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Posted on 6/12/15 at 3:18 pm to ell_13
quote:Ell, I just gave you a virtual high five
LSU is screwd if we lose game 2. We only have 2 set starters. So you put them in the order that gives you the best chance to win both. Lange gives us the best chance either day... but Poche gives us the better chance Sunday over Tuesday. That's what this comes down to.
This post was edited on 6/12/15 at 3:19 pm
Posted on 6/12/15 at 3:35 pm to Catman88
quote:
Worked out swell for Tony Robichaux
You do realize that it did work out, right?
Making a good decision doesn't guarantee a win.
There is no advantage to winning game one vs. game two.
You've got to play the percentages that give you the best chances of winning BOTH. Now, if you want to make the case that Lange/Poche gives us a better chance of being 2-0 than Poche/Lange, I'm all ears.
Posted on 6/12/15 at 3:39 pm to LSU 318 LSU
It's the only move IMO.... So many positives. Lefty heavy lineup, veteran presence, is hot, TCU had lots of trouble with a&m left and both are similar, and finally win and Lange will prob be facing Vandy which I think gives us the best chance against those guys as well. Love it!! Offense has to wake up and be aggressive when needed but patient at the same time. Go Tigers !!!
Posted on 6/12/15 at 4:16 pm to moneyg
quote:
I don't think that is exactly what is happening. He's not taking a more risky path. He's just looking at game 1 and game 2 together and figuring out the scenario which gives LSU the best chance of winning BOTH.
No, I think it is because TCU has 7 lefty hitters. This isn't complicated
Posted on 6/12/15 at 4:18 pm to ell_13
quote:
LSU is screwd if we lose game 2. We only have 2 set starters. So you put them in the order that gives you the best chance to win both. Lange gives us the best chance either day... but Poche gives us the better chance Sunday over Tuesday. That's what this comes down to.
Boom! What I've been saying all week.
Posted on 6/12/15 at 4:22 pm to ShermanTxTiger
Astro posted some splits. They actually hit lefties better than righties but it's not a big discrepancy.
Posted on 6/12/15 at 4:46 pm to Dizz
quote:
I think this has more to do with Lange getting rest then thinking about games deeper in the tournament.
Seems similar to Renaudo and Coleman in 2009. Renaudo was the stud, but Coleman was the bulldog with the rubber arm. I think Coleman ended up pitching as either a reliever or a starter in 4 of their games in the CWS, although Renaudo did start in game 1 and pitched into the 4th inning.
Posted on 6/12/15 at 4:48 pm to moneyg
quote:
You do realize that it did work out, right?
Making a good decision doesn't guarantee a win.
It didn't work out. The lost game one because their starter gave up 3 early runs. It was a deficit they could not overcome, but had Leger pitched like he did on day 2, they very well could have won that game. You don't ever cede a game. Don't leave bullets in the chamber because you never know when the bats go dormant.
Posted on 6/12/15 at 5:06 pm to therick711
quote:
It didn't work out. The lost game one because their starter gave up 3 early runs. It was a deficit they could not overcome, but had Leger pitched like he did on day 2, they very well could have won that game. You don't ever cede a game. Don't leave bullets in the chamber because you never know when the bats go dormant.
That's ridiculous.
ULL was in a 3-3 game in the 9th and had it's ace in game 2 against LSU's #2 starter. And, the ace pitched great for 7 innings and kept them close. That is EXACTLY what Robichaux was hoping for. It worked perfectly.
The fact that you can't get past the outcome shows that you struggle with the concept of a good decision that ultimately doesn't work out.
Posted on 6/12/15 at 5:07 pm to therick711
quote:
You don't ever cede a game
Also, this isn't happening. This is a straw man you are creating.
Posted on 6/12/15 at 5:15 pm to LSU 318 LSU
Not smart, but what would you expect from Paul?
Lange is easily the ace, giving up less hits, less runs, less earned runs, less doubles, less homers, and striking out nearly double the batters.
Lange's Opp BA is 35 points lower than Poche's - even if every lefty in TCU's lineup gains a 'huge' 50 points to their batting average vs a righty, you're still looking at almost the same number of hits from them you could expect with Pouche' on the mound, plus Pouche's Opp BA for the right handers as well (note: even at 50 points more is only 1 more in every 20 at bats).
Plus, whoever starts game 1 gets an extra day's rest should you need them again later - you need that to be your ace.
The 'matchups' ideal is overplayed. There is a reason why almost every team rolls with their ace in game 1 every time.
Lange is easily the ace, giving up less hits, less runs, less earned runs, less doubles, less homers, and striking out nearly double the batters.
Lange's Opp BA is 35 points lower than Poche's - even if every lefty in TCU's lineup gains a 'huge' 50 points to their batting average vs a righty, you're still looking at almost the same number of hits from them you could expect with Pouche' on the mound, plus Pouche's Opp BA for the right handers as well (note: even at 50 points more is only 1 more in every 20 at bats).
Plus, whoever starts game 1 gets an extra day's rest should you need them again later - you need that to be your ace.
The 'matchups' ideal is overplayed. There is a reason why almost every team rolls with their ace in game 1 every time.
This post was edited on 6/12/15 at 5:18 pm
Posted on 6/12/15 at 5:18 pm to RoaringTiger33
quote:
Not smart, but what would you expect from Paul?
Do you consider yourself smart?
Posted on 6/12/15 at 5:24 pm to RoaringTiger33
quote:
Not smart, but what would you expect from Paul?
lol
Posted on 6/12/15 at 5:26 pm to RoaringTiger33
All that just to say Lange is the better pitcher. Very observant. Gold star.
Posted on 6/12/15 at 6:04 pm to moneyg
False.
Posted on 6/12/15 at 7:32 pm to TigerCub
quote:
Astro posted some splits. They actually hit lefties better than righties but it's not a big discrepancy.
But we don't know the quality of those pitchers and as a rule you would always look for a lefty/lefty advantage. (even if it is psychological)
Posted on 6/12/15 at 7:38 pm to ShermanTxTiger
What's odd is a few of the lefties hit lefties better. And it's not close.
Posted on 6/12/15 at 7:49 pm to ffishstik
quote:
Renaudo was the stud, but Coleman was the bulldog with the rubber arm. I think Coleman ended up pitching as either a reliever or a starter in 4 of their games in the CWS, although Renaudo did start in game 1 and pitched into the 4th inning.
Louis Coleman was the SEC pitcher of the year. Im pretty sure that qualifies as being the stud.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 3:49 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
RoaringTiger33
quote:
Not smart, but what would you expect from Paul?
Lange is easily the ace, giving up less hits, less runs, less earned runs, less doubles, less homers, and striking out nearly double the batters.
Lange's Opp BA is 35 points lower than Poche's - even if every lefty in TCU's lineup gains a 'huge' 50 points to their batting average vs a righty, you're still looking at almost the same number of hits from them you could expect with Pouche' on the mound, plus Pouche's Opp BA for the right handers as well (note: even at 50 points more is only 1 more in every 20 at bats).
Plus, whoever starts game 1 gets an extra day's rest should you need them again later - you need that to be your ace.
The 'matchups' ideal is overplayed. There is a reason why almost every team rolls with their ace in game 1 every time.
quote:
Do you consider yourself smart?
quote:
lol
not so funny now is it?
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