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PREVIEW: LSU vs Michigan Monday 3/22 6:10pm CBS

Posted on 3/21/21 at 10:53 pm
Posted by LSUButt
Lowcountry
Member since Jan 2006
14930 posts
Posted on 3/21/21 at 10:53 pm
One down, one to go! After an absolutely dominating performance against St Bonaventure, LSU looks to take down the #1 seed Michigan.

Projected Lineup:

G Mike Smith- #12 SR 5'11 185
- 9.5ppg, 5.4apg, 43.5% 3P%
G Eli Brooks- #55 SR 6'1 185
- 9.2ppg, 39% 3P%, 92% FT%
G Franz Wagner- #21 Soph 6'9 220
- 12.7ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.0 apg, 37.8% 3P%, 84.6% FT%
F- Brandon Johns Jr- #23 JR 6'8 240
- 4.4ppg, 2.1rpg
C- Hunter Dickinson- #1 FR 7'1 255
- 14.3ppg, 7.3rpg, 60.7% FG%

Key Reserves:

G Chaundee Brown- #15 SR 6'5 215
- 7.4ppg, 2.9rpg, 39% 3P%
F Terrance Williams II- #5 FR 6'7 240
- 1.9ppg, 2.4rpg
F Austin Davis- #51 SR 6'10 250
- 5.6ppg, 2.9rpg

Player Breakdown

Guard Mike Smith is a grad transfer from Columbia University. He absolutely destroyed the Ivy League. Averaged 23ppg last season for Columbia but has been asked to be more of a facilitator now. He's a very good 3-point shooter but only 30% of his shots come from 3. He loves to penetrate into the lane and he's very good at kicking to very solid shooters or dumping it off to Dickinson.

Guard Eli Brooks has started the last two seasons. This season he's been asked to score a little less, but he's a very capable player. He shoots well from the outside but won't force shots. He really thrives at the FT line shooting 92%. However, he's not looking to attack the basket, he only has 39 FTA's all season. He's the epitome of a solid role player. Can score if you forget about him and doesn't make mistakes.

Guard Franz Wagner is a future NBA player. He's from Germany so he very much has a European game. Very good shot, but also very adept at slashing. I will say it a lot, but he's another player who won't make mistakes. 38% from 3, 85% FT shooter, 49% FG's overall. One thing to note though, since Livers has been out his scoring and percentage has been down.

Center Hunter Dickinson is their guy. He's an All-American (I think that's a sham) and 2nd team All Big Ten. He's a monster of a man and plays with an edge. He's not a shooter, but he is a throwback big man with great inside moves. Something that is very uncommon throughout the country but very relevant in the Big Ten is back to the basket big men. It's very old school basketball but it is effective. He has great moves and he's pretty athletic for his size.

Guard Chaundee Brown is another transfer. He was a 3 year starter at Wake Forest prior to Michigan. Averaged over 12ppg last season at WF. He really wants to shoot from the outside. He can attack but with Michigan he's asked to spread the floor for Dickinson. He's a solid role player off the bench for them.

Forwards Brandon Johns JR, Terrance Williams II, and Austin Davis are all role player forwards. Johns has seen an increased role with Livers out. He's a good player who is showing an ability to step out and spread the floor. Davis is another big man who is back to the basket and gives Dickinson a break.

Michigan Stats: (National Rank)
Offensive-

PPG: 76.5 (47th)
FG%: 48.3% (14th)
3P%: 38.5% (11th)
2P%: 53.5% (45th)
FT%: 77.9% (20th)
3PA: 19.8 (247th)
FTA: 17.0 (232nd)
APG: 15.6 (35th)
TOPG: 11.2 (46th)
ORPG: 8.1 (183rd)
OR%: 28% (103rd)
Possessions Per Game: 69.5 (251st)
Offensive Efficiency: 1.100 (15th)

