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Orgeron has optimism bias

Posted on 2/9/18 at 7:41 am
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
39369 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 7:41 am
Consider these examples

1. When Orgeron was named permanent HC he offered the #1 HS QB, and Bama commit, a scholarship. This shook up Myles Brennan and Lowell Narcisse, and I believe that both decommitted. What happened? It seems that Orgeron was talking to Lane Kiffen about being our OC. Lane had secured TUA's committment to Bama, and he probably told Orgeron that Tua would switch to LSU if Lane did.

2. At the end of the recent recruiting season Orgeron turned away some solid talent (e.g. Adarius and Goodrich) because he thought Surtain, Chase and Foster were in the bag.

Both of these instances show a shocking overconfidence and lack of prudence. These are only two examples in a - so far - short HC gig, but they might portend a dangerous pattern. Is Orgeron delusional?
Posted by Brazos
Member since Oct 2013
20361 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 7:42 am to
It just seems like he makes a lot of decisions on the fly, almost as if he has no real plan at all.
Posted by Blanky6715
Dallas, TX
Member since Jul 2014
4377 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 7:44 am to
Give me an example that doesn't involve recruiting. Just curious to what optimism bias looks like without it
Posted by geauxtigers87
Louisiana
Member since Mar 2011
25207 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 7:51 am to
They're still working out the appendices im the binder
Posted by beauchristopher
new orleans
Member since Jan 2008
65985 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 7:52 am to
O has always been in over his head.

He gets way too much credit for taking over two very talented teams during a season and having them play lose and win a few games they should have won regardless. He’s not a guy to run a program. Literally no other program in America would hire him as HC. It’s ridiculous he actually got this gig.
Posted by tigertex1992
Houston
Member since Apr 2014
1863 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 7:58 am to
It comes across as flakey.
Posted by schwartzy
New Orleans
Member since May 2014
9032 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 7:59 am to
He has being a moron bias disease
Posted by dos crystal
Georgia
Member since Aug 2008
4720 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 8:03 am to
I believe he thinks he has more credibility than he has.

He sees himself as Pete Caroll, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer equals with out the skins on the wall. It’s why he’s shocked/surprised when people don’t trust him, follow what he says or a recruit goes another was.

He hasn’t realized that stature is earned over time. To get there you have to have a plan, grind against all to execute it. As the wins mount, the respect grows.

To me, he’s a typical Cajun. Always name dropping, talking extreme, heights (I get the best coaching staff/o.c. in the country) without nothing to back it up. Otherwise, quit talking the talk and focus on walking the walk.

He has some good qualities, he is a good talent evaluater, great Dline coach, personable guy. Play to those strengths, hire competent people to take care of the other stuff that isn’t your strength. This takes trust though, which is something he obviosly struggles with.
Posted by Solo Cam
Member since Sep 2015
32644 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 8:07 am to
Lane wasn’t Tua’s recruiter. Tosh Lupoi was. O has no idea what’s going on.
Posted by NotLSUSports
Member since Jan 2018
234 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 8:24 am to
Orgeron is a potato.
Posted by El Magnifico
La casa de tu mamá
Member since Jan 2014
7017 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 8:47 am to
quote:

he has no real plan at all
Posted by LSU GrandDad
houston, texas
Member since Jun 2009
21564 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 8:50 am to
quote:

Both of these instances show a shocking overconfidence and lack of prudence


no they don't.

you don't have near enough credible information to make this claim. this tells me you are a fraud and not a legitimate psychologist.
Posted by geauxcoco
Greenville, SC
Member since Apr 2007
11024 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 8:55 am to
O is still trying to figure out how to be a HC, plain and simple. In short, he has no idea at all if what he is doing will work. Makes me wanna
Posted by Dave England
Member since Apr 2013
5107 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 8:56 am to
His unearned ego is one of the most bizarre aspects of his personality.
Posted by Goldrush25
San Diego, CA
Member since Oct 2012
33794 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 9:01 am to
Was thinking this same thing but couldn't put a label on it.

He only ever considers the best possible outcome and never prepares for the most likely or negative outcome. His horde thinks the same way.

It's great to have belief in yourself but not to the point that it clouds rational judgement, which for O seems to be frequently. That's the definition of delusion.
This post was edited on 2/9/18 at 9:06 am
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
39369 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 9:26 am to
quote:

Give me an example that doesn't involve recruiting. Just curious to what optimism bias looks like without it



Salesmen who always overestimate the chances of a sale going through. In my business we do construction projects. We used to partner with a construction company. Sometimes they would bring deals to us. This one guy, Randy, would always say, "This one's almost a done deal." Of course, most of those never happened.
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
39369 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 9:28 am to
quote:

you don't have near enough credible information to make this claim. this tells me you are a fraud and not a legitimate psychologist.



Well, I could have told you that.
Posted by ChEgrad
Member since Nov 2012
3265 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 10:29 am to
What if Kiffin hadn't been offered the head coaching job, came here and landed Tua? TD would be overjoyed right now: we would have an OC everyone thinks is great, a top-notch QB, AND Alabama would not have won the national championship game.

Seems to me, that is a chance O should have taken. It is just unfortunate FAU was stupid enough/smart enough to take a chance on Kiffin. I think O made the right move there, it just didn't work out. Hindsight is 20/20.
Posted by Goldrush25
San Diego, CA
Member since Oct 2012
33794 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 10:38 am to
quote:

What if Kiffin hadn't been offered the head coaching job, came here and landed Tua? TD would be overjoyed right now: we would have an OC everyone thinks is great, a top-notch QB, AND Alabama would not have won the national championship game


We could play the "what if" game forever. Those were low probability events. There was never any indication that Lane was coming here. And Orgeron wasn't going to swoop in at the last moment and steal the top ranked QB in the country from Bama.

I can win the next Powerball. Just because something technically can happen doesn't mean its worth your while to try. We almost lost two QBs because of Orgeron's stunt, when we have a difficult enough time as it is getting QBs.
This post was edited on 2/9/18 at 10:41 am
Posted by ChEgrad
Member since Nov 2012
3265 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 11:07 am to
quote:

We could play the "what if" game forever. Those were low probability events. There was never any indication that Lane was coming here.


Had FAU not offered Kiffin the head coaching job, I think the probability that Kiffin comes to LSU was very high.
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