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re: OFFICIAL BCS THREAD - LSU #6

Posted on 10/17/10 at 7:43 pm to
Posted by LSUHSV
Huntsville, AL
Member since Oct 2005
2180 posts
Posted on 10/17/10 at 7:43 pm to
This show is bull????????????????
Posted by guttata
prairieville
Member since Feb 2006
22598 posts
Posted on 10/17/10 at 7:45 pm to
Does all this really matter right now? I believe it will matter alot more after he Bama game. If LSU doesn't win this week, it doesn't really matter at all.
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 10/17/10 at 7:48 pm to
quote:

Does all this really matter right now? I believe it will matter alot more after he Bama game. If LSU doesn't win this week, it doesn't really matter at all.


It is fun to talk about and hope. That is all that really matters with college football. If I waited to the end of the season and think about a national championship, football would be a lot less fun.
Posted by Bel Air Tiger
Los Angeles
Member since Mar 2007
2458 posts
Posted on 10/17/10 at 7:52 pm to
wanted someone to say if Boise State or TCU played in the SEC, big 12 or either 10, what their records might be

Posted by GeismarGeauxer
Geismar
Member since Dec 2009
5242 posts
Posted on 10/17/10 at 7:59 pm to
Why can't we get the actual bcs rankings on op since this is the only stickied bcs thread? The complete 1 with all the computer polls used would be best
Posted by GeismarGeauxer
Geismar
Member since Dec 2009
5242 posts
Posted on 10/17/10 at 8:02 pm to
Posted by GeismarGeauxer
Geismar
Member since Dec 2009
5242 posts
Posted on 10/17/10 at 8:04 pm to
Why did we drop from 1 overall in computer to 2? Where's the analysis of that?
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 10/17/10 at 8:06 pm to
quote:

Where's the analysis of that?


The teams behind us played tougher teams than McNeese State on Saturday
Posted by WylieTiger
Member since Nov 2006
14338 posts
Posted on 10/17/10 at 8:22 pm to
Surprised at Mizzou's BCS ranking. They are getting some love from the cpus despite their Coach and Harris rankings.
Posted by TigerFan55555
Tomball, TX
Member since Nov 2008
9827 posts
Posted on 10/17/10 at 8:26 pm to
OK has wins over Cinncy, Miami, and who?

nevermind....fla st...cinncy, Texas...

yeah...not bad...good wins...
This post was edited on 10/17/10 at 8:28 pm
Posted by ByteMe
Member since Sep 2003
22356 posts
Posted on 10/17/10 at 9:03 pm to
quote:

Is it better for LSU to be under Auburn next week for a better ranking if LSU beats them next week?
This is what I have based off of last weeks prelim mock poll and SoS.
I do not believe Oklahoma will be ranked #1 tonight in the BCS poll. It will be either Auburn or LSU 1 or 2 with Bama in at 5. Oregon and Oklahoma at 3 and 4 and Boise St 6 and TCU 7 Ohio St 8 Mizzu at 9 and Iowa at 10.

BCS
1. Auburn
2. LSU
3. Oregon
4. Oklahoma
5. Alabama
6. Boise St
7. TCU
8. Ohio St
9. Mizzu
10. Iowa

That is mine and I am basing it on SoS so far this year. That is why I am giving the nod to Auburn as #1 but not by much because of the Coaches poll giving them a higher rank in their poll.



You were close.
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 10/17/10 at 9:06 pm to
quote:

You were close.


He nailed it
Posted by TheLoupGarou
Benton, LA
Member since Oct 2010
1250 posts
Posted on 10/17/10 at 9:41 pm to
Thanks, Matt,
I appreciate your great intellectualization of this process....reading your posts is a learning experience.
LSU just needs to keep on winning and the five above them need to take at least one loss!
It will all work out in the end.
Posted by evansky
Member since Nov 2009
837 posts
Posted on 10/17/10 at 10:21 pm to
Computers didn't help us:

Coaches 6 + Harris 6 + Computer 2 = BCS 6
Posted by Ramah59
Ramah
Member since Aug 2008
839 posts
Posted on 10/17/10 at 11:29 pm to
Great work, Matt ...

quote:

6. LSU. Playing McNeese (and struggling) should have little effect on LSU's current or future ranking. Beat AU and they shoot up to #3 or better.


