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Started By
Message
LSUs Net went from 88 to 85.
Posted on 2/22/24 at 9:31 am
Posted on 2/22/24 at 9:31 am
What a joke. That Nicholls loss is brutal. Miss State is another quad 1 opportunity. Just try to get close to 70 before the SEC tourney, and make the committee make a decision.
12
Posted on 2/22/24 at 9:32 am to Bonkers119
I mean we still have a 14-12 record
It’s more than just Q1 wins & a Q4 loss though
It’s more than just Q1 wins & a Q4 loss though
Posted on 2/22/24 at 9:33 am to Bonkers119
quote:
That Nicholls loss is brutal.
This is destroying our NET, not that we'd be 65 or something otherwise, but that loss is absolutely killer in something like the NET. They are a pretty bad team and losing to them on our home floor probably drops our NET by a solid 6-10 spots I imagine.
Posted on 2/22/24 at 9:34 am to thunderbird1100
Miss state lost to Southern & they’re still 36 in NET.
It’s not the loss to Nicholls
It’s not the loss to Nicholls
Posted on 2/22/24 at 9:35 am to JimTiger72
quote:
Miss state lost to Southern & they’re still 36 in NET.
MSU has a way better overall resume than us, its not close
quote:
It’s not the loss to Nicholls
I'm saying the loss to Nicholls is costing us probably 6-10 spots in the NET which is probably pretty accurate. Also, Nicholls is even a bit lower than Southern is in the NET. It wasnt even a Quad 4 loss for MSU. We piled up 8 Quad 4 games on our schedule which isnt good and really not good we lost 1 of them. MSU is 5-0 against Quad 4.
This post was edited on 2/22/24 at 9:40 am
Posted on 2/22/24 at 9:38 am to Bonkers119
Miss St is 36
S. Carolina is 57
A&M is 44
Kentucky is 24
Surely if we beat State the NET will slide upward into "bubble talk" territory. If not, then the stench of that Nicholls loss will prove to be overpowering
S. Carolina is 57
A&M is 44
Kentucky is 24
Surely if we beat State the NET will slide upward into "bubble talk" territory. If not, then the stench of that Nicholls loss will prove to be overpowering
Posted on 2/22/24 at 9:40 am to Bonkers119
We need to win out to even have a thought about a postseason that doesn’t include the NIT, and then at least win one SEC tournament game.
I’ll worry about our NET at the end of the regular season.
I’ll worry about our NET at the end of the regular season.
Posted on 2/22/24 at 9:41 am to tarzana
quote:
Surely if we beat State the NET will slide upward into "bubble talk" territory. If not, then the stench of that Nicholls loss will prove to be overpowering
We are nowhere near NCAAT and wont be regardless of how we finish. It's winning the SECT or bust there because the NET is just way too low.
Even if we go 4-1 to finish the schedule, finishing 10-8 and we win say 2 SECT games. We're talking about us in the NIT and nowhere near the NCAAT. Our NET would probably be low 70s/high 60s at that point. Thats not bubble territory still. We could make things somewhat interesting perhaps if we go 5-0 to close out the season and finish 11-7, but I am trying to be somewhat realistic.
This post was edited on 2/22/24 at 9:42 am
Posted on 2/22/24 at 9:41 am to JimTiger72
I guess Villanova is the the closest comparison at 15-11. They are at 33 without a Q4 loss
They’re also 9-8 in Q1/2 games while LSU is 6-10
#45 Cincinnati is 16-10
#47 Utah is 16-10
They’re also 9-8 in Q1/2 games while LSU is 6-10
#45 Cincinnati is 16-10
#47 Utah is 16-10
This post was edited on 2/22/24 at 9:43 am
Posted on 2/22/24 at 9:46 am to Bonkers119
quote:
That Nicholls loss is brutal.
Yes
and taking an arse kicking from a bad Syracuse team have probably cost lsu 10-12 ish NET points.
