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re: LSU vs the rest of the top 25
Posted on 10/27/26 at 9:31 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
Posted on 10/27/26 at 9:31 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
Are you sure there’s no bias in your model?
zero bias.
My model has 2019 LSU rated behind Ohio St that year...
This post was edited on 10/27/26 at 9:32 am
Posted on 10/27/26 at 9:37 am to LSBoosie
quote:
Sometimes it’s right, sometimes it way off.
It closely resembles Vegas. If you want to know what a hypothetical Vegas spread would be on any given matchup, my model can tell you. Some people find that useless, some find it interesting. On average, Vegas spreads are +- 11.5 points off. My model is about the same. Football scores are hard to predict.
It's not a bible.
This post was edited on 10/27/26 at 9:40 am
Posted on 10/27/26 at 9:49 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
Power rankings and match up rankings can be different.
Just because a team is power ranked as a 25pt favorite over the average football team (how most power rankings work), doesn't mean the computer models believe that team would be favored over a different team with a 23pt favorite power ranking.
The marchup between those two teams may favore the team that isnt quite as good overall because the models say this team can't exploit x weakness on this team but the other team is able to exploit y weakness on that team.
Just because a team is power ranked as a 25pt favorite over the average football team (how most power rankings work), doesn't mean the computer models believe that team would be favored over a different team with a 23pt favorite power ranking.
The marchup between those two teams may favore the team that isnt quite as good overall because the models say this team can't exploit x weakness on this team but the other team is able to exploit y weakness on that team.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 10:08 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
Yes LSU lost those 2 games. The opponents didn't "win". There is a difference and no doubt in my mind we play OM or KY again we beat them by 10+. If you watch as much college ball as I do, and many of you do , LSU is one of the most balanced teams in the country right now sans Miami who hasn't played anyone. And if everyone can get healthy during the bye I believe we run the table. TX is struggling on offense. Bama is struggling on offense. Tenn is struggling on offense. If we take care of the ball and can run the ball and can stop the run, we can beat anyone.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 10:24 am to MilkJug
quote:
It closely resembles Vegas. If you want to know what a hypothetical Vegas spread would be on any given matchup, my model can tell you. Some people find that useless, some find it interesting. On average, Vegas spreads are +- 11.5 points off. My model is about the same. Football scores are hard to predict.
It's not a bible.
Right. Which is why I said I don’t take anything from it. And it’s why I’d probably refer to Vegas lines over whatever your model is. Not a shot at you, I just don’t find much value in it, compared to what I could already find before you started posting your model.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 10:28 am to LSBoosie
quote:
Right. Which is why I said I don’t take anything from it. And it’s why I’d probably refer to Vegas lines over whatever your model is. Not a shot at you, I just don’t find much value in it, compared to what I could already find before you started posting your model.
Where would you find an LSU v Notre Dame line right now?
My model says LSU -3 on a neutral field.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 10:34 am to MilkJug
quote:
Don't take this literally. This is a probabilistic model. As noted on the graphic, LSU would be expected to win 17.5 of these games - not all of them. They would just be favored in all of them.
Does it assume neutral field, and do you have a standard adjustment for home field? Just looking to get your model's win probabilites for remaining game. I like math lol but totally understand the games have to be played.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 11:00 am to MilkJug
quote:
Where would you find an LSU v Notre Dame line right now?
My model says LSU -3 on a neutral field.
You model had varied from Vegas lines by 5, 2, 5, 4.5, 5.5, -3.5 if you are just looking at LSU games. Those aren’t small numbers in terms of sports betting. That means the LSU -3 in your model could actually end up being ND -2 in the eyes of Vegas.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 11:12 am to BigPapiDoesItAgain
Posted on 10/27/26 at 11:12 am to guttata
quote:
LSU has played two top 25 teams and lost both of them.
Don't bring your facts into our feelings...
Posted on 10/27/26 at 11:14 am to LSBoosie
quote:
You model had varied from Vegas lines by 5, 2, 5, 4.5, 5.5, -3.5 if you are just looking at LSU games. Those aren’t small numbers in terms of sports betting. That means the LSU -3 in your model could actually end up being ND -2 in the eyes of Vegas.
Generally, how this plays out is the larger the margin(spread), the larger the variance between my model and Vegas. In games with low spreads, typically, the variance is very low.
Some games the model does disagree with Vegas on the winner - sometimes my model is correct, sometimes Vegas is correct.
This post was edited on 10/27/26 at 11:21 am
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