To defer or not to defer? LSU Coin Toss Results (Kelly Era)

Ok, so the whole point of this post is to present data and start a discussion (calm and rational, I'm sure) about this. My personal stance is that you should defer if you win the toss, but it's not really a big deal either way. With that out of the way... the data!

Thus far LSU is 25-8 (.758) in the Brian Kelly era.

In the Kelly era, LSU has won the toss 16 times and lost the toss 17 times. (48.5 toss win %) - essentially the toss is 50/50 (surprise!)

Of the 16 times LSU has won the toss Kelly has elected to receive 10 times (62.5%). LSU is 6-4 (.600) in those games. Of the 6 times LSU has won the toss and deferred we are 4-2 (.667). Overall, LSU is 10-6 when we win the toss.

Conversely, LSU is 15-2 (.882) when we lose the toss. LSU is 10-2 (.833) when the opposing team wins the toss and elects to defer and LSU is 5-0 (1.000) when the opposing team wins the toss and elects to receive.

Irrespective of coin toss result, when LSU starts on offense we are 16-6 (.727) and when LSU starts on defense we are 9-2 (.818).

Now for some more zoomed in results.

LSU scores on 30% (3 of 10; 2 TD and 1 FG) of their possessions when we win the toss and choose to receive. LSU scores on 41.67% (5 of 12; 5 TD) of their possessions when the opponent wins the toss and chooses to defer. Overall, LSU scored 8 of 22 (36.36%) times we received the opening kickoff.

Opponents score on 66.67% (4 of 6; 4 TD) of their possessions when we win the toss and choose to defer. Opponents score on 40% (2 of 5; 2 TD) of their possessions when they win the toss and choose to receive. Overall, opponents scored 6 of 11 (54.54%) times they received the opening kickoff.

When LSU wins the toss and chooses to defer (6 games), we have the ball in the last possession of 1st half 50% of the time (3 of 6) but have only scored 1 time (16.67%). When the opponent wins the toss and chooses to receive (5 games), LSU has the last possession 60% (3 of 5) of the time and scores 40% (2 of 5).

When LSU wins the toss and chooses to receive (10 games), we have the last possession of the 1st half 30% (3 of 10) of the time and score 20% (2 of 10) of the time. When the opponent wins the toss and chooses to defer (12 games), LSU has the last possession of the 1st half 33.33% (4 of 12) of the time and scored 16.67% (2 of 12) of the time.

Of the 6 times LSU has won the toss and deferred, we have scored on our opening drive of the 2nd half 66.67% (4 of 6; all TDs) of the time. Of the 5 times an opponent won the toss and elected to receive, LSU scored on our opening drive of the 2nd half 40% (2 of 5) of the time. Coincidentally, LSU was unable to "double up" in any of the instances where we kickoff to start the game. The only instance was against Georgia St. where they chose to receive after winning the toss.

Lastly, only Tennessee (2022) was able to "double up" LSU after we won the toss and chose to receive - LSU lost. Bama (2022; 2 FGs) and A&M (2023; 2 TDs) were the only team to "double up" LSU when they won the toss and chose to defer - LSU won both games.

I know this image is a little hard to see, but here's the data table I pulled together based on the game notes from LSUSports.net. I left some notes to give an idea of what happened towards the end of the 1st half (e.g., Purdue punts with 20 sec left and LSU kneels, I considered the last possession to be Purdue punting). I also highlighted the 5 instances where an opposing coach won the toss and chose to receive.



TL;DR: LSU should just hope to lose the toss because we win 88.2% of our games when we do.