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re: Potential SEC Scenarios and how it shapes the playoff
Posted on 10/29/24 at 9:30 am to LSUShock
Posted on 10/29/24 at 9:30 am to LSUShock
quote:
Who goes to the SEC Championship if LSU, UGA, and Texas all finish the season with 1 conference loss?
If LSU wins out, and UGA beats Tennessee, LSU would be in.
If Texas and Tennessee win out, LSU would be left out.
0
Posted on 10/29/24 at 9:30 am to extremelsu
Funny you have A&M and LSU the top two but Georgia, Texas, Tennessee are the three best SEC teams.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 9:34 am to extremelsu
I agree with your concept that there are no guarantees for SEC to get 4 in. The committee will have a large say in how these conferences compare when they lay out their ranking the first week or two and that will frame later discussion.
There is no doubt that SEC is competitive this year and has some top teams and several will be involved in playoff. But a up and coming LSU or A&M may upset the apple cart and push one of the committee favorites out in a numbers game by winning the SEC championship game. That makes that game worth having. The same goes for the other championship games and conferences. There will be some worthy teams left out but 12 is plenty.
There is no doubt that SEC is competitive this year and has some top teams and several will be involved in playoff. But a up and coming LSU or A&M may upset the apple cart and push one of the committee favorites out in a numbers game by winning the SEC championship game. That makes that game worth having. The same goes for the other championship games and conferences. There will be some worthy teams left out but 12 is plenty.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 9:46 am to LSUShock
Yeah but a team that made the SEC championship
Posted on 10/29/24 at 9:48 am to extremelsu
You think LSU is making an SEC Championship with 2 conference loses? No chance.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 9:53 am to LSUShock
quote:
You think LSU is making an SEC Championship with 2 conference loses? No chance.
While perhaps unlikely, it's not impossible.
Currently there is only 1 team (A&M) with zero conf. losses and only 4 with 1 loss. UGA and Tenn still have to play each other so that number will, at minimum, drop to 3. Is there a scenario where the league ends with only 1 team with 0-1 conf. losses and multiple teams with 2 losses? Yep. Again, maybe not likely...but not impossible either.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 12:53 pm to paulb52
quote:
Funny you have A&M and LSU the top two but Georgia, Texas, Tennessee are the three best SEC teams.
Maybe so, but Georgia and TN still have to play each other. So 1 will have 2 conf losses.
If TX beats A&M, and LSU somehow wins out, then you have a log jam with 4 schools with only 1 conf loss including:
LSU
A&M
TX
GA/TN
The above 4 would also be your SEC playoff teams.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 1:31 pm to paulb52
quote:
Funny you have A&M and LSU the top two but Georgia, Texas, Tennessee are the three best SEC teams.
because if LSU, UGA, Texas all win out (and Texas is only A&M loss) then A&M and LSU will be in the SEC CG.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 1:57 pm to paulb52
quote:that is how the tiebreaker would work out with lsu & a&m at the top.
Funny you have A&M and LSU the top two but Georgia, Texas, Tennessee are the three best SEC teams.
In what world is Tennessee at the top? On a neutral site id have Tennessee as the 7th best team in the SEC
Posted on 10/29/24 at 2:02 pm to ValleyTNTIGER
quote:
But a up and coming LSU or A&M may upset the apple cart and push one of the committee favorites out in a numbers game by winning the SEC championship game. That makes that game worth having.
and there are still a couple rather plausible scenarios that will make for some wild tie breaking to get into the SEC CG.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 2:09 pm to Nutriaitch
quote:
ecause if LSU, UGA, Texas all win out (and Texas is only A&M loss) then A&M and LSU will be in the SEC CG
That's not guaranteed.
The tiebreaking rules are somewhat convoluted and if all four of those teams finished 7-1 the tie breaker would be Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams (they only share one common opponent, Florida, whom in that scenario they would have all beaten). There is no way to know what those winning % are right now.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 3:18 pm to Alt26
So this WOULD be one of those times we could beat Florida by 50 (if only!) and everyone would understand it’s to get better placement at end of year, not running up the score, right?
Posted on 10/29/24 at 3:20 pm to lashinala
quote:
So this WOULD be one of those times we could beat Florida by 50 (if only!) and everyone would understand it’s to get better placement at end of year, not running up the score, right?
I'm never not going to want to kick Florida's arse. But for tie-breaker purposes a 1 point win is just as good as a 50 point win.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 3:24 pm to tigerbait2010
Seriously, record and resume?
Posted on 10/29/24 at 3:38 pm to Alt26
quote:
That's not guaranteed.
The tiebreaking rules are somewhat convoluted and if all four of those teams finished 7-1 the tie breaker would be Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams (they only share one common opponent, Florida, whom in that scenario they would have all beaten). There is no way to know what those winning % are right now.
you're right, it's not a guarantee.
this is assuming nothing ridiculous happens (like Miss. State winning out or something like that) in games not involving those 4 teams.
plus there are a lot of games left to be played that will have a neutral effect on anyone's cumulative opponent % (play both, or play neither).
This post was edited on 10/29/24 at 3:44 pm
Posted on 10/29/24 at 3:55 pm to extremelsu
Wouldn't we want aTm to beat UT? Also we would want UGA to beat Tenner. I would think our common opponent would help us over Tenner with 2 L's. Obviously, this really doesn't matter unless we win out.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 4:13 pm to extremelsu
Looks like the most likely scenario if we win out is that we would have to face A&M in the Championship, assuming they win out as well or even lose to Texas.
If that is the case, we're going to have to beat them in the rematch or I think we'll be left out, especially if Tennessee and Texas have 2 losses apiece and Georgia is sitting pretty with one loss.
Only hope in that scenario is that we beat Arkansas decisively in Fayetteville while Tennessee lost.
If that is the case, we're going to have to beat them in the rematch or I think we'll be left out, especially if Tennessee and Texas have 2 losses apiece and Georgia is sitting pretty with one loss.
Only hope in that scenario is that we beat Arkansas decisively in Fayetteville while Tennessee lost.
This post was edited on 10/29/24 at 4:23 pm
Posted on 10/29/24 at 4:49 pm to Sheriff Brackett
quote:agreed
If that is the case, we're going to have to beat them in the rematch or I think we'll be left out
quote:and that we’d have two good wins (bama, ole miss) while Tennessee will only have bama
Only hope in that scenario is that we beat Arkansas decisively in Fayetteville while Tennessee lost.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 5:08 pm to extremelsu
The crazy thing is even if LSU makes the sec championship game, it's a very good possibility that 4 other SEC teams will still be ranked ahead of them. A&m, Texas, Tenn, and Uga. Should be an interesting finish to the season/rankings
Posted on 10/29/24 at 5:31 pm to BTRtoIAH
quote:
Wouldn't we want aTm to beat UT?
if that happens, A&M is in at 8-0
quote:
Also we would want UGA to beat Tenner.
this game wouldn't matter as we hold a 2 way tie breaker over both.
would be record vs. common opponents.
LSU & UGA have 3 Common opponent: Florida, Alabama, Ole Miss.
LSU would be 3-0 over those teams and UGA would be 2-1
LSU and Tennessee have 5 common opponents:: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt.
LSU would be 5-0 over those teams and Tennessee is 4-1
quote:
Obviously, this really doesn't matter unless we win out.
there is a scenario (that not super far fetched) where LSU gets in with 2 conference losses.
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