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re: Ross gets the start against Southern?
Posted on 5/26/09 at 8:17 pm to Cold Cous Cous
Posted on 5/26/09 at 8:17 pm to Cold Cous Cous
quote:
Boyd doesn't reveal his math. The only issue I have is those numbers are from the '98 and '99 seasons, which is quite some time ago. At the same time, even a gap of as little as 35 spots in ISRs translates into a higher than 99% chance that the higher ranked team will win. So for 150 spots I can imagine the odds are so close to zero as not to merit discussion.
Edit -- let's put it this way. LSU is as much above Southern as Southern is above Coppin State. Coppin State is 0-29.
That's not "spots" it's points.
quote:
In other words, when a team has had an ISR that was between 2 and 4 points higher than their opponent, they've won 55.8% of the time, for example. These aren't nearly as precise as they appear, of course, but they're fairly consistent between the two years, so it's probably a reasonably good approximation. This becomes more accurate as the year goes on and the ISR's are given more data for accuracy, of course.
The ISR gap is 22.4 which equates to a 94.4% winning percentage historically.
1
Posted on 5/26/09 at 8:18 pm to rmc
quote:
I'm not sure, why don't you go dig it up? I know they can hit. Of course they don't face the equivalent to Ranaudo or Coleman each weekend. But they aren't facing either.
I'm questioning if they've had success against a guy like Ross. I would suspect that they would be overmatched by him.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 8:18 pm to rmc
we pitch Ross, u got a decent chance to win, other than that, u lose
Posted on 5/26/09 at 8:20 pm to moneyg
quote:
I'm questioning if they've had success against a guy like Ross. I would suspect that they would be overmatched by him.
they beat San Diego St's 3rd starter at the beginning of the year. But Ross is better than that guy.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 8:21 pm to moneyg
quote:
That's not "spots" it's points.
quote:
The ISR gap is 22.4 which equates to a 94.4% winning percentage historically.
Thank you for the correction. I thought those numbers sounded fishy. 94% sounds a lot more realistic. It still leaves me fairly confident.
EDIT: Boyd just sent me an email:
quote:
Over time, the data fit itself nicely to a linear 2% per ISR point fit, so that's what I use these days, adjusted for home field advantage.
I assume he means "2% over 50/50 split." That gives us a 94.8% chance of winning (don't you love how faux precise these probabilities are?) plus an additional small bump for home field.
This post was edited on 5/26/09 at 8:27 pm
Posted on 5/26/09 at 9:22 pm to Papa Purple and Gold
why not let matulis start? he did a good job against SU earlier in the season.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 9:26 pm to lsudupont82
quote:
why not let matulis start? he did a good job against SU earlier in the season.
because there is a good chance we only need three starting pitchers this weekend. The top 3 starters need the first three opportunities to throw to keep them sharp for the Supers. It wouldn't be real good to go to a rubber match in the supers with Ross starting his first game in 17 days.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 9:42 pm to ProjectP2294
Y'all are some arrogant SOBs. Furthermore, it's not a statement against SU that they only have 4 wins against top 100. They haven't had the opportunity to face top teams. Also, take a look at the last few times SU has faced LSU. LSU has definitely not been dominant.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 9:47 pm to lotteri123
quote:Yes it is. They have like the 270th ranked strength of schedule in the country, yet still lost 15 games. No one is saying it's impossible for Southern to win, but it's pretty damn unlikely.
Furthermore, it's not a statement against SU that they only have 4 wins against top 100.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 9:50 pm to Cold Cous Cous
So, why has LSU had so much trouble with them in the last few games?
Posted on 5/26/09 at 9:52 pm to lotteri123
quote:
So, why has LSU had so much trouble with them in the last few games?
Link? If you're going to say crap like this bring evidence.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 9:54 pm to lotteri123
Posted on 5/26/09 at 10:03 pm to Cold Cous Cous
LSU 11 SU 5
LSU 8 SU 3
LSU 6 SU 1
LSU 3 SU 2
LSU 5 SU 9
LSU 21 SU 10
LSU 5 SU 4
LSU 6 SU 11
LSU has won most games but outside of the 21-10 game, its seems they have been competitive games.
LSU 8 SU 3
LSU 6 SU 1
LSU 3 SU 2
LSU 5 SU 9
LSU 21 SU 10
LSU 5 SU 4
LSU 6 SU 11
LSU has won most games but outside of the 21-10 game, its seems they have been competitive games.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 10:04 pm to Cold Cous Cous
ross is your guy.only way southern has a chance is throwing a frickin lefty.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 10:14 pm to lotteri123
quote:
LSU 11 SU 5
LSU 8 SU 3
LSU 6 SU 1
LSU 3 SU 2
LSU 5 SU 9
LSU 21 SU 10
LSU 5 SU 4
LSU 6 SU 11
now that you've coupled the letters LSU and SU around a seemingly random assortment of numbers, how 'bout you provide information like what year these games were played. Also, when has Southern faced LSU when LSU is throwing a weekend starter and has their regular lineup in the game?
Posted on 5/26/09 at 10:22 pm to ProjectP2294
and from ive seen we havent peaked yet.this might be our year. 
Posted on 5/26/09 at 10:28 pm to rmc
if you know this lsu team big boy then you know our weakness.do you have a good lefty.not great like minor but good.thats what lsu has trouble with.do you have a good lefty.i dont think yall have stats because yall dont frickin care.no slight against your coach because thats what yall have going for yall.good day sir.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 10:31 pm to tigermike200444
Posted on 5/26/09 at 10:42 pm to ProjectP2294
i was picking about the stats 
Posted on 5/26/09 at 11:17 pm to rmc
quote:
About 50% of the LSU baseball fanbase is bandwagon and has no idea how good or bad SU is, they just shoot shite from the hip because they have this perception that SU sucks.
Link?
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