re: What do LSU fans realize that experts do not regarding Texas game?

Texas doesn’t get respect from LSU fans because their conference is garbage mostly and they haven’t been relevant in a decade. They are a good team but I don’t think they are as good as the media wants them to be yet. They have the ability to win the big game and knock off an LSU team or Oklahoma due to motivation but if LSU prepares and comes to play it could be like Oregon in 2011. I had so much confidence in that game but due to uncertainty in our offense I’m not there yet for 2019 to say we can win by more than 7.

LSU fans are positive as hell in August every year. That Wisconsin game should have fixed that but it didn’t.

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Vegas doesn't know and doesn't care about who wins.

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Not necessarily true. If they don't get the money close (i.e. 50/50) they absolutely care; and there are many games where they don't get the money 50/50, regardless of how much they move the spread.

Additionally, if the spread moved too much (as in this game) they stand to lose both sides on bets made within the move (this is called middling a game). An example would be if someone bet on Texas at +7 when the line opened and then bet on LSU -3 today. If LSU wins by 4, 5 or 6 the better would win both bets. If LSU wins by exactly 3 or 7 the better would win one and push one. When a line moves dramatically Vegas does not like it. It opens up all sorts of bad possibilities.

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If you read this board, you’d see that the average LSU fan expects at least a 10 point win

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The “average” LSU fan also thinks that “22” personnel means that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is getting the ball on that play.

Not the sharpest knives in the kitchen.

I'll tell you right now that a lot of people don't understand what happens when a team loses a shite ton of defense on a team that was only decent at defense the year prior. Texas will have a very hard time stopping LSU from hitting 40 points (I have it at 34), and they don't face a secondary close to what they will in LSU's. Mark my words, they are going to come after Ehlinger, and he is going to look really bad in that game.

The reality is that LSU probably has around a 50% chance to win the game but some people want to win so badly that it becomes the only reasonable outcome in their minds. When breaking down the game they will only remember LSU's strengths and UT's weaknesses.

If you try to bring up the 50 times they've been sure their team was going to win and they didn't, they will try to convince you that "this time it's different" because of "this reason" that you can't disprove until the game is played.

If you try to remind them that last time they said it was different for "this other reason" and it turned out that it actually wasn't, they'll probably just downvote you and close the window.

And yes, I'll be doing the exact same thing when it's Bama Clemson Round V in January.

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Experts are giving way to much credit to Texas for beating a deflated UGA team.

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I don’t think real experts are. I think talking heads and numb nuts are. Anyone with a brain knows you don’t give credit for a victory last year when 9 of 11 starters on D are gone for this year. Now Vegas line setters are just shrugging their shoulders and setting the line to wash out the betting to 50/50 and collect the vig.

All Texas can hope is LSU has trouble implementing newish scheme or maybe pull their two returning players on D - the safeties - up close to almost in the box and hope they can disrupt LSU enough to keep it close but you all know there are ways to counter that. And as I’ve said there are two returning TX starters on the O Line going against a super stacked LSU D that has too many legit stars and super stars w tons of experience to put on the field at the same time.

Don’t forget it’s in the interest of media sports guys to say”it’s gonna be a close one” “TX is a top ranked team they could get an early season victory to launch them to CFP” “Tom Herman brilliant young coach blah blah blah”. What else are they gonna say? Cake walk for LSU? Of course not. Real experts are watching the line drop and close to game they’ll come in big for Los Tigres.