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re: SEC Championship scenarios are a mess
Posted on 10/30/24 at 5:46 pm to paulb52
Posted on 10/30/24 at 5:46 pm to paulb52
quote:
To break ties simply take the two best teams. Highest ranked.
This would be a horrible idea for multiple reasons. Starting with the fact that the CFP rankings don’t come out until Tuesday night after rivalry weekend, meaning teams wouldn’t know who was playing in Atlanta until Tuesday night before the SECCG.
But also because rankings are entirely subjective and are impacted by OOC games that have nothing to do with actual SEC performance.
0
Posted on 10/31/24 at 11:31 am to Nutriaitch
quote:
you're wrong. winning % among conference opponents is the tie breaker that would be used. it would take some unlikely upsets, but there are scenarios where 7-1 LSU gets left out.
It’s an extreme stretch for 7-1 LSU not going to ATL.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 11:34 am to 318DeathValleyTiger
Give us back the divisions
Posted on 10/31/24 at 12:14 pm to turnpiketiger
quote:
It’s an extreme stretch for 7-1 LSU not going to ATL.
definitely not extreme by any stretch.
I don't think it will happen, but absolutely nothing crazy has to happen for LSU to be on outside looking in.
if the teams highlighted in purple all win, then it's Texas vs Texas A&M in Atlanta
Tennessee would have to win out (I think UGA beats them, but Tennessee winning at home is a definite possibility)
Texas has to give A&M their only loss (this one is pretty likely to happen)
Vandy has to lose to both Auburn and So. Carolina (I think they take at least one of those, maybe even both).
of course if change any of the "chalk" games the rest of the way it changes the equation.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 2:19 pm to Nutriaitch
quote:
definitely not extreme by any stretch. I don't think it will happen, but absolutely nothing crazy has to happen for LSU to be on outside looking in.
quote:
of course if change any of the "chalk" games the rest of the way it changes the equation.
I think that’s where “extreme” becomes a matter of opinion.
A 4-way tie between LSU, aTm, Texas, and Tennessee leads to LSU playing in Atlanta if:
- Vandy beats Auburn (36.7%)
- Oklahoma beats Missouri (36.7%)
- Ole Miss beats Georgia (53.1%)*
- Vandy beats South Carolina (42.8%)
- Arkansas beats Missouri (43.3%)
(Percentages are from ESPN’s game projections.)
*Interestingly, ESPN Analytics favors Ole Miss against UGA.
Some of those are pretty even matches. If you use the ESPN Analytics win probabilities, the probability for the necessary teams to win all of those games is only 6.1%. Or a 93.9% chance that at least one of those games ends in an outcome that would put LSU in the SECCG.
That’s why when it comes to the A&M vs. LSU opponent win% conversation, I think it’s more about the number of outs than it is about chalk. Unfortunately as I mentioned before there are like 134 million potential combinations of results so.. yeah. Idk.
For what it’s worth the same ESPN Analytics only give us a 10.9% chance to win out. Beat Alabama and it goes up to 34.5% over the last three games (using today’s win probabilities). So take it for what it’s worth. Just using it to make the point.
Out if curiosity I ran the same probabilities for other potential SECCG contenders to finish 7-1 or 8-0:
- Texas A&M win out: 10.3%
- Texas A&M 1 loss: 38.8%
- Texas win out: 48.3%
- Tennessee win out: 28.1%
- Georgia win out: 22.4%
2-way ties for 1st among 7-1 teams (excl LSU):
Texas A&M, Texas: 9.3%
Texas A&M, Tennessee: 8.0%
Texas A&M, Georgia: 6.4%
Texas, Tennessee: 6.5%
Texas, Georgia: 5.2%
3-way ties for 1st among 7-1 teams (excl LSU):
Texas A&M, Texas, Tennessee: 5.3%
Texas A&M, Texas, UGA: 4.2%
Might be some math errors in some of the tie probabilities.. it got kind of hairy there at the end.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 3:00 pm to lostinbr
quote:
I think that’s where “extreme” becomes a matter of opinion.
fair point.
I took "extreme" as meaning more along the lines needing something completely unexpected to happen. like some major upset or something.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 3:11 pm to Nutriaitch
LSU at 10-2 and NOT in SECCG...
1. I seriously doubt we'd get into the CFP, but
2. If we did make the CFP, we would definitely NOT be a host team. Just our luck we'd end up playing at Penn State in 29 degrees and a blizzard on Dec 20.
The round 1 playoffs on campus on Dec 20-21 have the distinct potential of being played outside in horrible weather, in places like Penn State or Indiana or BYU/Iowa State.
1. I seriously doubt we'd get into the CFP, but
2. If we did make the CFP, we would definitely NOT be a host team. Just our luck we'd end up playing at Penn State in 29 degrees and a blizzard on Dec 20.
The round 1 playoffs on campus on Dec 20-21 have the distinct potential of being played outside in horrible weather, in places like Penn State or Indiana or BYU/Iowa State.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 4:31 pm to 318DeathValleyTiger
quote:
About all I know is LSU is in better shape than most teams, and would probably make the title game in the case of a UGA, Texas, A&M, and LSU tie.
The SEC will figure out some way to insert Bama in the Title game.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 4:40 pm to 318DeathValleyTiger
Too early for all the scenarios with so many games left to play. Waste of time.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 6:46 pm to paulb52
Yeah, that has become obvious
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