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Started By
Message
re: So Vegas has it LSU -13
Posted on 10/9/19 at 10:46 am to PurpleandGeauld
Posted on 10/9/19 at 10:46 am to PurpleandGeauld
quote:Yeppers.
So what you are saying is that Vegas likely thinks LSU blows Florida out and needs some high level incentive to get people to bet Florida?
That is usually what is happening when you see a line that looks outrageous.
They're daring you to take it.
0
Posted on 10/9/19 at 10:49 am to tigernnola
If you want to rely on any predictions Vegas is the only one you should pay attention to. They talk with their money not just lip service.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 10:50 am to cade73
quote:
The good news is that Vegas gets it right over 90% of the time.
you know how i know you do not wager?
Posted on 10/9/19 at 10:53 am to Penrod
quote:
3. What would it mean to "get it right" anyway?
charge vigorish?
i doubt that guy even knows what that means anyway
Posted on 10/9/19 at 11:14 am to tigernnola
I had a guy try to talk shite on CFB reddit the other day noting that the last time LSU was a two touchdown favorite in TS, UF won. I noted his observation, but then reminded him of the 3 games before that, particularly the 2011 matchup.
We were favored by 2 TDs in 2011 at home and I think we all remember how that went.
My point is that this is a new year, with new players, and relatively new coaches. Anything can happen. Vegas sets these lines, and as much as I hate to say it, if you look at the 10 year history of the lines of this matchup, vegas is usually within a few points.
Here is the historical matchup. If it's within 2 points I will label it as dead on.
2018: UF 27 - LSU 19 SPREAD: UF +1 (Off by 9)
2017: UF 16 - LSU 17 SPREAD: UF +1.5 (Dead On)
2016: UF 16 - LSU 10 SPREAD: LSU -14 (Off by 20)
2015: UF 28 - LSU 35 SPREAD: LSU -6 (Dead On)
2014: UF 27 - LSU 30 SPREAD: UF +2.5 (Dead On)
2013: UF 6 - LSU 17 SPREAD: LSU -9 (Dead On)
2012: UF 14 - LSU 6 SPREAD: UF +1.5 (Off by 9.5)
2011: UF 11 - LSU 41 SPREAD: LSU -14 (Off by 16)
2010: UF 29 - LSU 33 SPREAD: UF -6.5 (Off by 10.5)
2009: UF 13 - LSU 3 SPREAD: LSU +10 (Dead On)
The spread is all over the place with which team I chose because I went with the home team's odds.
That's 5 of the last 10 games they've predicted within 2 points. Now that I've seen that I'm not sure if that's good or bad, but in a game that seems to be so difficult for fans to even predict a winner, I'd say that's pretty impressive. Although when they aren't dead on, it's typically by more than a TD.
We were favored by 2 TDs in 2011 at home and I think we all remember how that went.
My point is that this is a new year, with new players, and relatively new coaches. Anything can happen. Vegas sets these lines, and as much as I hate to say it, if you look at the 10 year history of the lines of this matchup, vegas is usually within a few points.
Here is the historical matchup. If it's within 2 points I will label it as dead on.
2018: UF 27 - LSU 19 SPREAD: UF +1 (Off by 9)
2017: UF 16 - LSU 17 SPREAD: UF +1.5 (Dead On)
2016: UF 16 - LSU 10 SPREAD: LSU -14 (Off by 20)
2015: UF 28 - LSU 35 SPREAD: LSU -6 (Dead On)
2014: UF 27 - LSU 30 SPREAD: UF +2.5 (Dead On)
2013: UF 6 - LSU 17 SPREAD: LSU -9 (Dead On)
2012: UF 14 - LSU 6 SPREAD: UF +1.5 (Off by 9.5)
2011: UF 11 - LSU 41 SPREAD: LSU -14 (Off by 16)
2010: UF 29 - LSU 33 SPREAD: UF -6.5 (Off by 10.5)
2009: UF 13 - LSU 3 SPREAD: LSU +10 (Dead On)
The spread is all over the place with which team I chose because I went with the home team's odds.
That's 5 of the last 10 games they've predicted within 2 points. Now that I've seen that I'm not sure if that's good or bad, but in a game that seems to be so difficult for fans to even predict a winner, I'd say that's pretty impressive. Although when they aren't dead on, it's typically by more than a TD.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 11:17 am to Odysseus32
again
linesmakers want it tough on both sides. sharps will move the lines.
or they will not
up to them.
linesmakers want it tough on both sides. sharps will move the lines.
or they will not
up to them.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 11:37 am to tigernnola
THAT is very impressive indeed.
This post was edited on 10/9/19 at 11:38 am
Posted on 10/9/19 at 11:58 am to tigernnola
LSU wins but Florida covers. 27-17
Posted on 10/9/19 at 12:05 pm to PhillyTiger90
quote:
LSU wins but Florida covers. 27-17
i can easily see a 35-24 game
win by 11 but not cover.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 2:46 pm to tigernnola
It was just 3 years ago when the line was 13.5 and Vegas wasnt right that day.
quote:
LSU is a 13.5-point home favorite in Baton Rouge at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 3:25 pm to cade73
Vegas sets the opening line. Yes then the collective actions of the betters moves the line.
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