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Started By
Message
3 more yrs of zero interest
Posted on 9/16/20 at 5:50 pm
Posted on 9/16/20 at 5:50 pm
So I fully admit that I am no where near as astute on macro economic and banking as most of you put this just seems like the FED is asking for trouble.
MT gurus please put my mind at ease.
MT gurus please put my mind at ease.
7
Posted on 9/16/20 at 6:39 pm to GREENHEAD22
quote:
MT gurus please put my mind at ease.
We are in uncharted territory
Posted on 9/16/20 at 6:44 pm to GREENHEAD22
Up is Down. In the log run debt will come due. Period.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 7:34 pm to Azazello
For the USA maybe, this has been tried before, ie Japan and it didn't have good results.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 8:19 pm to GREENHEAD22
Gold
Preferred Stock
Avoid leveraged companies - their bubble will burst.
Bonds will be hurt at some point when rates start to rise.
Preferred Stock
Avoid leveraged companies - their bubble will burst.
Bonds will be hurt at some point when rates start to rise.
This post was edited on 9/16/20 at 10:05 pm
Posted on 9/16/20 at 8:47 pm to GREENHEAD22
What did japan do? Please explain
Posted on 9/16/20 at 8:56 pm to Dandaman
Posted on 9/16/20 at 9:22 pm to GREENHEAD22
the fed doesn't know what they're going to do 6 months from now, much less for the next 3 years. I wouldn't put much stock into what they say. It's a war; disinformation is more convenient than truth.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 10:18 pm to GREENHEAD22
My take: Fed is desperate for inflation because they view it as the solution to the ballooning debt and are even more concerned about deflationary forces.
Their asset purchases, forward guidance and interest rate policy might be viewed as inflationary but for weak aggregate demand that is likely to persist much longer than a quick V shaped recovery would have suggested.
Even though inflation would be a brutal tax on the U.S’s aging population, the Fed and short term minded politicians would prefer it to the uncomfortable belt tightening austerity would require.
Thus, rather than do what’s right, they’re doing what they view as expedient. The problem for them is that their policies continue to experience diminishing marginal returns, such that the inflation they wish to create may prove elusive.
If we’re finally forced to take our medicine, that’s likely bearish for stocks, bullish for safe haven assets like government bonds and the dollar, and bad for individuals, governments and companies who have become overly indebted.
Their asset purchases, forward guidance and interest rate policy might be viewed as inflationary but for weak aggregate demand that is likely to persist much longer than a quick V shaped recovery would have suggested.
Even though inflation would be a brutal tax on the U.S’s aging population, the Fed and short term minded politicians would prefer it to the uncomfortable belt tightening austerity would require.
Thus, rather than do what’s right, they’re doing what they view as expedient. The problem for them is that their policies continue to experience diminishing marginal returns, such that the inflation they wish to create may prove elusive.
If we’re finally forced to take our medicine, that’s likely bearish for stocks, bullish for safe haven assets like government bonds and the dollar, and bad for individuals, governments and companies who have become overly indebted.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 11:10 pm to RedStickBR
They have been trying to ramp up inflation for decades with no success.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 2:54 am to RedStickBR
ubi will get us inflation that we need dude. just you wait dude. coming sooner than later. few understand
Posted on 9/17/20 at 7:07 am to schexyoung
I think the chances of deflation are also the highest they’ve been in a while. Some countries are already there or almost there:
This post was edited on 9/17/20 at 9:06 am
Posted on 9/17/20 at 7:55 am to Mr Perfect
quote:
ubi will get us inflation that we need dude. just you wait dude. coming sooner than later. few understand
When do you expect that to show up in the bond market?
Posted on 9/17/20 at 8:10 am to RedStickBR
dude I'm not bullish on usd or bonds at all. gl w that theory
Posted on 9/17/20 at 8:15 am to Mr Perfect
I wasn’t assuming you were bullish on bonds. You seemed to suggest inflation was coming. If that were obvious, you’d see it in the bond market in the form of higher yields, especially on longer dated bonds. But so far the bond market doesn’t appear to be concerned about inflation in the slightest. Hence my question: when do you expect it to start showing up?
Posted on 9/17/20 at 8:25 am to GREENHEAD22
It's going to be good for the stock market while it lasts
Posted on 9/17/20 at 8:52 am to RedStickBR
i think fed wants inflation but nothing they are doing is causing inflation to happen. m2 chart says money is not circulating like they want it to be. ppl are nervous right now so that's why I think ubi could come to give ppl confidence that govt will print them a check every month and spend spend spend
two great twitter follows and writers for me are @preston psych and @jeffbooth
price of tomorrow very great book for us thinkers.
two great twitter follows and writers for me are @preston psych and @jeffbooth
price of tomorrow very great book for us thinkers.
This post was edited on 9/17/20 at 8:52 am
Posted on 9/17/20 at 9:07 am to Mr Perfect
quote:
price of tomorrow very great book for us thinkers.
That does look interesting - thanks.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 9:22 am to Mr Perfect
quote:
for us thinkers.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 9:27 am to Dandaman
Careful on the Japanese comparisons. Our QE programs are much different than theirs and Europe.
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