Defensive-

PPG: 65.4 (47th)
FG%: 39.3% (11th)
3P%: 32.9% (118th)
2P%: 42.3% (3rd)
DRPG: 27.0 (16th)
DR%: 78.1% (37th)
Opponent OR%: 21.9% (37th)
Opponent FTA: 15.1 (43rd)
Opponent 3PA: 19.5 (69th)
BPG: 4.3 (48th)
SPG: 4.4 (33th)
Fouls Per Game: 15.0 (27th)
Defensive Efficiency: .941 (55th)

Stats Breakdown

Michigan's style is very easy to figure out. They play excellent defense, never gambling, funneling things to Dickinson and using length with Wagner, Dickinson, Johns/Davis to contest shots. In many ways, they are very similar defensively to St Bonaventure. They play disciplined, hard, tough. Chaundee Brown is an excellent defender, he provides a major spark off the bench for them.

As far as stats say, they do things pretty good. Their 2P defense is EXCELLENT. That's because of that length. They are vulnerable from deep. By no means will this be the best defense LSU has played this year, but it's very good and solid and will make LSU earn it.

Offensively, they're similar to their defense. They won't make mistakes, they won't force the issue, they will move the ball, force you to defend the entire floor. They shoot amazing from the FT line and the 3P line, but again, they won't force the issue. If they don't have an open player they won't shoot the 3 and will work the ball until they do. They work from the inside out. They want to get Dickinson LOTS of touches. Dickinson is a better passer out of the post than his numbers indicate. He gets doubled some and Michigan has been very good at spreading the floor and making the extra pass.

They play a slow pace and won't push the action if it is not there. They take care of the ball and really have few weaknesses.


This post was edited on 3/22/21 at 1:02 am
Posted by LSUButt
Lowcountry
Member since Jan 2006
14930 posts
Posted on 3/21/21 at 10:53 pm to
Prediction:

We've heard for years and years: GUARDS WIN THE IN THE NCAA TOURNAMENT. So I ask myself...who has better guards? Can 5'11 Mike Thomas guard 6'4 Javonte? Can 6'1 Eli Brooks guard Cam Thomas? Will they be forced to play Chaundee Brown and lose some offensive ability so he can be more length? Other side of the ball, will our length effect them?

I think the Big Ten and their style of play helps them in their league and hurts them in this tournament. SEC refs get trigger happy and call tons of fouls. On the flip side, Big Ten are able to mug each other. You can see that in the FTA per game for their teams. So then when the Tourney comes, they play too physical and here we are. In Michigan's first round matchup vs Texas Southern, TSU drew 9 fouls between Michigan's two Centers Dickinson and Davis. Tx Southern was able to attempt 26 FT's. I have to think if Tx Southern is able to do that, then if the officiating is nearly the same LSU should be able to get in the 20's if not to 30. If LSU gets that, not many teams can compete.

Against St Bonny, SBU missed some shots early and could never get it going. Michigan will have opportunities early. If they come out hot, they have the players to stay hot and keep insane pressure on us. I expect us to use some light double team pressure on Dickinson and force him to make good passes which lead to 3's.

Jimbeam made a great post earlier about why LSU has good point defense. Michigan does NOT want to shoot 25-30 3's. They want to be in the teens and grind it out inside. They have capable shooters, but they don't want to play that game. JB Post

Overall, I think Michigan is in trouble. Isaiah Livers is a dude. Dickinson gets the hype, but Livers is their best player. He started as a FR and has had so many big games. By far their best shooter, 6'7 230 can defend a PF like Days and force someone to guard him and gives them 4 capable shooters. Without Livers, the defensive rotation gets A LOT easier for LSU. On the opposite end, I don't know what Michigan is going to do.

I want to get this out of the way: LSU plays isolation ball. In the NCAA Tournament, that's what wins. Guards who take dudes off the dribble and make plays. That's an undeniable fact. You can't just run guys off screens and do these rigid plays, that's why some of these teams lose. Instead of just letting your best players go make plays they rely on specific things.

