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re: NATIONAL TITLE HOPES - Updated page 1

Posted on 11/7/10 at 8:29 am to
Posted by ScoopAndScore
baton rouge
Member since Oct 2008
12281 posts
Posted on 11/7/10 at 8:29 am to
quote:

you should though

Impossible to say that when conferences use different methods to determine champion. Either all the majors need a conf champ game or none should have it. Until it's the same, no way you can say it should be one way or another. And btw, LSU will win a share of the SEC West if they win out.
Posted by LSURulzSEC
Lake Charles via Oakdale
Member since Aug 2004
79119 posts
Posted on 11/7/10 at 8:30 am to
Posted by Tigerobsession
baton rouge, LA
Member since Sep 2004
631 posts
Posted on 11/7/10 at 8:45 am to
quote:

quote: If Bama finishes 10-2 also or the East team upset AU, LSU could be left in the cold. This is the nightmare scenario. 9-3 Florida upsets Auburn and #4 ranked, 11-1 LSU heads back to the fricking Cap One Bowl again.


At 11-1...if LSU is number 4 in the BCS, they would be am automatic qualifier for the BCS. Matt was saying if both LSU and Bama are 10-2, we might get left out.
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 11/7/10 at 8:49 am to
Yeah, but he is saying that Florida beats 12-0 AU and AU stays above 11-1 LSU. That would push us out of the BCS and we would go to the Cap one.

Yes, that would suck.
Posted by ScoopAndScore
baton rouge
Member since Oct 2008
12281 posts
Posted on 11/7/10 at 8:50 am to
quote:

he is saying that Florida beats 12-0 AU and AU stays above 11-1 LSU

you think AU would stay above LSU if their one loss is in the SEC champ game?
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 11/7/10 at 8:52 am to
no definite, but probably. Team A is 12-1 and beat 11-1 Team B. Who do you rank higher? AU should be higher in the computers at that point too.
Posted by CaseyMc2
Louisiana Native
Member since Feb 2009
4092 posts
Posted on 11/7/10 at 8:54 am to
How does LSU not represent the SEC in the Sugar Bowl with 1 loss over anAuburn team with 2 losses if they loose to Bama and then loose the SEC CG?

Doesn't the Sugar Bowl have the choice of picking the highest ranked team at season's end to play whoever in the Sugar Bowl?

Now with those questions I believe LSU will play in the Sugar Bowl against whowever if LSU wins out. The LSU #3 ranked team will be in the highest BCS Non-CG they may even play in the BCS CG if one of those 2 Non-BCS teams do not get the votes the final week. LSU has to take care of business the next 3 weeks.

This week it will be:
1. Oregon
2. Auburn
3. TCU
4. Boise St
5. LSU
6. Nebraska
7. Stanford
8. Michigan St
9. Iowa
10. Ohio St.
11. Arizona

Don't be surprised if Stanford even jumps LSU because of the Human polls they like Stanford, Michigan St and Nebraska over LSU. I believe this year it will be a split just like back in 2003 with LSU BCS and USC AP. Because of ESPN not agreeing with the BCS.
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 11/7/10 at 8:56 am to
quote:

How does LSU not represent the SEC in the Sugar Bowl with 1 loss over anAuburn team with 2 losses if they loose to Bama and then loose the SEC CG?


The discussion was a 1-loss AU not a 2 loss AU. And neither would represent the SEC in your scenario. A team from the East...you know the SEC Champ would play in the Sugar Bowl
Posted by Indiana Tiger
Member since Feb 2005
4099 posts
Posted on 11/7/10 at 9:05 am to
quote:


YOU DO NOT HAVE TO WIN YOUR CONFERENCE TO PLAY FOR A NC


you should though

One caveat...It's okay as long as your conference champion plays. This is the justification for wildcard teams in larger playoff formats. With only 2 teams, there would be a lot of pressure not to do it, but there are scenarios where it would be the best option and it should be allowed.
Posted by blueboy
Member since Apr 2006
62730 posts
Posted on 11/7/10 at 9:12 am to
So if LSU and AU win out, and AU loses to an 3-loss East team, LSU wouldn't move ahead of them?