Plus barely beating some of those Q4 teams hurts the NET as well
Posted on 2/22/24 at 9:51 am to Bonkers119
Winning those close ones vs UGA and UF would have us in the 60’s right now id bet
Posted on 2/22/24 at 9:52 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
I'm saying the loss to Nicholls is costing us probably 6-10 spots in the NET which is probably pretty accurate.
Probably so.
14-12 Washington is at 70
14-13 Maryland is 71
Posted on 2/22/24 at 9:53 am to Bonkers119
That is wild and we have 2 Quad 1 wins this week and 4 total. Only Am at 6 and tenner at 5 have equal or more. Bama has 3 and Auburn 2 and they are top 8. I am not sure about the formula, but AM is 30 points higher than us with similar records and 1 more Quad 1 win. Indiana St. is at 31 with 1-3 Quad 1 wins and 1 Quad 4 loss. I guess keep winning and things will change.
Posted on 2/22/24 at 9:53 am to Pnels08
No way they can look at scores.
Posted on 2/22/24 at 9:54 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
MSU has a way better overall resume than us, its not close
I wouldn't go so far as to say "way better". There SOS is 51. LSU's is 14. Their non-conf. SOS is 225. LSU is 148. They have 7 Q1/2 wins. So does LSU. In true road games they are 1-6 (that one being over Missouri). LSU is 2-6 in such games. The have just as many Q3/4 losses as LSU (2).
The separating factor though is two-fold:
1. They are 6-0 in neutral site games, including wins over Washington St. and Northwestern. LSU is 2-2 in those games. Wins away from home are GOLD in the NET ratings because they count for more.
2. Their predictive metrics are MUCH higher than LSU's. That is factored into the NET. For context, they are the antithesis of South Carolina. The analytical data says they are better than what their record shows (opposite for USC). Their KenPom rating is 33. LSU's is 75.
The loss to Nichols isn't a killer for LSU.
Good news though. Mississippi St. will be in the PMAC on Saturday. It will also be LSU's last chance this year for a quality win. Simply getting that win will be great. But if you want to see an even bigger jump in the NET it would behoove LSU to dominate MSU.
Posted on 2/22/24 at 9:55 am to OSTiger77
quote:
No way they can look at scores.
I dont think so, but they do take account for “scoring margin” which is compiled from all scores
This post was edited on 2/22/24 at 9:56 am
Posted on 2/22/24 at 9:55 am to tarzana
quote:
If not, then the stench of that Nicholls loss will prove to be overpowering
Which would mean that the NET is a retarded system of measurement. I'm not saying we're world beaters or anything but we also have 3 conference wins against ranked teams (one of which was on the road) this season and kicked the crap out of A&M on the road. One bad loss in the 3rd game of a 30+ game season should not hold that much weight.
This post was edited on 2/22/24 at 9:56 am
Posted on 2/22/24 at 9:59 am to Alt26
quote:
But if you want to see an even bigger jump in the NET it would behoove LSU to dominate MSU.
This is one our biggest weaknesses. Among our 6 Q1/2 wins, only 1 was in a double digit type fasion (68-53 @ A&M). Everything else was relatively close.
MSU has 4 (almost 5) double digit wins over Q1/Q2 teams and that helps a lot. They also have 4 more double digit wins over Q3 teams, where as we have 1.
IT's a big difference there and part of the reason they are way higher up in the NET than us when they start to look at the efficiencies like they do in the NET calc.
Posted on 2/22/24 at 10:01 am to Bonkers119
It’s hard to believe that a loss to Nicholls in November could ruin our NCAAT hopes.
Posted on 2/22/24 at 10:05 am to St Jean The Baptiste
22-12 Arizona St
22-11 Pitt
Both got an at large bid in tourney last year with a Q4 loss. 66 & 67 in NET
22-11 Pitt
Both got an at large bid in tourney last year with a Q4 loss. 66 & 67 in NET
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