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Posted on 7/27/26 at 1:13 pm to bayoubengals88
again I could be wrong, but my confidence is high that the downside here is limited and the upside is mouthwatering. This range it’s in have proven to both be hard to breach at the top and a hard bottom. It’s unlikely (and the math backs it up) that just based on current revenue and conservative guidance the price falls thru that bottom. In other words it’s below fair value
Posted on 7/28/26 at 12:28 pm to cgrand
Back over 22. I choose to believe the last dip was a shakeout before earnings. Let’s fricking go
Maybe some positive waves will help LOL
Maybe some positive waves will help LOL
Posted on 7/28/26 at 12:33 pm to cgrand
Whats the general feeling on the target price for this one?
Posted on 7/28/26 at 1:24 pm to Sabans straw hat
above 25 LOL.
30s would be fantastic 40s-50s eventually. Needs the revenue, the compounding profit, and the rerating (the most important part).
No shirt, no rerating, no dice
If it got a better multiple right now it would be 30-40
This earnings needs to be a home run
30s would be fantastic 40s-50s eventually. Needs the revenue, the compounding profit, and the rerating (the most important part).
No shirt, no rerating, no dice
If it got a better multiple right now it would be 30-40
This earnings needs to be a home run
This post was edited on 7/28/26 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 7/28/26 at 1:54 pm to cgrand
by the way there was meaningful news yesterday, they closed a $1B line of credit to be used partly for acquisitions. Very high chance that if they do announce an acquisition it will be at least partially dilutive. Market don’t like that in the short term. They’ve pledged to be less dilutive with stock comp going forward so let’s see
Posted on 7/29/26 at 7:30 pm to cgrand
touched 23 today and then recovered nicely AH after the afternoon dip. Never lost 21. There are buyers which makes me feel more confident
Up almost 10% for the week and holding high 21-22 no problem. 4 more trading days until earnings
ZETA is carrying me right now with pretty heavy declines in other positions
Up almost 10% for the week and holding high 21-22 no problem. 4 more trading days until earnings
ZETA is carrying me right now with pretty heavy declines in other positions
Posted on 8/3/26 at 11:14 am to cgrand
Claude’s take on earnings tomorrow, implied move, relative valuation.
The most useful thing in this setup is what the street is not doing. Consensus revenue for the quarter Zeta reports Tuesday August 4 sits 0.03 percent above the midpoint of the company's own guidance, and the full year number is within rounding of the company's own figure. After nineteen consecutive quarters of beat and raise, analysts have essentially stopped pricing the pattern. Either they are right that it ends, or there is a gap between the record and the expectation.
I am not treating that as free money. The options market is pricing a 16.5 percent move in either direction, the widest this stock has ever implied, so whatever edge exists in the pattern is being taxed heavily by the cost of the ride. And the bear case is specific rather than vague: growth decelerates from about 35 percent headline to 20 percent excluding acquisitions and election spending to about 16 percent next year, stock compensation exceeded free cash flow last quarter, and a shareholder suit alleging revenue was inflated through circular deals survived dismissal on July 8.
I hold it at 10.25 percent of the book, the largest individual stock position I have, up more than 30 percent since purchase, with a probability weighted value near $24 against $22.42 today.
Sharing the reasoning, not the trade
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. The most useful thing in this setup is what the street is not doing. Consensus revenue for the quarter Zeta reports Tuesday August 4 sits 0.03 percent above the midpoint of the company's own guidance, and the full year number is within rounding of the company's own figure. After nineteen consecutive quarters of beat and raise, analysts have essentially stopped pricing the pattern. Either they are right that it ends, or there is a gap between the record and the expectation.
I am not treating that as free money. The options market is pricing a 16.5 percent move in either direction, the widest this stock has ever implied, so whatever edge exists in the pattern is being taxed heavily by the cost of the ride. And the bear case is specific rather than vague: growth decelerates from about 35 percent headline to 20 percent excluding acquisitions and election spending to about 16 percent next year, stock compensation exceeded free cash flow last quarter, and a shareholder suit alleging revenue was inflated through circular deals survived dismissal on July 8.
I hold it at 10.25 percent of the book, the largest individual stock position I have, up more than 30 percent since purchase, with a probability weighted value near $24 against $22.42 today.
Sharing the reasoning, not the trade
This post was edited on 8/3/26 at 11:16 am
Posted on 8/3/26 at 12:18 pm to cgrand
ZETA is expected to report a GAAP positive EPS for the first quarter ever in Q2 2026. If it’s high enough (and they do it again Q3) it is possible they could be GAAP profitable for the trailing 12 months. And if they do that, it opens up investment for many institutions that have a policy against buying companies that lose money.
Vanguard reported a 5+% stake in last 13G. I will say that the large buy I made last month in the 17s was in a vanguard account and it filled the instant the market opened at a very favorable price relative to Schwab. It was enough shares where it would have been broken up on Schwab.
