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re: Possibility of a 10-2 LSU missing the playoffs?
Posted on 9/19/24 at 10:14 am to JimTiger72
Posted on 9/19/24 at 10:14 am to JimTiger72
quote:
Possibility of a 10-2 LSU
I'll stop you right there. About 2% chance. But if we do end up 10-2 we are most likely in the SEC championship. You win that you're obviously in, if you don't win that then you need some help. Maybe 30% chance of getting in. If you end up 10-2 and you don't go to Atlanta, I think your odds are probably closer to 50/50.
1
Posted on 9/19/24 at 10:29 am to JimTiger72
You're right, I wasn't looking at schedules. It just seems very unlikely to me that 6-8 teams will end up with 10+ wins. You have to have very specific results and I just think there are going to be some wrenches thrown in that will mess those up
Posted on 9/19/24 at 10:52 am to JimTiger72
Zero chance. And it would be best if we dropped the A&M game, which would mean we beat OM and Bama. It doesn't really matter who we lose to though, as 10-2 gets you into the top 8.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 10:56 am to JimTiger72
quote:
Does it matter which game we drop?
No, if we only lose 1 more with our schedule we are in.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 10:57 am to Basura Blanco
Anyone saying zero chance really hasn't looked at the schedules. The conference is so big, that half of the teams that are even in the 10 win conversation don't play the other half of the teams in the conversation. It's not going to "even out". There will be at least 6 teams fighting for 1 automatic birth, and the other teams will have to sweat it out on selection day. Period.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 11:17 am to lowhound
quote:
Anyone saying zero chance really hasn't looked at the schedules
Well, we only lost 1 game so far to a very good USC team. We also play several of the top teams. The best teams on our schedule would have to fall apart and our loss would have to be terrible. Obviously zero chance is always hyperbole, but it'd be very very low that we would be left out.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 11:32 am to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
Probably a moot point though, because this team hasn't played anywhere near good enough to go 10-2 up to this point.
We need a massive makeover to go 8-4 honestly. SC should’ve blown us out. I’ve never seen such a lucky win. People here are forgetting how bad we were at times. We were down 17-0 to a mediocre QB
But in the meantime I’ll take the delusional possibility because it’s fun
Posted on 9/19/24 at 11:35 am to High Life
quote:
But if we do end up 10-2 we are most likely in the SEC championship.
I don’t think so, you may have 3 or 4 teams in SEC at 7-1. I don’t think anyone goes 8-0, but Texas has the easiest schedule after their game at home against UGA
This post was edited on 9/19/24 at 11:36 am
Posted on 9/19/24 at 11:36 am to TN Tygah
quote:
We need a massive makeover to go 8-4 honestly. SC should’ve blown us out.
What game did you watch? We had several turnovers that we didn't recover. We were within the 5 multiple times for no points. They got a free 7 off an illegal blocked punt. We should have (and BK said this) won by multiple scores. We were clearly the better team just trying to beat ourselves and luckily we did not.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 11:37 am to JimTiger72
quote:
I disagree with this completely. You’re the 2nd best team in your conference, but the committee decides to put in 3-4 other SEC teams in ahead of you? No way
I didn't say they wouldn't get in. I said it would hurt their chances. As in, 10-3 is worse than 10-2. I don't think a 10-3 SEC runner-up would be viewed as the 2nd best team in the SEC (as illogically as that sounds). I do think they would still likely get in though.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 11:38 am to TigerKnights
quote:this is true
Well, we only lost 1 game so far to a very good USC team
quote:this, not so much.
We also play several of the top teams
Looking at what we have left, the best (on paper) are Bama, Ole Miss, and A&M.
Bama is highly ranked, but it's not Saban anymore, and people are watching to see if there's a drop off.
Ole Miss is highly ranked, but they're still Ole Miss with Kiffin- flashy and running the scores up on bad teams, and I don't expect them to hang with the top tier (Bama, Texas, UGA etc). They will have to prove otherwise before I believe in them. I still think we're going to beat them in Tiger Stadium.