I know we lose the head to head, but I didn't think the BCS figured that, and a loss to a one-loss AU was better than a loss to a 3-loss East team. Theoretically, that should be logical, right?
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 11/7/10 at 9:20 am to
quote:

I know we lose the head to head, but I didn't think the BCS figured that, and a loss to a one-loss AU was better than a loss to a 3-loss East team. Theoretically, that should be logical, right?


human voters probably give the edge to AU since they beat LSU head to head. They just do. The computers probably see that AU played a slightly tougher schedule. I am at least 75% sure AU stays above LSU. Maybe of they got blown out, but even then
Posted by blueboy
Member since Apr 2006
62730 posts
Posted on 11/7/10 at 9:23 am to
quote:

human voters probably give the edge to AU since they beat LSU head to head

Figured.
quote:

The computers probably see that AU played a slightly tougher schedule

Good point.
quote:

Maybe of they got blown out, but even then

Well, that's what got me thinking about it. It would be very similar to 2003, and I thought they tweaked the system to avoid that situation in the future - because USC got left out.

But yeah, though I think the raw numbers would be in our favor, the humans would likely stop us. Maybe the machines are sophisticated enough to resist us now.

kill the humans. kill the humans.
This post was edited on 11/7/10 at 9:29 am
Posted by JAMO
Nashville, TN
Member since Dec 2007
99 posts
Posted on 11/7/10 at 9:31 am to
Matt,

I know slackster laid out the scenario of an LSU/Auburn national championship game. I know this is very unlikely. Could you comment on the likelihood of it after this past weekend's results?

Thanks!
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 11/7/10 at 9:32 am to
That falls under category 2. I think Oregon, TCU, Nebraska, and Boise all have to lose.
Posted by TigerBull
VP/BR/LC
Member since Oct 2007
1466 posts
Posted on 11/7/10 at 9:36 am to
Posted by c on z
Zamunda
Member since Mar 2009
130292 posts
Posted on 11/7/10 at 9:39 am to
I am glad that we can still discuss this type of stuff this week.
This post was edited on 11/7/10 at 9:40 am
Posted by RockChalkTiger
A Little Bit South of Saskatoon
Member since May 2009
11005 posts
Posted on 11/7/10 at 9:48 am to
quote:

LSU will play in the Sugar Bowl


1990s Baseball NCs: 91, 93, 96, 97, 00
2000s Sugar Bowls: 01, 03, 06, 07, 10.

It's in the numbers. Get your tickets now.
Posted by White Tiger
Dallas
Member since Jul 2007
15101 posts
Posted on 11/7/10 at 10:03 am to
I hear you about not winning one's conference, Matt, but could you provide a reference. I remember a few years back when UGA made a claim to be in the BCSCG but were denied because they had not won the SEC. BTW this was after OU got into the game after losing its Big XII CG.

Can you elaborate?
Posted by White Tiger
Dallas
Member since Jul 2007
15101 posts
Posted on 11/7/10 at 10:07 am to
quote:

Some voters may penalize LSU for "near losses" when think hard and long about LSU vs. TCU on that last ballot.


Robert Smith of ESPN did exactly that yesterday declaiming that LSU's 5- SEC record should be 4-2 because of the Tenn game. Utter nonsense. Then why not decide any number of games based on fantasy outcomes...

The BCS is a manipulated promotion IMHO.
Posted by ItNeverRains
Offugeaux
Member since Oct 2007
28166 posts
Posted on 11/7/10 at 10:08 am to
quote:

Yes, because Boise has a history of getting stomped in BCS bowls. Idiot


I don't think anyone questions Boise in a game a month after the season ends. I think the question is the body of work which allowed them to play in that game a month after the season ends.
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