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So Vegas has it LSU -13
Posted on 10/9/19 at 7:49 am
Posted on 10/9/19 at 7:49 am
While I certainly hope they are right, that’s a big spread with these two teams.
This post was edited on 10/9/19 at 7:50 am
11
Posted on 10/9/19 at 7:54 am to tigernnola
Joe will be picking these frickers bones by the 3rd quarter. 
Posted on 10/9/19 at 7:55 am to tigernnola
The good news is that Vegas gets it right over 90% of the time.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 7:59 am to tigernnola
Everyone keeps talking about Florida's defense. LSU's defense has quietly figured a few things out and they are flying under the radar. This could easily be a rout by LSU.
This post was edited on 10/9/19 at 9:09 am
Posted on 10/9/19 at 8:02 am to tigernnola
Lsu is 4-0-1 vs spread this year
Most haven't even been close
Lsu and Florida defense are pretty close statistically and Lsu is at home w the explosive offense. Sounds about right to me
Most haven't even been close
Lsu and Florida defense are pretty close statistically and Lsu is at home w the explosive offense. Sounds about right to me
Posted on 10/9/19 at 8:15 am to Chadwick
quote:
This could easily be a route by LSU.
I definitely see a path to victory.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 8:20 am to tigernnola
The betting was something like 52% UF/ 48% LSU the last time I checked Covers. Vegas is trying to spread out the bets on this game. They aren’t basically gambling that LSU will cover the spread, as some LSU fans on the SECRant are trying to claim.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 8:42 am to wilceaux
quote:You sir are the nicest grammar cop around!
I definitely see a path to victory.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 8:48 am to cade73
quote:
The good news is that Vegas gets it right over 90% of the time.
1. No they don't
2. Vegas doesn't get anything right or wrong. It's the collective wisdom of bettors that sets the lines.
3. What would it mean to "get it right" anyway?
Posted on 10/9/19 at 9:05 am to tigernnola
Personally I think you'd have to be a little crazy to take LSU -13 but you'd have to be absolutely insane to take Florida money line as I don't see how they're possibly winning this game.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 9:08 am to tmjones2
I think their offense is in big trouble this weekend which is the reason for the spread. Their defense is very good and will give LSU problems, but LSU D vs Florida O is a huge mismatch imo
Posted on 10/9/19 at 9:16 am to wilceaux
quote:
This could easily be a route by LSU. I definitely see a path to victory.
No slack here. I love it.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 9:16 am to Penrod
quote:
1. No they don't 2. Vegas doesn't get anything right or wrong. It's the collective wisdom of bettors that sets the lines. 3. What would it mean to "get it right" anyway?
Good lord, you don't have to be a detective to figure out the point. Let me put it in a way your little penrod mind can understand: If vegas sets a spread at a certain number, the outcome of that game is usually close to that number. If there's anything else you need explained just ask.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 9:22 am to cade73
This looks like one of those vegas trap games where Vegas is counting on people to load up on +13 florida being such a big number between the two.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 9:31 am to cade73
quote:
Good lord, you don't have to be a detective to figure out the point. Let me put it in a way your little penrod mind can understand: If vegas sets a spread at a certain number, the outcome of that game is usually close to that number. If there's anything else you need explained just ask.
Sorry pal, I have to disagree. I don't think "your little penrod mind" has any clue how this works. Re-read the guy's comment: it's the bettors that set the spreads. Vegas just uses the figures that get equal money on each side.
And there's a helluva lot of difference between "gets it right more than 90% of the time" and "usually close." Getting it right 90% of the time would mean that the final score hit exactly on the spread 90% of the time.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 9:34 am to Danielsu21
quote:
This looks like one of those vegas trap games where Vegas is counting on people to load up on +13 florida being such a big number between the two.
Bingo.
Most bettors aren't digging deep, they're looking at a few basic factors: (1.) Ranks of teams (2.) Records of teams (3.) Streaks
When a line seems too good to be true (getting 2 TD's in a #5 vs #7 game) - it's probably bait.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 9:41 am to WilliamTaylor21
quote:So what you are saying is that Vegas likely thinks LSU blows Florida out and needs some high level incentive to get people to bet Florida?
When a line seems too good to be true (getting 2 TD's in a #5 vs #7 game) - it's probably bait.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 9:48 am to BigSlick
quote:
it's the bettors that set the spreads. Vegas just uses the figures that get equal money on each side.
correct. linesmakers want it tough on both sides. sharps will move the lines.
the ML is not bad for this game at all. I would bet that all day over the spread right now.
ML is only -490.
i have been wagering on -700, -2000, -2500 moneylines all year and am perfect on them. just need a big bankroll tho.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 9:57 am to PurpleandGeauld
quote:
So what you are saying is that Vegas likely thinks LSU blows Florida out and needs some high level incentive to get people to bet Florida?
happens alot. I'm willing to bet public money is all over florida +13. I think line is around 9.5-10 but then gotta account for night game at home so theres 3. He's right on the public betting that most them only see rankings, w-l, etc which makes +13 so appealing... in the last 10 years between the two that number has only been covered once in 2011 when we blew them out. Vegas knows better
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