re: Official Brice Turang Watch Thread - Updated - Friday @ 4pm Deadline

It’s pretty far fetched. Since the draft went to this format in 2012 only 4 of 189 players selected in the first round didn’t sign. All four of those were pitchers, and at least two of them had medical issues discovered after the draft which torpedoed their negotiations. Also of those four, only one was a high school player who bypassed signing and went to college.

It isn’t impossible but it’s pretty close. Under the current system, when a team anticipates the number or signability being an issue the player just drops to a less risky position. While both sides are playing hardball, there is very little chance the Brewers didn’t know what it would take to sign him when they drafted him.

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we're going off too many assumptions at the moment.

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Obviously.

I just don't think they'll get to that perfect number. Not every 11+ round guy will sign for 125, too. I think bubbz can add those in as well since anything over 125 will come out of the pool.

It’s not as black and white as him just using his commitment to lsu as leverage. For years he’s stated he wants to go to school, his family is wealthy, and both his parents and all his siblings were student athletes. A small part of the reason he fell so far is when his stock fell due to an average spring, his number stayed the same and teams didn’t want to pay that. His interest in school is legit, but in the end it’s hard to pass up what he will be offered.

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That is where you are dead wrong. He was drafted late in the first round, with a slot of around 3 million. If he goes to school I believe it's super realistic to expect him to be drafted top 5, which is anywhere between 5-2 million more in slot value.

So, let's put in all in prespective, since you say getting an education is the ONLY benefit to coming to LSU.

1. Obviously the education

2. Moving up in the first round allows him to make a lot more money. Obviously, there is no guarantee he moves up in the first round, but chances are he does.

3. Three years in college will make him 3 years older, wiser, stronger, playing against great competition. Similar to the level of minor league ball.

4. Is a combination of 2 And 3. While his signing bonus would be nice, his journey through the minors will not result in a big pay check. So, as he works his way up, that signing bonus will slowly (or quickly if he isn't smart with it) disappear. So, going to LSU could potentially both earn him a much much larger bonus plus get him closer to playing in the MLB quicker (see Bregman).



Now....all that being said, he probably will sign with the Brewers. However, it isn't as far fetched and as crazy as some of you think.

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I think the education is a non-issue. The guy isn't coming to LSU (or any school) to get an education. He's coming to play baseball. Which is fine.

He certainly could move up in the draft. But that draft would be what 2, 3 years away? He was picked 21st now. There isn't a whole hell of a lot of room to move up even if the risk works out for him. Plus, what's the time value of money here? You could argue $3.5 million NOW is worth as much or more than what he "could" get in a future signing bonus 2-3 years later.

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Three years in college will make him 3 years older, wiser, stronger, playing against great competition. Similar to the level of minor league ball.

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If he can do that in minor league ball AND have $3.5 million to invest while gaining that experience, why do it in college for "free"?

It's not a similar situation to Bregman in that Bregman's injury kept him out of the first round. For Bregman, it was either first round or bust and he (likely) would have been one but for the injury. When he wasn't taken in the first round, he had significant room to improve his draft position. For Turang, that's not quite the case since he is already a first rounder

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Obviously.

I just don't think they'll get to that perfect number. Not every 11+ round guy will sign for 125, too. I think bubbz can add those in as well since anything over 125 will come out of the pool.

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That's another thing I haven't brought up but it's worth mentioning and you make a good point.

The Brewers took a couple of flyers in the 10's-20's (including Cabell).

If things don't work out with Turang (which I don't think it will come to that) the theory is they'll come out with 2 first round picks next year and be able to offer more to a high ceiling high school product.

You don’t get a compensation pick in the first round if your pick is outside the top 10

Is that what they give? I really don’t know for sure, I just know you don’t get another 1st if it’s outside the top 10. Thought comp A was only for losing free agents with QO’s

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Plus, what's the time value of money here? You could argue $3.5 million NOW is worth as much or more than what he "could" get in a future signing bonus 2-3 years later.

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You really couldn't argue that. Without knowing the interest rate, let's assume 10% annual which is very high and the entire 3.5 mil is invested. And this isn't taking into account taxes (30-40%) and paying someone to manage the money AND ignoring him using any of it for personal use

At best over 3 years, he's approaching 5 mil (very generous rounding) in this ridiculous, impossible scenario I laid out. Likely he'd may be approaching his initial bonus by the end of 3 years; if lucky

Now if he came to school, 13 up is 4 mil plus; 4.5 is top 10; just under 6 mil for top 5

EDIT: FYI present value of 4.5 mil is still above his assigned slot value (at 10%... Still crazy high, but wanted to stay consistent)

TVM only supports him coming to LSU
And the likelihood is that (if he is to make it as a pro) he'd get there in less time following college; recent stats support college guys spend less time in the minors

That said, doubt he comes to LSU

If I were his parent, I'd advise him to bet on himself and shoot for top 5 in three years, but that's because I'm all about setting future me up

I saw on the Brewers website that they would get the 22nd pick next year if Turang doesn't sign. Not sure how legitimate that is though.

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However, looking at the big picture, if he would flame out at LSU then he almost certainly flames out in the minors and that 3.5 signing bonus wouldn't carry him the rest of his life any way. In which case, he benefits more from the college education

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or he just uses that 3.5 to go to college after flaming out in the minors.