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Message
re: Way too early 2027 home run projections
Posted on 6/8/26 at 8:49 am to pgaddxn
Posted on 6/8/26 at 8:49 am to pgaddxn
Foley
LF: 350 ft (106.7 m)
LC: 370 ft (112.8 m)
CF: 404 ft (123.1 m)
RC: 365 ft (111.3 m)
RF: 314 ft (95.7 m)
Skip Bertman Field
Foul lines: 330 ft
Power alleys: 365 ft
Center: 405 ft
LF: 350 ft (106.7 m)
LC: 370 ft (112.8 m)
CF: 404 ft (123.1 m)
RC: 365 ft (111.3 m)
RF: 314 ft (95.7 m)
Skip Bertman Field
Foul lines: 330 ft
Power alleys: 365 ft
Center: 405 ft
Posted on 6/8/26 at 11:19 am to pgaddxn
I just want to piggy back on what a few other people have mentioned. 50 homers out of Arambide and Serna is…ambitious. Not saying it’s impossible, but predicting it is kind of silly.
Also, I don’t know that Braun is a 12-15 homer guy. He’s pretty filled out already, not a lot of room to add weight to his stature. And his approach, the way he hits the ball to all fields, hits a ton of line drives, I don’t think is conducive to hitting a ton of home runs. What did he hit this year? 3? 4? To get to 12-15 is a huge jump that I don’t think he can make without talking away a lot of what makes him special. He’d have to get a lot more pull happy.
And I don’t think we want that. He reminds me Tre Morgan a bit in that way. Spraying the ball to all fields. Tre was definitely big and strong enough his Jr. year to hit 15, but he would have had to change his entire swing and approach and that’s not what we needed out of him. I don’t think we need it out of Braun. I think 7-10 is more reasonable.
Also, I don’t know that Braun is a 12-15 homer guy. He’s pretty filled out already, not a lot of room to add weight to his stature. And his approach, the way he hits the ball to all fields, hits a ton of line drives, I don’t think is conducive to hitting a ton of home runs. What did he hit this year? 3? 4? To get to 12-15 is a huge jump that I don’t think he can make without talking away a lot of what makes him special. He’d have to get a lot more pull happy.
And I don’t think we want that. He reminds me Tre Morgan a bit in that way. Spraying the ball to all fields. Tre was definitely big and strong enough his Jr. year to hit 15, but he would have had to change his entire swing and approach and that’s not what we needed out of him. I don’t think we need it out of Braun. I think 7-10 is more reasonable.
This post was edited on 6/8/26 at 11:55 am
Posted on 6/8/26 at 11:23 am to pgaddxn
Lol what? So you think distance to the fence is the only thing that contributes to # of HRs? I gave you 3 other reasons and there's plenty of data to back it up but you're just gonna ignore all those things. Also it's a really short corner and you can't just ignore that either
Posted on 6/8/26 at 11:29 am to pgaddxn
quote:
They actually have more playing field area than The Box.
Prove it. And if you think you have enough information with just the dimensions you posted, then you’ve never seen different baseball fields. Or you don’t know how to math.
quote:
This is exactly what I was looking for you to say so you couldn’t twist your way back out of it.
Fair enough. But you made the claim that Foley has more playing area than the Box. The onus is on you to prove that.
quote:
You don’t know shite about baseball.
He may not. But I’m your huckleberry. Ask me your question. But not in the passive aggressive bitch way you’ve been asking it.
Because you’re not really asking a question. You’re trying to make a statement, but are too scared to fricking straight up say it. Ask it. Say it. I’ll respond.
Posted on 6/8/26 at 11:34 am to pgaddxn
quote:
Foley LF: 350 ft (106.7 m)
LC: 370 ft (112.8 m)
CF: 404 ft (123.1 m)
RC: 365 ft (111.3 m)
RF: 314 ft (95.7 m)
Skip Bertman Field
Foul lines: 330 ft
Power alleys: 365 ft
Center: 405 ft
But please, I can’t wait for you to prove that the Foley has more surface area than the Box using only these numbers. And then case you cheat using A.I., I’m gonna have to ask you to show your work.