A&M is unranked, and I thought they were overrated getting a ranking to begin with. They're also breaking in a new coach. The main reason I even list them is that it's on their field, and they've been tough at home recently vs us... but beating A&M isn't going to be an "oh wow" moment if it happens. If that game were in Tiger Stadium, I'd put the Oklahoma game ahead of it.
I think OU coming here to end the season, we handle them.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 11:58 am to JimTiger72
quote:
I don’t think so, you may have 3 or 4 teams in SEC at 7-1.
Absolutely. Tie-breakers will be used to figure out who's going to the SEC championship. Likely every year from now on.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 12:18 pm to Basura Blanco
I'm sitting here trying to imagine this LSU losing only one more game. Its difficult lol
Posted on 9/19/24 at 12:47 pm to TigerKnights
quote:
What game did you watch?
They had two pick 6's called back...
Posted on 9/19/24 at 12:47 pm to JimTiger72
quote:
Y’all aren’t counting on the other 10-2 teams around the country. My scenario would put LSU as the 4th or 5th best SEC team
You’ve got 4 other conference champs. At least two or three from Big10 (Ohio St, Oregon, USC, Penn St?)
We would be on the bubble with Ole Miss/Bama
Just go back through the years and look at rankings prior to the bowl season. Find a season where a 10-2 SEC team was not in the top 12.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 12:50 pm to JimTiger72
I think even if we lose a couple more games, we would be at 10-2. So it should not matter if we make the playoffs or not.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 12:54 pm to southsidedell
quote:I know people are panicking about how the team looks, but go check out the schedule:
I'm sitting here trying to imagine this LSU losing only one more game. Its difficult lol
Home vs UCLA
Home vs South Alabama
bye week
Home vs Ole Miss
At Arkansas
At A&M
Home vs Alabama
At Florida
Home vs Vanderbilt
Home vs Oklahoma to close the season
UCLA is awful, they just got blown out at home... by Indiana. South Alabama is what it is, we will win that. We get a bye to prepare for Ole Miss at home, probably under the lights- I think we take that.
At Arkansas doesn't scare me, at A&M does. Bama scares me, but it's here, and they have a new coach now, not Saban anymore... plus they're coming off @ Tennessee and vs Mizzou the previous 2 weeks.
Florida, the wheels have fallen off; Vandy is Vandy, and then Oklahoma- we're coming of Vandy, while OU is coming off Mizzou, a bye, then Bama at their house.
If we're still playing for something when they come in, we should roll.
I can see 4 games where we may lose; and I think we win at least 2 of them. Maybe 3.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 12:57 pm to JimTiger72
If we are 10-2 that means we didn’t go to SEC championship game. That means our only other loss is to a 1 loss team at most, most likely an undefeated team.
I think we are in.
I think we are in.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 1:09 pm to Lgrnwd
quote:
0% chance of an SEC team missing the playoffs at 10-2
Not 0, but it’s pretty low. Probably closer to 0 for LSU this year as we’d have to go 7-1 in the SEC and would be ahead of all the other 10-2 teams that would likely have been 6-2 in the SEC (I don’t think anybody capable of going 6-2 has any other losable OOC games left).
And they’ll factor in that 1 of our losses was in Game 1(even if they’re not technically supposed to) to—hopefully—a really good USC team. Would be great if they finished 1st or 2nd in the BIG. So we’d have gone 10-1 in our last 11 games to get to 10-2 with games against Ole Miss, Bama, A&M, and Oklahoma. That will go a long way, no matter who we lose to. Hard to see a scenario where we get left out at 10-2.
The real question is if we—or any other team—finishes 2nd in the SEC at 10-2 and make the SECCG and lose, finishing 10-3. Polls and the committee have historically hated losses and used it as the 1st metric to weed teams out. But I just can’t see how they could punish a team for making the SECCG and finishing 10-3 and putting a 10-2 Ole Miss, for example, who we would have likely beat in over us. Especially comparing our OOC schedules.
But whether we’re in it or not, it’s gonna be really interesting to see how they handle conference championship game losers. Because there’s no divisions and they’re taking the 2 best teams from the conference, I can’t see any way they leave the SECCG or BIGCG losers out completely. We’ll see.
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