re: OFFICIAL BCS THREAD - UPDATED. BOISE #1 - yikes!!!

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Does rich tellshow still provide his BCS projections?

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Tellshow has always been an outstanding site. He seems to care less and less every year though and doesn't update the information till November. But its good website to get links.

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Boise State. (0.926) I don’t care what their ranking is, those computers are gonna kill them.

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Boise's comp ranking is currently very strong, but will fade fast

Sagarin 3
A&H 6
Bill 2
Colley 5
Massey 2
Wolfe ?

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They all mimic eachother, there isn't much difference in any at the end of the season

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True, and last year it was dead on with the coaches, but historically (all 5 years ) and in theory it's a replacement for the AP that pulled out.

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future polls don't mean crap right now. Way too much can happen, and weird outcomes in games between teams not in the top 50 will matter.

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It gives a good idea of how far Boise could fall by the end of the season. I didn't say it was perfect, but fun to look at it. People can take it for what its worth. Plus in theory I could do Monte Carlo simulations to get a distribution but I haven't had the time to put that kind of effort into it.

Some bitch on espn2 just stated how she was shocked about LSU being #6 in the projected poll because we got lucky in a couple of wins..

Apparently nobody gives LSU any credit for playing one of the tougest schedules.. But hail Boise State and their win over nobody.

Great thread! Thanks for the hard work on this.

I have one question.

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Oregon plays 10 BCS schools too so their computer score should be relatively strong this year.

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Do the computer polls intrinsically rank BCS schools as tougher opponents than non-BCS schools or does it just work out this way from records and opponent records alone?

TIA

This is why I have no problems with the computers...

They take all the opinions and perceptions about a team out, theres 0 politics behind their rankings.


The computers dont know Les Miles is insane, and the human pollsters exxagerate the hell out of it.

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Do the computer polls intrinsically rank BCS schools as tougher opponents than non-BCS schools or does it just work out this way from records and opponent records alone?

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By the end of the year it's all about teams records and how they matched up. That ultimately favors BCS teams because their conferences are stronger, but it's not really factored in.

Wow...Looks just like the BCS Countdown Show, I watched Sunday...

Like identical.

I took this from a thread on Rivals lol



Originally posted by sabanist:
Sorry, officially bama is better than lsu, i havent seen one poll with lsu ranked ahead of bama
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Guess you haven't looked at the projected computer polls then...

( wish rivals allowed table tags... )
1 LSU 0.91
2 Oklahoma 0.9
3 Boise State 0.89
4 TCU 0.86
5 Auburn 0.73
6 Oregon 0.68
7 Michigan State 0.66
8 Nebraska 0.62
9 Missouri 0.5
10 Ohio State 0.46
11 Alabama 0.46
12 Nevada 0.46
13 South Carolina 0.45
14 Stanford 0.45
15 Arizona 0.42
16 Oklahoma State 0.33
17 Air Force 0.3
18 Oregon State 0.29
19 Utah 0.25
20 Florida State 0.23
21 Kansas State 0.18
22 Michigan 0.14
23 California 0.06
24 Florida 0.05
25 NC State 0.04
26 West Virginia 0.02
27 Texas 0.02
28 Arkansas 0.01
29 Iowa 0.01
30 Wisconsin 0
31 Miami (FL) 0
32 Northwestern 0
33 Virginia Tech 0
34 Mississippi State 0
35 Maryland 0
36 Syracuse 0
37 Georgia Tech 0
38 Illinois 0
39 Baylor 0
40 UTEP 0
41 UCLA 0

Link: BCS Guru's projections
Only fools complain about having a 2 loss champion when their team had as many losses or more.