I have no idea what field has more surface area. It may be Foley. But I know that the numbers you posted aren’t enough to solve for it. But by all means, prove me wrong.
Posted on 6/8/26 at 11:46 am to pgaddxn
quote:
I genuinely think Lil big Pearson takes a leap next year. I think he’s the dude that goes next level.
I think he will definitely take a leap next year after seeing SEC pitching for a full year. And he better. If he’s not giving us 15(ish) home runs, then he doesn’t need to be playing. His only tool is power. If we don’t get that out of him more consistently, then what does he really provide?
And I went to West Monroe and played with the Pearson’s dad for a year. So I’m pulling for him. The only thing that gives me pause is that he’ll be an older 3rd year guy. Is there anything left to get out of him? I’m hoping it was just needing to see good pitching consistently after basically being forced into a RH PH role his freshman season.
Also, Jay is going to continue adding talent to the roster. And there’s the—slim—potential Milam falls in the draft and comes back. There may be some musical chairs played in the IF, and Big John might left without a position when the music stops.
Anybody know what he’s doing this summer. He needs to keep seeing good pitching. But he’s also got to slim down some and become a much better 3B. Work a ton on his lateral movement. Ability to come up and make plays on slow rollers, etc…
Posted on 6/8/26 at 11:54 am to Hot Carl
Hold your breath, I’ll be back in a little bit. No cheating.
Posted on 6/8/26 at 11:57 am to pgaddxn
quote:
Hold your breath, I’ll be back in a little bit. No cheating.
I think I’ll go ahead and continue to breathe, but I do look forward to your results. Genuinely.
Posted on 6/8/26 at 12:16 pm to Hot Carl
You son of a bitch, you are right. I was wrong. I thought the much longer left field and longer alleys would have made up the difference. Alas I should have actually calculated it instead of estimating and planting my foot in my mouth.
It still isn’t easy to hit out of unless you are an incredible left handed pull hitter or right handed oppo hammer.
It still isn’t easy to hit out of unless you are an incredible left handed pull hitter or right handed oppo hammer.
Posted on 6/8/26 at 12:25 pm to Hot Carl
I think he’s probably got a lot left to give and learn. He’s only got I think 160 plate appearances at LSU. In the scheme of things that’s really not a lot. In my opinion he’s got the juice, he really only needs to improve approach and discipline.
Posted on 6/8/26 at 12:32 pm to Yeti_Chaser
frick the tree batter eye bullshite, I’ll give you the wind can help when it’s windy just like anywhere else, but the only short part of the fence is is a very small corner that you’d have to be really fricking elite to consitently hit it to that spot. It’s a false narrative that it’s easy to hit homers there.
Posted on 6/8/26 at 1:26 pm to pgaddxn
Okay so we're not allowed to use the short RF fence argument and we're gonna ignore the wind too? (Which BTW it's not "windy just like anywhere else." thats actually the point).
Your handicap is making it tough on me. So just look at the HR numbers then. There's been a shite load of HRs hit out of that park. I'm not gonna do the research for you but you can if you want. I also find it interesting that UGAs offensive coaches came from Mingione's Kentucky teams, not exactly known for HRs yet they're cranking them out in Athens every year they've been there
Your handicap is making it tough on me. So just look at the HR numbers then. There's been a shite load of HRs hit out of that park. I'm not gonna do the research for you but you can if you want. I also find it interesting that UGAs offensive coaches came from Mingione's Kentucky teams, not exactly known for HRs yet they're cranking them out in Athens every year they've been there
This post was edited on 6/8/26 at 1:39 pm
Posted on 6/8/26 at 1:46 pm to Yeti_Chaser
They have over 50 how runs away from Foley field. They hit really well.
