No planet where punting from the 20 with 8:00 left down 11 is considered “old school”

I think you have to go for it there. That’s the game even if you punt the ball.

You have a better chance of converting a 4th and 10 in that spot than:

1. getting a stop
2. scoring a TD
3. Getting the onside kick or getting another stop
4. Scoring another TD
5. Get the 2-point conversion.

We’ll never know, but I really don’t think the defense was going to get another stop, and everything was already deflated at that point.

Yeah but they also got lucky with the Bears fumbling and giving it back to them.

Bama had been playing turnover free all game. I guess you never know what can happen, but IMO, I feel like you still have better odds of converting 4th and 10 as opposed to hoping something like that happens.

Also consider
Our punter is terrible.
Special team coverage is bad and had already given a huge return up.

2nd half the defense had no answers to anything bama was doing, they scored with ease.

Tough spot, easy to criticize but i also felt like he had to go for it.

quote:

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That’s the game even if you punt the ball.

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But its really not. You had 2 timeouts. It was still a 11 point game. Before that you had gotten 3 3 and outs each one only lasting a minute or so. You punt the ball and get a stop you most likely get the ball back with ~6 minutes or so to work with. Probably no timeouts but still time on the clock to score quickly, and either try an onside kick or kickoff and hope to get one more stop.

Instead, they roll the dice on a low-percentage 4th down play when the offense/Sam was obviously rattled, give bama the ball back on the 25-yard line and give them the opportunity to take shots to end the game completely.

Lane made a terrible decision and what's even more frustrating is him doubling down on it after the game. I used an NFL analytics model and run after run it gives the edge to punting in that situation and thats without taking into account the 2 timeouts. Ik college analytics is slightly different, but whatever analytics model they use I refuse to believe that it was as cut and dry as Kiffin made it out to be and think that his own frustrated impacted that decision

You very well may not get a stop if we punt youre right. We'll never know

Again, my issue is more of Kiffin coming out and saying "the analytics say to go for it there. Thats the new way to call games" when I strongly believe that thats not the case and multiple analytic models and actual results from other games says that that wasnt the correct play analytically. If he wants to come out and say "hey look i didnt think we would have enough time to punt and do what we needed to do. It didnt work out" then fine, but dont hide behind analytics and talk as though anyone that questions it is out of touch with modern football

I'm sure he was also trying to save face in that conference by saying that too. I agree that he should've just said "This is what I thought in that situation given how the game was playing, etc."

Would've looked a lot better.

Bad decision by Lane.

With 8 minutes left:

- 3-4 minutes long drive by Bama. Punt.
- 2 minute drill by LSU (TD or FG)
- key drive by Bama, here you burn timeouts and use 2 minutes pause. Punt or they win it here.
- 1 minute long drive by LSU.

This is possible considering a field goal drive is shorter. Also any player running out of bounds, incomplete pass and ilegal movement by Bama plays in your side. This was very doable, happens all the time.
Lane picked the “let’s end it here if we don’t get it” easy option.

quote:

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You have a better chance of converting a 4th and 10 in that spot than:

1. getting a stop
2. scoring a TD
3. Getting the onside kick or getting another stop
4. Scoring another TD
5. Get the 2-point conversion.

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Your’s is an invalid comparison because getting the first doesn’t tie the game. However, I think you are correct in your point, that the odds of winning the game are about the same whether he went for it or punted.

A worse decision was going for fourth and four at the six instead of taking the automatic three points. The chances of converting that fourth and four was probably 1 in 3 at that point on the field. The value of kicking the FG was about .99 times 3 or 2.97. The value of going for it was about .33 times 7, or 2.31. And that assumes that you get the TD after making the first down, so it’s a little less than that.

Neither decision was very impactful, however. We like to find things to bitch about, but the reason we lost the game is that we could not score TDs in the red zone. That wasn’t going to be fixed by making different decisions there.

It’s just my opinion is all. So I’m not going to sewer Kiffin for going for it.

I will say I don’t hate the aggressive nature as he was going for the win. Unfortunately, most or all of the decisions turned out very poorly.

I do agree on the FG from the 6 or 9? He should’ve taken the points there.