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re: We are atleast 21 point favourites against Hogs

Posted on 11/10/22 at 11:45 am to
Posted by Geauxtigersgeaux12
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2019
2421 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 11:45 am to
quote:

Josh Pate said LSU would get run by the Gumps


I'm not saying Arky is going to win, and he also picked LSU to win. I'm just saying nobody has the spread more than 3.5. LSU isn't winning by 21.
Posted by Jugular Joe
Member since Jan 2020
5162 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 11:46 am to
quote:


Peolpe have been screaming "TRAP GAME" far and wide as soon as Mason Taylor caught the 2PC Saturday night. With someone as detail oreinted as CBK running the show we will NOT come out flat.
Additionally KJ Jefferson is banged up and IMO either wont play or if he does will be a detriment. IDK things dont sound great ab his shoulder js


You are setting yourself up for utter disappointment my friend. Sounds like you're expecting a 2-3 score victory. Just doesn't work that way. This will take everything we have just to come out victorious. It's going to be a major grind.
Posted by sunnydaze
Member since Jan 2010
32433 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 12:10 pm to
Glad our coaches aren’t thinking like this
Posted by junkfunky
Member since Jan 2011
35699 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 12:16 pm to
FanDuel has an alt spread of -13.5 for +265. Doesn't go any higher than that.

Don't forget to post your bet slip.
Posted by misey94
Member since Jan 2007
32641 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 12:21 pm to
quote:

Josh Pates model has Arkansas -1. LSU isn’t anywhere close to a 21 point favorite. You’re going to be highly disappointed if you really think that.


He was also clear that the model isn’t accounting for Jefferson being injured. Based on everything we’ve seen and heard, he isn’t anywhere close to 100%. That’s why Pate overrode the model and took us to cover and win outright.
Posted by atltiger6487
Member since May 2011
19707 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 12:22 pm to
trap game for us, coming off the biggest spend of emotional energy all year. And we have to go on the road. And we play at noon. And we'll get Arkansas' best shot.

It's human nature to be emotionally flat the week after the biggest game in a long time, and it's compounded when you have to go on the road.

This game will be close.
Posted by misey94
Member since Jan 2007
32641 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 12:23 pm to
quote:

LSU isn't winning by 21.


I believe we will. I think this will go very much like the OM game. They will come out playing even with us to just ahead and we will wear them down and pull away in the 4th.

Arkansas is beat to shite and you guys have seen our conditioning take over late in several games. It will again here.
Posted by mrcoon
Louisiana
Member since Jul 2019
668 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 12:24 pm to
You are completely wrong and your friend is bad at his job:

Point Spreads Explained

Posted by The Real Drooby
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2015
1576 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 12:31 pm to
If we get it that far ahead it needs to be Howard
Nuss will transfer after this year with all the QB talent coming in
Nuss showed his colors last year by sitting out bowl game
Posted by Tigaux6661
Member since Aug 2022
388 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 12:31 pm to
quote:

trap game


This and comparing to situations from different years is...

Cliche! Also paraphrasing CBK.

Coaching team wont even let them think it. The team is focused on one thing just like 2019...gotta take it from em...
Posted by mdomingue
Lafayette, LA
Member since Nov 2010
42080 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 12:43 pm to
quote:

We are atleast 21 point favourites against Hogs


Are you saying the point spread is or will be 21 or more or are you simply giving us your prediction that LSU will win by 21 or more points?

Because if you are predicting what the point spread will be by game time, I'll take a ban bet that the spread will not be 21 or more at any point prior to the game on any reputable site.
Posted by Homer Pelican
Homer la
Member since Dec 2021
1937 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 12:47 pm to
What do you so called bookies see in arkie. Lsu gonna blow them at the water
Posted by ChEgrad
Member since Nov 2012
3755 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 12:51 pm to
Have you looked at the history of this series? Very few blowouts by the “better” team. Always a tough matchup.
Posted by Tigaux6661
Member since Aug 2022
388 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 12:59 pm to
History last ten years.

Nov. 13 2021 L13-16 Baton Rouge
Nov. 21 2020 W27-24 Fayetteville
Nov. 23 2019 W56-20 Baton Rouge
Nov. 10 2018 W24-17 Fayetteville
Nov. 11 2017 W33-10 Baton Rouge
Nov. 12 2016 W38-10 Fayetteville
Nov. 14 2015 L14-31 Baton Rouge
Nov. 15 2014 L0-17 Fayetteville
Nov. 29 2013 W31-27 Baton Rouge
Nov. 23 2012 W20-13 Fayetteville
Nov. 25 2011 W41-17 Baton Rouge

From our Wins, half were blowouts
This post was edited on 11/10/22 at 1:23 pm
Posted by goatmilker
Castle Anthrax
Member since Feb 2009
73791 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 1:01 pm to
Are you a pig plant?
Posted by Undertow
Member since Sep 2016
8807 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 1:27 pm to
It said -3.0 on ESPN.com’s scoreboard yesterday.

Says -3.5 today. That seems awfully low. What am I missing?
This post was edited on 11/10/22 at 1:29 pm
Posted by Tiger Phil
I see burnt orange everywhere
Member since Nov 2007
1660 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 1:43 pm to
quote:

Josh Pates model has Arkansas -1. LSU isn’t anywhere close to a 21 point favorite. You’re going to be highly disappointed if you really think that.


Same one whose model had us losing to Ole Miss and to Alabama?
Posted by Htownbayubengal
Houston
Member since Oct 2022
1406 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 2:03 pm to
Lmao. A weak article vs an actual handicapper. Ok coon.
Posted by studentsect
Member since Jan 2004
2295 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 2:07 pm to
quote:

Says -3.5 today. That seems awfully low. What am I missing?



The Vegas line has been absolutely useless as a tool for projecting outcome of LSU's SEC games this season.

Miss State line was 17.5 points too favorable towards State.
Auburn line was 4 points too favorable towards LSU.
Tennessee line was 25.5 points too favorable towards LSU.
Florida line was 12.5 points too favorable towards UF.
Ole Miss line was 25 points too favorable towards Ole Miss.
Alabama line was 14 points too favorable towards Alabama.


Zero times this season has the line been within a FG of the final score, only once has it been within one possession, and twice it's been off by four scores.


The spread has been off by 3 or more scores half the time this season, so LSU winning by 21 would be basically par for the course.
Posted by LSUStar
Medellin
Member since Sep 2009
11405 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 2:12 pm to
Of course no one knows, but I would not be surprised if LSU rolled them.

Geaux Tigers!
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