Updated 4-year recruiting rankings for all 130 teams, where the SEC completely dominates

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Here’s the new approach, based on what appears to be the most statistically predictive:

Whereas I previously used a blend of both 247Sports Composite and Rivals ratings for each year, I am now using only the Composite.

I use a blend of point totals (how the recruiting services determine their class rankings) and per-recruit averages, since teams signing 32 guys in one year don’t automatically end up getting a long-term advantage over teams signing 23. Point totals make up about 78 percent of the formula, and per-recruit averages made up about 22 percent.

Using previous years of data as the testing ground, I found the projections work best when they are weighted as follows: this year’s recruiting class accounts for about 67 percent of the projection, last year’s accounts for 15 percent, the class from two years ago accounts for 15 percent, and the class from three years out accounts for about 3 percent. So I guess we call it a weighted four-year average now.

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