Posted on 8/3/26 at 6:07 pm to cgrand
To me this the primary bull case for ZETA. PLTR is printing money, 63 bucks on every 100 of revenue is free cash flow. ZETA has a 7 year market agreement with PLTR, where they have instant access to all those commercial clients who are already spending gobs of money
Palantir is also really expensive. You are buying future revenue way out into the future. Fair value is right where it’s trading based on FCF.
But ZETA is really undervalued IF they can execute. Big day tomorrow
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Palantir is also really expensive. You are buying future revenue way out into the future. Fair value is right where it’s trading based on FCF.
But ZETA is really undervalued IF they can execute. Big day tomorrow
This post was edited on 8/3/26 at 6:11 pm
Posted on 8/3/26 at 6:12 pm to cgrand
We’ll all be rooting for your big payoff!
Posted on 8/4/26 at 3:14 pm to bayoubengals88
Posted on 8/4/26 at 3:23 pm to cgrand
Hmmm....received a notification from Robinhood that Zeta had reported $.03 per share missing estimates by $.12???
Posted on 8/4/26 at 3:26 pm to Cajun75
Posted on 8/4/26 at 4:21 pm to cgrand
Let us know your thoughts. I’m in Januarys
Posted on 8/4/26 at 4:30 pm to bayoubengals88
listening to the call, its very informative. basically, momentum is enormous with lots of growth ahead. they are buying back stock very heavily which is encouraging.
i think one of the issues is that the business is complicated. hard to quantify into the traditional market markers that cause a re-rate. and i think theres skepticism about their competitive advantage, a remnant of the "mar-tech" market segment theyve been in.
they are talking a lot about their pipeline going forward. might be a one more quarter wait & see.
flat for the day so its not a disaster by any means. they crushed the quarter but arent being rewarded yet
i think one of the issues is that the business is complicated. hard to quantify into the traditional market markers that cause a re-rate. and i think theres skepticism about their competitive advantage, a remnant of the "mar-tech" market segment theyve been in.
they are talking a lot about their pipeline going forward. might be a one more quarter wait & see.
flat for the day so its not a disaster by any means. they crushed the quarter but arent being rewarded yet
Posted on 8/4/26 at 4:32 pm to cgrand
So why did the stock pull back after-hours?
The move was driven primarily by a focus on organic growth. While the headline +44% is eye-catching, analysts and traders are zeroing in on organic (ex-M&A) growth, which came in at roughly 28%, with Q3 guidance implying a further step-down to the ~23–24% range. Some interpreted this as a deceleration in “clean” growth. That, combined with sell-the-news dynamics following a strong pre-earnings run-up, weighed on the stock.
Why this isn’t a cause for concern:
This looks like a classic “good numbers, bad reaction” setup. The company posted its 20th consecutive beat-and-raise quarter, turned GAAP-positive, meaningfully raised full-year guidance (GAAP EPS up over 300% at the midpoint), grew free cash flow by 73%, and continued strengthening its AI infrastructure narrative with solid customer metrics. Organic growth remains healthy in the high-20s, and management has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to execute above expectations. The after-hours drop looks like a sentiment- and technical-driven reaction rather than a fundamental disappointment.
The move was driven primarily by a focus on organic growth. While the headline +44% is eye-catching, analysts and traders are zeroing in on organic (ex-M&A) growth, which came in at roughly 28%, with Q3 guidance implying a further step-down to the ~23–24% range. Some interpreted this as a deceleration in “clean” growth. That, combined with sell-the-news dynamics following a strong pre-earnings run-up, weighed on the stock.
Why this isn’t a cause for concern:
This looks like a classic “good numbers, bad reaction” setup. The company posted its 20th consecutive beat-and-raise quarter, turned GAAP-positive, meaningfully raised full-year guidance (GAAP EPS up over 300% at the midpoint), grew free cash flow by 73%, and continued strengthening its AI infrastructure narrative with solid customer metrics. Organic growth remains healthy in the high-20s, and management has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to execute above expectations. The after-hours drop looks like a sentiment- and technical-driven reaction rather than a fundamental disappointment.
This post was edited on 8/4/26 at 4:33 pm
Posted on 8/4/26 at 4:44 pm to cgrand
analysts are asking very detailed questions about deal mechanics and the pipeline. PLTR getting a lot of discussion, analysts want to know all about it (all of a sudden). i will be surprised if price targets arent increased soon
cant eat a price target though
cant eat a price target though
Posted on 8/4/26 at 5:13 pm to cgrand
Sounds good. I may average down on January $20s tomorrow.
I made 18% on QLYS after hours on a rather large trade
I made 18% on QLYS after hours on a rather large trade
Posted on 8/4/26 at 6:40 pm to bayoubengals88
settled after the drop in the high 22's. right back where it started the day. i think its going to be fine and momentum will continue. there was too much good in that report. we will just have to be patient on the stock price. the company is executing
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