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re: What bothers me about the Bama game is the following scenarios

Posted on 10/22/18 at 9:57 pm to
Posted by Chadwick
Member since Aug 2011
5304 posts
Posted on 10/22/18 at 9:57 pm to
quote:

Not if LSU wins out.



So who would get in? There are only 3 undefeated teams left in the top five. If LSU beats bama there will only be two, Clemson and Notre Dame. So the final four (if they would win out) would be Clemson, ND, LSU and Bama.
This post was edited on 10/22/18 at 9:58 pm
Posted by Datbayoubengal
Port City
Member since Sep 2009
28069 posts
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:02 pm to
Bama wins out
Clemson wins out
Notre Dame wins out
Bama wins conference championship with one loss
LSU/UGA/UF wins out
Michigan/Ohio St wins out
Oklahoma/Texas wins out


These are the teams that still have a playoff shot. This is the order in which I think teams would get in the playoffs if the committee picks. It's based on good wins, good losses, schedules, prestige, and size of fanbase viewership.


If Bama loses against LSU and LSU wins out, I think Bama stays home. If Bama doesn't win the conference championship, I think they stay home. There are way too many prestige blue bloods with huge fanbases that can win a conference championship with only one loss. It isn't clear-cut like it has been in recent years up to this point.

For the most part, Clemson and Notre Dame's schedule is a cake walk the rest of the way.

All we really need is one more team to win out and it doesn't matter which one of em in the other conferences.


But......upsets happen and I could easily see Clemson losing to FSU/BC/USCe. I can definitely see ND losing to FSU/USC/Syracuse. We do our part, and 3 other teams outside of the SEC do their parts, and Bama doesn't make the playoffs.
Posted by iamandykeim
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2015
3020 posts
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:02 pm to
quote:

B12 champ is a lock (Texas vs Oklahoma 2)

certainly not. very possible that the big 12 champ has 2 losses
Posted by PurpleTiger07
Member since Sep 2018
28 posts
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:06 pm to
quote:

If Bama loses against LSU and LSU wins out, I think Bama stays home. If Bama doesn't win the conference championship, I think they stay home


You mean like in 2011? Bama is getting in with only one loss. I can assure you.
Posted by Datbayoubengal
Port City
Member since Sep 2009
28069 posts
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:09 pm to
quote:

Bama is 100% getting in if their only loss of the year is LSU.



bullshite. They need several teams to lose in order to make it. Jumping 1 loss conference champs in blue bloods programs like Texas, Michigan, and Oklahoma, wouldn't be tolerated by anybody not affiliated with Bama. Jumping an undefeated Notre Dame or Clemson would not be tolerated. There'd be nationwide outrage and boycotting of the playoffs and the NCAA.
Posted by Chadwick
Member since Aug 2011
5304 posts
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:12 pm to
quote:

bullshite. They need several teams to lose in order to make it. Jumping 1 loss conference champs in blue bloods programs like Texas, Michigan, and Oklahoma, wouldn't be tolerated by anybody not affiliated with Bama. Jumping an undefeated Notre Dame or Clemson would not be tolerated. There'd be nationwide outrage and boycotting of the playoffs and the NCAA.


Wtf? Where the hell you've been the last decade? If Bama's only loss is to LSU they will be the highest ranked one loss team, which is what LSU is now.
Posted by PurpleTiger07
Member since Sep 2018
28 posts
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:13 pm to
quote:

bullshite. They need several teams to lose in order to make it. Jumping 1 loss conference champs in blue bloods programs like Texas, Michigan, and Oklahoma, wouldn't be tolerated by anybody not affiliated with Bama. Jumping an undefeated Notre Dame or Clemson would not be tolerated. There'd be nationwide outrage and boycotting of the playoffs and the NCAA.


Posted by dillydilly1845
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2018
42 posts
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:14 pm to
Not sure bama gets in this year assuming LSU win. Unless the CFP sinks to a new low and totally disregards schedule, a defeated bama makes room for for the big 12 if OU, WVU, or Tx win out
This post was edited on 10/22/18 at 10:16 pm
Posted by Chadwick
Member since Aug 2011
5304 posts
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:17 pm to
quote:

Not sure bama gets in this year assuming LSU win. Unless the CFP sinks to a new low and totally disregards schedule, a defeated bama makes room for for the big 12 if OU, WVU, or Tx win out


I actually hope you're right. But judging on past experience I don't think you are.
Posted by Che Boludo
Member since May 2009
20297 posts
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:23 pm to
quote:

Even if LSU wins out..... all Bama will need is one of the other top 3 teams to lose, and they’re IN!
this is true. I was a minority among Bama fans that felt fortunate last year to be in over tOSU, which proved to be the right call in the current system.

But, I think most know ND is a paper tiger with close wins over Vandy, Ball State and Pitt. But, they are ND. That is where a true half century's old real bias/collusion have resided.

