OFFICIAL BCS THREAD - UPDATED. BOISE #1 - yikes!!!

*** See below. Updated at 7:15 pm with Harris and 4 computers

Yeah, that’s right. 6-0. FUN-A-TIGERS only allowed here. This thread is NOT to talk about how you think LSU will lose more games or doesn’t deserve to win a National Title. It is to talk about what would happen if LSU hypothetically keeps winning. This also isn’t a thread to say “it’s too early” or “we shouldn’t look ahead”. I don’t play for the team. I am a fan. And it’s fun to talk about a NC while I still can.

WEEKLY THREADS
I will try to start this thread weekly on Sunday or Monday as long as LSU is undefeated or has 1 loss. I have written a program to re-create the Colley matrix poll and one thing I like to do is post a “Future Poll” - what will the Colley poll (and really all computer polls) look like if the favorite always wins. Finally, I and a few of you fellow ranters (xiv and the poster formerly known as TUBA) have created their own computer polls. I might create a weekly thread with those polls and even a Mock Rant BCS. If you have created a LEGIT computer poll, let me know how it works and I’ll include it. It’s always good to hear other people’s thoughts as long as they remain funatigers.


HOW THE BCS WORKS
The BCS is 2/3 subjective human polls (Coaches Poll and Harris) and 1/3 Computer Polls (an average of 6 with the high and low dropped). I think it is a good balance because the subjective polls can account for things we can see on the field and margin of victory (MOV). But they are subject to biases like history, tradition and pre-season ranking. The computer polls DO NOT include MOV or have a pre-season ranking (with the exception of Billingsly which is usually dropped as an outlier). More on the computer polls in an upcoming thread, but these polls Sagarin, Massey, Billingsly, Anderson, Wolfe, COLLEY all have a unique formula that determines a team’s strength based on their record and some measure of strength of schedule.

Myth #1. Margin of Victory is included in computer polls and preseason rankings effect the computer polls. Fact - MOV is NOT included and preseason rankings are only included as part of the final Billingsly Poll (a couple of polls use them in early weeks and drop them).

Myth #2. Strength of Schedule is somehow tied to the human polls. Fact - The computers are independent of the human polls and use their own rankings to determine SOS.

Consider an example. Team A received 2672 Harris points out of a total of 25*114 voters =0.9458. They received 1390 Coaches points out of a total of 25*59 voters = 0.9980. They are ranked #1 in 5 polls and #4 in the 6th. The high and low is dropped, so the average is 1.00 and (26-1.00)/25 = 1.0000. Averaging the 3 together = (0.9458+0.9980 +1.0000)/3 = 0.9812. Teams are then sorted by their BCS score.

Myth #3. Since computer polls only account for 1/3, they don’t matter if you are ahead of a team in the computers if you are behind in the human polls. Fact - the computers matter. For one, for every two spots you are ahead in the computers that makes up one spot you are behind in the human polls. Second, we deal with fractions. LSU might be behind OU in the polls, but some voters put LSU ahead, so it isn’t a “whole spot”.


THE RANKINGS

They officially come out next weekend (Oct 17), but we can speculate now even though the Harris poll and some computers haven’t been released yet. The Harris mimics the Coaches Poll mostly anyway. And when all is said and done the computers mostly agree too. I really hate to talk about current BCS standings because they are only a snapshot and don’t necessarily indicate what would happen if the teams keep winning. Nonetheless, I will post what I think they will be in the future.

Myth 4. It is very difficult to get jumped by a team behind you in the human polls if you win. Fact- It is difficult to FALL in the human polls if you win, but it is easy to get “leapfrogged”. It is also possible to gain or lose a few points depending on style. If your Boise State, none of this applies.

Here are the calculated BCS standings with FOUR computer polls. Here is exactly why I hate BCS "snpashots". The computer polls are all over the place right now and giving to much weight as a result. The computers are currently HELPING Boise when they will eventually do them in.

1.Boise State. (0.926) I don’t care what their ranking is, those computers are gonna kill them. Unless Va Tech and OSU win out, I just can’t imagine their human ranking good enough to overcome what will be an abysmal computer score. I am not sure they get in over a 1-loss SEC team.

2.Oregon. (0.872) Should challenge for the #1 spot in the human polls as long as they put up good numbers. The Pac10 is a bit stronger this year and Oregon plays 10 BCS schools too so their computer score should be relatively strong this year. They should be fine if they win out, but a an undefeated SEC or Big 12 could cause trouble for them

3.TCU. (0.856) Probably in much better shape than Boise. But they’ll be behind any undefeated BCS school at the end of the season. Computers will weigh them down like an anchor.

4.Oklahoma. (0.849) Playing FSU OOC and potentially Nebraska in the Big12CG should make for a decent computer score. It may be weaker than Oregon’s but probably stronger than Ohio State’s. But if OU can’t find a way to jump into the top 2 of the human polls, they could be in trouble.

5.Ohio State. (0.822) Should be #1 (or share it) in the human polls as long as they win out and it is damn hard to not make the title game as #1 in the current format. Their schedule is okay (stronger Big10 and play Miami), but their computer ranking won’t compare to SEC schools with like records.

6.LSU. (0.788) LSU’s computer score would be even better than AU’s I think. They have already played the toughest schedule of any undefeated and it only gets worse. The SEC gets respect, but will Les Miles and his perceived lucky wins hurt him? I have a feeling no, unless it persists. I guarantee you the other top teams will have their share of close calls.

7.Nebraska. (0.764) Like OU, they’ll need help. The Big 12 as a conference is good, but they don’t play anybody top caliber until the Big12CG. They probably don’t get in over OSU, UO, or LSU/AU

8.Auburn. (0.726) The SEC is top notch again and the SECW is even tougher. AU plays an play Clemson team and another top 10 caliber team in the SECCG if they are good enough to matter. All that should add up to a lock-tight computer ranking. Moreover, I think voters give them the benefit of the doubt in the human polls given the SEC’s recent dominance. They may not jump teams above them, but steal some votes.

9. MSU. (0.635) See Ohio State, except MSU doesn't have a high preseason ranking to fall back on. They don't stand a chance against an SEC, Big12 or Pac10 team.

10.Alabama. (0.623) Should beat out any 1 loss team. I think they beat out Boise and TCU too.

**please let me know how we can make these weekly threads better