a billing error when the hospital switched systems.
And then I pulled all 27 FICO scores and discovered the scores mortgage lenders use, are from the models designed before the housing crash.
And not only were they old, there have been two sets of updates models, and the newest been out for years. In addition, the credit agencies, FICO, and the fed have researched them and found that they predict risk better than the old models still in use. And one of the major changes was less emphasis on small medical collections.
So after disputing the charges with each agency, they removed it, and my scores jumped 50 to 60 points each. Since PMI and mortgage rates are based on the same score, one incorrect medical collection for $60 could have have increased my costs over 10 years by almost $20,000.
This post was edited on 10/11/18 at 7:33 pm
Posted on 10/11/18 at 8:18 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
Since PMI and mortgage rates are based on the same score, one incorrect medical collection for $60 could have have increased my costs over 10 years by almost $20,000.
That's the point of credit scores. People who pay close attention to the most minor bills are good credit risks.
It's generally safe to lend money to someone who will go to the trouble of chasing down minor debts. Someone who lets small debts slide might not be.
When you are lending money to someone, you want to know that the borrower will do whatever is needed to get things squared away no matter what the balance. I'm fine with lending to someone who chases me down to straighten out a $5 debt. Someone who lets a $60 bill go by for several years because he wan't paying attention? Not really. I don't care about the $60, I care about your lack of respect for getting your debt squared away.
Posted on 10/11/18 at 9:10 pm to foshizzle
quote:Actually I think that was largely a flawed misconception, and why the new models place far less emphasis on them, while being better predictors of risk.
That's the point of credit scores. People who pay close attention to the most minor bills are good credit risks.
It also may be the fact that unlike most bills, like energy, cable, etc., medical bills seem especially prone to errors. How many different doctors, health care systems, and billing systems exist, especially with potentially few resources to handle billing and technology changes? The year my son was born, between my wife and him, I probably spent hours navigating various online payment systems. And those were for a few hundred dollars in deductibles and copays for tens of thousands of dollars in procedures, and luckily most were from a couple huge hospital organizations.
But even putting aside that it was a BILLING ERROR, do you really think that the OLD MODELS used when the housing market crash, were good at measuring risk when one $60 medical bill can can change a credit score by 60 points, especially since it was counter all other payments, loans, and lines credit?
And here is maybe the most asinine thing. Since I paid for myFICO and Experian credit services to figure it all out. I used both of their credit change projectors, and they that estimated medical claim for even a couple dollars, lowers the score by those 50-60 points, but a medical claim for tens of thousands of dollars was treated the same.
Posted on 10/11/18 at 9:26 pm to foshizzle
quote:The other response was getting too long, and this is different topic than the models anyways.
Someone who lets a $60 bill go by for several years because he wan't paying attention? Not really. I don't care about the $60, I care about your lack of respect for getting your debt squared away.
But did you not read my post? didn’t owe anyone $60. It was an error. And when the billing error occurred, I had moved 3 different times and have no correspondence from the claims agency.
And I had discovered it when I pulled a credit report a while before I started the process. Since I thought it was legit, I searched the agency from the report, and called multiple times with no responses, and it did not have an online access to pay a bill.
And when I tried again when we were starting the process, I was lucky that I mentioned it to my parents because they got a billing error, and we were lucky my aunt works at the hospital because we found out they were sending incorrect bills to a bunch of patients.
So maybe I should have done more diligence earlier, but how does that show my lack of respect? And what kind of respect is making systemic billing errors AND still sending the bills to collections? It’s actually incompetence, but I guess I should have known since it’s a small-town hospital.
Posted on 10/11/18 at 9:44 pm to buckeye_vol
O and I forgot to add this.
My wife didn’t have much of a credit history at all. So what was recommended? Add her and as an authorized user on my credit card. All of sudden she had a credit history, with all of its on-time payments, dating back years before we even met. And while we went with my score, her score jumped 40 points.
So an imaginary credit history improves her score 40 points, and an incorrect medical bill dropped mine by 60 points.
It ultimately worked out because I got the bill straightened out, but for such a complex process, which understandable when lending a hundreds of thousands of dollars, can be impacted by the things above, and change the costs by tens of thousands of dollars.
My wife didn’t have much of a credit history at all. So what was recommended? Add her and as an authorized user on my credit card. All of sudden she had a credit history, with all of its on-time payments, dating back years before we even met. And while we went with my score, her score jumped 40 points.
So an imaginary credit history improves her score 40 points, and an incorrect medical bill dropped mine by 60 points.
It ultimately worked out because I got the bill straightened out, but for such a complex process, which understandable when lending a hundreds of thousands of dollars, can be impacted by the things above, and change the costs by tens of thousands of dollars.
Posted on 10/12/18 at 9:53 am to buckeye_vol
When is a good time to pull an official credit score report in the home buying process? I monitor monthly via credit karma but I understand there are more official reports available.
Posted on 10/12/18 at 4:10 pm to lynxcat
quote:Well at least at it pertains to items on your report, Credit Karma has data from Equifax and Transunion, so that’s probably accurate for those two agencies.
When is a good time to pull an official credit score report in the home buying process? I monitor monthly via credit karma but I understand there are more official reports available.
And since the only remaining agency is Experian, then maybe that’s the one you should specifically pull and it never hurts to do it sooner rather than later.
Also although you have to pay for, Experian will also provide the actual FICO credit scores for all 3 agencies that will be used for mortgage lending along with the one time reports for all 3. They will also provide updates to any changes to Experian’s reports and scores.
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