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Penrod
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2011
9907 posts

Orgeron has optimism bias
Consider these examples

1. When Orgeron was named permanent HC he offered the #1 HS QB, and Bama commit, a scholarship. This shook up Myles Brennan and Lowell Narcisse, and I believe that both decommitted. What happened? It seems that Orgeron was talking to Lane Kiffen about being our OC. Lane had secured TUA's committment to Bama, and he probably told Orgeron that Tua would switch to LSU if Lane did.

2. At the end of the recent recruiting season Orgeron turned away some solid talent (e.g. Adarius and Goodrich) because he thought Surtain, Chase and Foster were in the bag.

Both of these instances show a shocking overconfidence and lack of prudence. These are only two examples in a - so far - short HC gig, but they might portend a dangerous pattern. Is Orgeron delusional?


Brazos
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2013
12367 posts

re: Orgeron has optimism bias
It just seems like he makes a lot of decisions on the fly, almost as if he has no real plan at all.


Blanky6715
LSU Fan
Dallas, TX
Member since Jul 2014
3517 posts

re: Orgeron has optimism bias
Give me an example that doesn't involve recruiting. Just curious to what optimism bias looks like without it


geauxtigers87
USA Fan
NOLA
Member since Mar 2011
16462 posts

re: Orgeron has optimism bias
They're still working out the appendices im the binder


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62
beauchristopher
LSU Fan
new orleans
Member since Jan 2008
43995 posts
 Online 

re: Orgeron has optimism bias
O has always been in over his head.

He gets way too much credit for taking over two very talented teams during a season and having them play lose and win a few games they should have won regardless. He’s not a guy to run a program. Literally no other program in America would hire him as HC. It’s ridiculous he actually got this gig.


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283
tigertex1992
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Apr 2014
916 posts

re: Orgeron has optimism bias
It comes across as flakey.


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02
schwartzy
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2014
6076 posts

re: Orgeron has optimism bias
He has being a moron bias disease


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152
dos crystal
LSU Fan
Georgia
Member since Aug 2008
4098 posts

re: Orgeron has optimism bias
I believe he thinks he has more credibility than he has.

He sees himself as Pete Caroll, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer equals with out the skins on the wall. It’s why he’s shocked/surprised when people don’t trust him, follow what he says or a recruit goes another was.

He hasn’t realized that stature is earned over time. To get there you have to have a plan, grind against all to execute it. As the wins mount, the respect grows.

To me, he’s a typical Cajun. Always name dropping, talking extreme, heights (I get the best coaching staff/o.c. in the country) without nothing to back it up. Otherwise, quit talking the talk and focus on walking the walk.

He has some good qualities, he is a good talent evaluater, great Dline coach, personable guy. Play to those strengths, hire competent people to take care of the other stuff that isn’t your strength. This takes trust though, which is something he obviosly struggles with.


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173
Solo Cam
LSU Fan
Metairie
Member since Sep 2015
10207 posts

re: Orgeron has optimism bias
Lane wasn’t Tua’s recruiter. Tosh Lupoi was. O has no idea what’s going on.


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61
NotLSUSports
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2018
160 posts

re: Orgeron has optimism bias
Orgeron is a potato.


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101
El Magnifico
LSU Fan
La casa de tu mamá
Member since Jan 2014
3095 posts

re: Orgeron has optimism bias
quote:

he has no real plan at all


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31
LSU GrandDad
LSU Fan
houston, texas
Member since Jun 2009
20886 posts

re: Orgeron has optimism bias
quote:

Both of these instances show a shocking overconfidence and lack of prudence


no they don't.

you don't have near enough credible information to make this claim. this tells me you are a fraud and not a legitimate psychologist.


geauxcoco
LSU Fan
Charleston, SC
Member since Apr 2007
4962 posts

re: Orgeron has optimism bias
O is still trying to figure out how to be a HC, plain and simple. In short, he has no idea at all if what he is doing will work. Makes me wanna


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61
Dave England
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2013
4676 posts

re: Orgeron has optimism bias
His unearned ego is one of the most bizarre aspects of his personality.


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121
Goldrush25
Washington Fan
San Diego, CA
Member since Oct 2012
21446 posts

re: Orgeron has optimism bias
Was thinking this same thing but couldn't put a label on it.

He only ever considers the best possible outcome and never prepares for the most likely or negative outcome. His horde thinks the same way.

It's great to have belief in yourself but not to the point that it clouds rational judgement, which for O seems to be frequently. That's the definition of delusion.
This post was edited on 2/9 at 9:06 am


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62
Penrod
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2011
9907 posts

re: Orgeron has optimism bias
quote:

Give me an example that doesn't involve recruiting. Just curious to what optimism bias looks like without it



Salesmen who always overestimate the chances of a sale going through. In my business we do construction projects. We used to partner with a construction company. Sometimes they would bring deals to us. This one guy, Randy, would always say, "This one's almost a done deal." Of course, most of those never happened.


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41
Penrod
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2011
9907 posts

re: Orgeron has optimism bias
quote:

you don't have near enough credible information to make this claim. this tells me you are a fraud and not a legitimate psychologist.



Well, I could have told you that.


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30
ChEgrad
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2012
1349 posts

re: Orgeron has optimism bias
What if Kiffin hadn't been offered the head coaching job, came here and landed Tua? TD would be overjoyed right now: we would have an OC everyone thinks is great, a top-notch QB, AND Alabama would not have won the national championship game.

Seems to me, that is a chance O should have taken. It is just unfortunate FAU was stupid enough/smart enough to take a chance on Kiffin. I think O made the right move there, it just didn't work out. Hindsight is 20/20.


Goldrush25
Washington Fan
San Diego, CA
Member since Oct 2012
21446 posts

re: Orgeron has optimism bias
quote:

What if Kiffin hadn't been offered the head coaching job, came here and landed Tua? TD would be overjoyed right now: we would have an OC everyone thinks is great, a top-notch QB, AND Alabama would not have won the national championship game


We could play the "what if" game forever. Those were low probability events. There was never any indication that Lane was coming here. And Orgeron wasn't going to swoop in at the last moment and steal the top ranked QB in the country from Bama.

I can win the next Powerball. Just because something technically can happen doesn't mean its worth your while to try. We almost lost two QBs because of Orgeron's stunt, when we have a difficult enough time as it is getting QBs.
This post was edited on 2/9 at 10:41 am


ChEgrad
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2012
1349 posts

re: Orgeron has optimism bias
quote:

We could play the "what if" game forever. Those were low probability events. There was never any indication that Lane was coming here.


Had FAU not offered Kiffin the head coaching job, I think the probability that Kiffin comes to LSU was very high.


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