With that said, what is Michigan going to do with Dickinson on defense? He's going to guard Days? Ok, cool...so now your 7'1 player is on the perimeter and LSU will feast at offensive rebounding. He is going to guard Watford? Ok, cool...you can sag off of him, but Watford will be able to take him off the dribble and I can see foul trouble pile up on him. People look at "what will LSU do on defense", but sometimes (especially for LSU) best defense is a good offense. I am looking for LSU to attack and attack early. If you get Dickinson into foul trouble they become an average team. They earned their #1 seed, but without Livers they just aren't the same. Think about this, where would LSU be without Watford? If LSU can get Dickinson into foul trouble, they are going to be essentially missing their best two players. ETA: I’ve seen a couple guys talking about Josh Gray. Apparently Josh Gray is going to cover Dickinson some. Luckily Dickinson only averages 25 or so minutes, so if Gray can give us 10 decent defensive minutes, it would just be enormous for us.

I expect LSU to play at their pace and for Michigan to do it, as well. LSU will come out with the same energy they have the last 4 games and I think overall LSU has the better team.

LSU 81
Mich 73
This post was edited on 3/22/21 at 9:25 am
Posted by Lsutigerturner
Member since Dec 2016
5800 posts
Posted on 3/21/21 at 11:00 pm to
Damn they got some big dudes.


Posted by AZTiger7072
Tucson
Member since Oct 2011
2464 posts
Posted on 3/21/21 at 11:00 pm to
Agree 100%
Posted by WaydownSouth
Stratton Oakmont
Member since Nov 2018
8174 posts
Posted on 3/21/21 at 11:02 pm to
They have some dudes, but we have some DAWGS.
Posted by Tigercowboy
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2007
4109 posts
Posted on 3/21/21 at 11:03 pm to
Watching them against Texas Southern, it seem like TSU guards were beating Michigan’s guards off the dribble.

Javonte may have a Tennessee type game against Michigan’s Guards.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
118854 posts
Posted on 3/21/21 at 11:06 pm to


Sweet write up.
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
50840 posts
Posted on 3/21/21 at 11:07 pm to
Will Chris Webber be there to hold Juwan tomorrow night?





Posted by TigerLunatik
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Jan 2005
93705 posts
Posted on 3/21/21 at 11:10 pm to
quote:

Prediction

quote:

LSU 81
Mich 73

Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 3/21/21 at 11:10 pm to
I got mentioned in a LSU b-ball preview.

I believe this may be the highlight of my posting career.


Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
50840 posts
Posted on 3/21/21 at 11:11 pm to


Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
50840 posts
Posted on 3/21/21 at 11:11 pm to
Way to Geaux, JB, you deserve it

Posted by AZTiger7072
Tucson
Member since Oct 2011
2464 posts
Posted on 3/21/21 at 11:12 pm to
That a boy JB!

I ask this... how many teams left want to play that game? Baylor? Okie state (maybe)?
Zags and BAMA?
Posted by SeanLSU
Member since May 2019
1759 posts
Posted on 3/21/21 at 11:18 pm to
My biggest concern for our guys is whether we keep from getting put on the wrong side of the bonus too quickly each half. I worry about Michigan jamming the ball down in the paint and getting Watford, Days, Hyatt, Wilkinson, etc into foul trouble early. We need big minutes out of Watford, so this will be critical to watch in the game, imo.
Posted by Rohan Gravy
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2017
18006 posts
Posted on 3/21/21 at 11:18 pm to
Outstanding info


Thank you for the work you put in.
Posted by LSUButt
Lowcountry
Member since Jan 2006
14930 posts
Posted on 3/21/21 at 11:31 pm to


Pretty sure you're a legend, JB
This post was edited on 3/21/21 at 11:32 pm
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
164267 posts
Posted on 3/21/21 at 11:37 pm to
Michigan's last 7 games

W

L

W

L

W

L

W



Due for a loss
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
50840 posts
Posted on 3/21/21 at 11:40 pm to
Posted by Tiger Nation 84
Member since Dec 2011
36518 posts
Posted on 3/22/21 at 12:04 am to
frick it lets ride! It’s GAMEDAY!!!
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
118854 posts
Posted on 3/22/21 at 12:04 am to
quote:




Took me a second but I just got it.
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