Matt, I'm looking at LSU's computer ... .94

We're solid as a f-ing rock here ... And I know Oklahoma is going to lose ... Giving us the highest Computer if we run the Table ... Your thoughts

1. Oklahoma 6-0 4 2486 .8723 3 1334 .9044 .98 .3267 --
2. Oregon 6-0 NR - - NR - - .71 .2367 --
3. Boise St. 6-0 NR - - NR - - .78 .2600 --
4. Auburn 7-0 NR - - NR - - .90 .3000 --
5. TCU 7-0 NR - - NR - - .80 .2667 --
6. LSU 7-0 NR - - NR - - .94 .3133 --
7. Michigan St. 7-0 8 1964 .6891 8 1037 .7031 .89 .2967 --
8. Alabama 6-1 NR - - NR - - .52 .1733 --



P.S. ... Jerry Palm has these words of wisdom regarding LSU's chances ... and I quote

Words from Jerry Palm: LSU and Auburn play Saturday. “I would be shocked if the winner didn’t jump Boise next week in the polls,” Palm said. And if the winner jumps the Broncos in the polls, it’s a lock to jump them in the BCS standings.

In fact, if one of the SEC’s Tigers goes 13-0, it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to see that team in the BCS title game no matter what Oklahoma and Oregon do.


That's what I thought ... LSU runs the table and Boise State, OU, TCU, Oregon and all the rest get to eat a shite sandwich and watch the SEC rule
This post was edited on 10/18/10 at 3:51 am
Posted by Jcorye1
Tom Brady = GoAT
Member since Dec 2007
76373 posts
Posted on 10/18/10 at 12:26 am to
Thanks for the projections, and the sites. I've always wondered how they got their numbers, and I had to dust off the ol' statistics book
Posted by baytiger
Boston
Member since Dec 2007
46978 posts
Posted on 10/18/10 at 3:04 am to
What does your simulated Colley look like next week with an Oklahoma win and an LSU win (plus all the other games)?

the site puts Oklahoma with a rating over 1... and I think that's the earliest in the season I've ever seen one of those.

eta: a look at the past polls shows that it would, indeed, be the fastest any team has ever gotten to 1
This post was edited on 10/18/10 at 3:08 am
Posted by Cuz413
Member since Nov 2007
9826 posts
Posted on 10/18/10 at 4:55 am to
It's a shame that in order for LSU or AU to make the title game they would have to go undefeated. It's BS that LSU beats two top 25 teams OOC (one at a neutral site) and play two top 25 teams, and a top 5 team on the road. And all ESPN could talk about was Boise.

End rant.
Posted by TRIAN73
BAY ST. LOUIS, MS
Member since Sep 2004
281 posts
Posted on 10/18/10 at 8:49 am to
The computers like the Tigers and have us with an avg computer rank of #2. If we beat Auburn, we should move to #4 or higher in the Harris Poll and the USA Today poll and our computer avg will stay at #2 if not #1. The BCS rankings with those numbers should put at as #3 or higher.
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
29043 posts
Posted on 10/18/10 at 10:26 am to
quote:

lsumatt

Would you be interested in another computer poll?

I have been simulating games and doing rankings for a few years. Basically after computing each team's offensive and defensive ratings, I then simulate each week's games to find probability of victory. To rank the teams, I simulate games between each team and an imaginary team with average ratings to create power ranks. I think this is similar to yours, in that I next compute "earned ranks" based on who each team beat and lost to.

Let me know if you'd like to see them.
<--@gmail
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