Posted on 6/8/26 at 1:52 pm to pgaddxn
Never said they don't. In fact I said their hitting coaches are probably part of the benefit. Remember my OP said Bide would be more likely to hit 30 HRs if he transferred to UGA. They've got some guys on that team that are built like absolute tanks. You're moving the goalposts
Posted on 6/8/26 at 2:12 pm to pgaddxn
quote:
You son of a bitch, you are right. I was wrong. I thought the much longer left field and longer alleys would have made up the difference. Alas I should have actually calculated it instead of estimating and planting my foot in my mouth.
Yeah, you left out the angles and length from dimension to dimension. Which I didn’t know, that’s why I was genuinely curious to see. But the Box is more like old school MLB parks in the way it’s symmetrically shaped. Not any hard angles.
quote:
It still isn’t easy to hit out of unless you are an incredible left handed pull hitter or right handed oppo hammer.
It’s not easy to consistently hit it out for sure. Those Georgia dudes can rake, no doubt. But I don’t think they’d be chasing down 188 if they played at the Box. Of course, there would be no 188 without the drop 5s and a little juice. So whatever. I’m not gonna whine about the record going down if it does. Not gonna blame it on Foley.
This post was edited on 6/8/26 at 2:19 pm
Posted on 6/8/26 at 2:14 pm to Yeti_Chaser
quote:
I also find it interesting that UGAs offensive coaches came from Mingione's Kentucky teams, not exactly known for HRs yet they're cranking them out in Athens every year they've been there
Is it Foley field, uga’s staff making monster players or the wind? I haven’t moved any goal posts. You said the field is easy to hit out of. That why they hit so many. I said they have over 50 outside of foley. You say it’s because of the staff. 2 posts ago you said their staff isn’t known for hitting homers with Kentucky. Now all of a sudden the staff is making monster players?
Who’s moving what where?
Posted on 6/8/26 at 2:17 pm to Yeti_Chaser
quote:
You're moving the goalposts
I jumped in late. What exactly are we even arguing? Not what we’re pretending to argue, but what we’re really arguing. If we even are really arguing.
Posted on 6/8/26 at 2:22 pm to Hot Carl
So I broke foley down into 1/5ths and calculated it like this.
.05xPix(fence line distance 2)
They are between 15k to 25k. Add all 5 up and get the total for total area.
So Foley
.05x3.14x(404x404)=25,624.912
.05x3.14x(365x365)=20,916.325
.05x3.14x(315x315)=15,578.325
.05x3.14x(370x370)=21,493.3
.05x3.14x(350x350)=19,232.5
Total 103,430.187
Box
.25x3.14(405x405)=128,759.625
.05xPix(fence line distance 2)
They are between 15k to 25k. Add all 5 up and get the total for total area.
So Foley
.05x3.14x(404x404)=25,624.912
.05x3.14x(365x365)=20,916.325
.05x3.14x(315x315)=15,578.325
.05x3.14x(370x370)=21,493.3
.05x3.14x(350x350)=19,232.5
Total 103,430.187
Box
.25x3.14(405x405)=128,759.625
This post was edited on 6/8/26 at 2:24 pm
Posted on 6/8/26 at 2:23 pm to pgaddxn
quote:
I think he’s probably got a lot left to give and learn. He’s only got I think 160 plate appearances at LSU. In the scheme of things that’s really not a lot. In my opinion he’s got the juice, he really only needs to improve approach and discipline.
I hope you’re right. He’s gonna improve almost guaranteed. Will it be enough, though? Because we NEED him to make a big jump. It will lengthen the lineup. (Something I’m pretty obsessed with.)
Posted on 6/8/26 at 2:27 pm to pgaddxn
quote:
Total 103,430.187
Box .25x3.14(405x405)=128,759.625
Impressive work. And you called my bluff/challenge, realized you were wrong and came back and not only admitted it, but showed your work. Genuinely impressed. Not a lot of posters would do that. We need more like you.
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