Another LSU loss is simple elimination, though I think they are every bit the replica of a 2009-2013 Bama team. Deserving a shot at the final 4.

Michigan and any big 10 champ is just another obligatory sacrificial lamb.

It's an SEC vs Sec or SEC vs Clemson end to the CFP this year... or it should be

I personally feel a 1 loss non-SEC champ has a great shot from Eye test alone, but another top 5 loss locks them in with 1 loss.
Posted by mtntiger
Asheville, NC
Member since Oct 2003
28471 posts
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:23 pm to
Still plenty of football left. To me, the wild card is Notre Dame.

There have already been upsets this season (Purdue anyone?). If the Irish stumble, then that definitely opens the door for Bama.

What would settle this crap once and for all is a simple rule that you have to at least win your conference or even your division to get in. This "eye test" crap is total BS. Prove it on the field or shut the hell up.
Posted by Datbayoubengal
Port City
Member since Sep 2009
28069 posts
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:24 pm to
quote:

You mean like in 2011? Bama is getting in with only one loss. I can assure you.



What are you idiots not getting? In 2011 there was no big time undefeated/1 loss program in the mix at the end and the BCS used computer ratings with multiple polls.

Bama can't pull that type of shite with teams like Texas ND, and Michigan in the mix. If Bama lost to LSU and we won out, their best win would be to a 5 loss Miss St or TAMU while everybody else would have a win vs at least a 10 win team.
Posted by Morty
Member since Feb 2018
2252 posts
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:25 pm to
What bothers me is that they are a lot better than us and have bested us six years in a row.
Posted by mojoey
Covington
Member since Sep 2013
1185 posts
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:32 pm to
Just win. No matter what Bama makes it in the top 4 and makes the playoffs. Run any scenario and they are in with their weak arse schedule.
Posted by dillydilly1845
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2018
42 posts
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:37 pm to
quote:

simple rule that you have to at least win your conference or even your division to get in.


^this. There needs to be a clearly defined path for playoff bids. They got it right in hindsight last year for bama, but they won’t always get it right if they keep pulling that shite
Posted by GreyBear
Member since Nov 2017
664 posts
Posted on 10/23/18 at 12:35 am to
ArmyTide73,
You have to admit, the LSU win would be the ONLY real quality win....until the SECCG...and even then, if they face FLA or UK and not UGA, it’s not like facing another LSU.
Bama’s SOS is not as strong as in past years —- and the true test that Saban knows is coming, is Aranda’s D....
Posted by Hmerly
Member since May 2008
1431 posts
Posted on 10/23/18 at 1:19 am to
Truly, the only thing LSU can do is beat Bama. Everything else does not matter. Whatever happens the rest of the year happens and its out of the team's control. LSU needs this win, and to win the rest of their games and things will set up fine for the Playoffs. Bama, if they lose to LSU, will have to hope one of the other undefeated teams loses and then they will most likely be in. Even with their shitty schedule and not having a single good win on their resume, the committee and the media will bring up the "eye test" once again and put them in. Its ridiculous, but its the way things are right now.
Posted by self_service
Member since Oct 2016
680 posts
Posted on 10/23/18 at 3:32 am to
Put UCF in the playoffs. They'll have won almost 30 in a row at that point.
Posted by Che Boludo
Member since May 2009
20297 posts
Posted on 10/23/18 at 3:59 am to
quote:

GreyBear
I agree 100%; schedule turned to schit. And, next year will be worse in terms of strength.

But, I also agree that Bama absolutely passes the eye test and CNS is a proven commodity. They could trade schedules with any team in the country and I think they are still undefeated to a 1-loss team. UA would be fourth team in over any 2+ loss conf champ or 1 loss non-conf champ. Wrong or right, they built up that credit in the committee's eyes and continued to live up to it when provided the opportunity.

LSU has always been a test, especially in BR. This year could be the toughest of those tests if for no other reason than Bama hasn't been tested yet. They will have to play 4 qtrs on 3 Nov.

I really love this LSU team. They are built like/play like a pre-kiffin era Bama team in all phases. Quality, hard nosed team that finds a way to win. And, if you can't root for oeaux, you probably suck.

Posted by Spotswoode
Mount Rushmore
Member since Aug 2018
1594 posts
Posted on 10/23/18 at 6:57 am to
quote:

When LSU beat them in BDS in 2011, they fell a grand total of one spot. It was a joke.

That’s EXACTLY the number of spots they should have dropped. At that point, they were clearly the second best team in the nation. You are under a misconception on how the polls are supposed to work. They are not formulas guaranteeing a certain drop or rise. They are an aggregation of opinions. And only a complete fool would opine, in November of 2011, that any team in America was better than Bama other than LSU. In fact, Bama would have beaten the third best team by 20 points.
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