What happens if LSU loses to A&M but beats Bama and wins out?

Im concerned a two loss LSU could miss it.
It shouldnt happen but it could happen
We need:
4 SEC
3 B10
2 B12
2 ACC
1 G5
Some projections have B10 with four teams.

We are pulling for IU, Iowa state, BYU, Clemson , and Miami to drop some games

Just win Baby

We fire BK of course

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In a division-less SEC we aren’t making it to Atlanta and missing out on a bid. We’re not getting dinged for a loss that others got to avoid

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That isn’t true unfortunately. We saw that happen just last year in a 4 team playoff. Georgia had only one loss, to Bama in the SECCG and they got left out

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if we get 2 losses we want to slip in the playoffs like bama has done in the past without playing in the SECCG

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This is my concern as well.

I'm worried we drop another and go 10-2 that we are probably sitting between 8-10

We lose to UGA or Tex in SEC champ, could bump us out

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And Texas beats A&M?

Looks like LSU dodges having to play in the SECCG and gets into the playoff over the loser of the SECCG

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I wouldn’t be so sure about that.

In your hypothetical it’s likely to be a 4-way tie between LSU, A&M, Texas, and the winner of UGA/Tenn (likely UGA IMO).

That’s 4 teams at 7-1. The first four tiebreakers are:
1. Head to head record
2. Record vs. all common opponents
3. Record vs. best common opponent
4. Opponents’ SEC win%

So for that 4-way tie:
1. There is no head to head.
2. There are no common opponents.
3. See #2.
4. I think UGA likely has the best SEC schedule out of the four teams. So they get a spot in the SECCG, and the tiebreakers reset.

Now it’s a 3-way tie for second between LSU, A&M, and Texas.
1. A&M played both teams but went 1-1, so no head to head tiebreak.
2. The only common opponents are Florida and Arkansas. All three teams went 2-0.
3. Same as #2.
4. We know Texas doesn’t have the best conference schedule. It’s either LSU or A&M. LSU’s SEC opponents are currently 16-15. A&M’s SEC opponents are currently 13-17. Playing Mississippi State and Auburn hurts them a lot.

So in the scenario you described, there’s a very good chance that LSU goes to the SECCG at 10-2 to face Georgia, while 11-1 Texas and 10-2 Texas A&M stay home. You could also have Tennessee and Missouri sitting at 10-2 despite not being in contention for the SECCG.

Thanks for typing that up.

Would rather not play in the SECG in that scenario!

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So we have to win the SEC to get to the playoff?

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I wouldn’t say that.

If we win the SECCG (finishing either 12-1 or 11-2) we are in as an auto bid.

If we win out and lose in the SECCG (finishing 11-2), we are almost certainly in.

If we drop one and fail to make the SECCG (finishing 10-2) we are probably in depending on the rest of the landscape.

If we drop one, make the SECCG, and lose (finishing 10-3) we are probably in depending on the rest of the landscape.

The SEC isn’t that likely to have 6 teams at 10-2 or better. But it is a possibility. However, even if that happens it doesn’t mean LSU gets left out at 10-2 or 10-3. It just means somebody (probably 2 teams IMO) gets left out.

So if you want a guaranteed spot yeah, you have to win the conference. But that was always the case - those are literally the only guaranteed spots.

ETA: This is why I said that UGA beating Texas may not actually be good for us. Ideally we’d like some of the 1-2 loss SEC teams to start dropping out of playoff contention. Texas isn’t likely to lose 2 more because of their schedule - it looks like they finish 10-2 at worst, but UGA still has to play Tennessee and Ole Miss.

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That isn’t true unfortunately. We saw that happen just last year in a 4 team playoff. Georgia had only one loss, to Bama in the SECCG and they got left out

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Lucky for us it’s not a 4 team playoff