One of the biggest games of the year is here. I didn't know if South or someone else wanted to do a preview, so I'm going to go ahead and do it. Feel free to add any content as anyone sees fit.

Projected Lineups
Kentucky:
F JR Marcus Lee 6'9 224 9.1ppg 7.2rpg 2.0bpg
F SR Alex Pythress 6'8 230 9.4ppg 7.3rpg
G FR Isaiah Briscoe 6'3 202 11.0ppg 5.5rpg 3.1apg
G FR Jamal Murray 6'5 207 16.8ppg 4.6 ppg 2.8 apg
G SO Tyler Ulis 5'9 160 13.4ppg 5.9apg

LSU:
F Craig Victor
F Ben Simmons
G Keith Hornsby
G Antonio Blakeney
G Tim Quarterman

About Kentucky

This Kentucky team is far far different than Kentucky teams of old. They do not have multiple 7 footers inside that will just wreak havoc. They are driven heavily by guards. Jamal Murray can absolutely stroke, Tyler Ulis is one of the best PG's in the country, and Isaiah Briscoe was a 5-star highly recruited player coming out. After that, they use a mixture of 4 different big men to keep each fresh. All can play, but none are special players right now. The Center, Labisierre, who was supposed to challenge for the #1 overall selection, has been benched recently in favor of Marcus Lee.

Kentucky's Schedule

Not really a typical UK schedule. They have a signature win against Duke on a neutral court in Chicago. Then the rest of their non conference they played 4 Power 5 teams: at UCLA, Ohio State in New York, Arizona State at home, and Louisville at home. They lost to UCLA who may struggle to get into the tourney, and Ohio State who will be a bubble team.

Offensively
Stats:
PPG: 78.8 (87th nationally)
RPG: 39.8 (60th nationally)
APG: 14.0 (149th nationally)

On offense, UK is still the same team. They aren't a great offensive team, and they don't have many shooters. Jamal Murray has shot 89 3-pointers, Ulis has shot 59, then the only other player to have attempted more than 20 is backup Forward Derek Willis who has shot 31. Murray can stroke at 38%, but he is an incredible shooter...if he is open, it is going in. But then after than, Willis shoots 35.5%, Ulis shoots 28.8%, and it gets uglier and uglier. Long story short, MAKE THEM SHOOTERS.

Also, despite ranking 60th in total rebounds, UK is 15th in offensive rebounds. An extremely large part of their game is having 2-3 people crashing the boards and looking for tips and loose balls. On the season, Marcus Less has 94 total rebounds. 50 defensive, 44 offensive. That is a staggering number. Poythress is the next biggest threat with over 30 offensive rebounds.

Lastly, their offense is run by Ulis. The kid is a jitterbug who is just simply a stud. Very small in stature, but he gets in the lane and has excellent court vision. He may be the best true point guard we see all season.

Defensively
Stats
PPG: 65.8 (73rd nationally)
FG%: 40.2% (76th nationally)
TO's: 14.3 (101st nationally)
BPG: 5.8 (14th nationally)
SPG: 7.0 (110th nationally)

Calipari is gonna Calipari. He will play in your face, super tough man to man, and force people to drive the basketball. As you can see, they don't have the length as years past, but still can block shots. Lee is averaging 2 blocks and Labissiere is averaging 1.8. They don't get a lot of steals or force a ton of turnovers, but they play good, solid defense.

Keys to the Game

There are so many keys in this one, where to begin? Personally, I think Tim Quarterman has to show up. Quarterman does not need to play tight on Ulis. He needs to force the 5'9 Ulis to shoot over him, or when Ulis drives, use his length to pressure his shot. Also, does the 5'9 Ulis guard TQ? If so, Quarterman has to be able to attack.

Who guards Murray? Most here would say Hornsby...but Murray runs off double and triple screens sometimes. Think of how JJ Redick used to. He will also run all over the court. As much of a stud as Keith is, we don't want him absolutely exhausted on offense. For that reason, I think Blakeney guards Murray. Earlier in the season, we played Oral Roberts who had a player named Emegano. Emegano came into the game averaging 23.3, and we put Blakeney on him. Well, AB played terrific D, and I think they did that as a test for the likes of Murray. Blakeney's offensive game has been struggling, but his defensive game really has been excellent lately.

Ben Simmons. What will Kentucky do? It's pretty safe to say that Poythress will match up on Ben. Poythress only gives up a couple of inches, and he's just as thick as Ben and he's also a great athlete. With that said, if Ben Simmons decides to play like he did against Vandy, Poythress won't be playing long. So, does UK double team him? It's a bit difficult, nearly impossible, to double team a player that is at the top of the key. People have wanted Ben in the post all year, and that's great, but everyone will automatically double him to get the ball out of his hands. Do we want that? Of course not. Players like Ben Simmons are cheat codes. He defies the rules of basketball. You're not supposed to have someone that big, that agile, that gifted. If Ben continues to show up, not many people can stop him.

Craig Victor, Epps, Elbert/Darcy vs the Kentucky big men. This is where LSU runs into significant trouble. UK's backup guards are average at best. Solid role players who do what they're asked, don't screw up, and play tough D. The bigs can be a problem, though. I feel good about Victor matching up against Lee. Lee is a scrap and garbage point player, so I think he can hold his own...and he has to. Because off the bench they have Willis who is very versatile and has a very good skill set for a 6'9 player, and Labissiere who many thought (and still think) he is a top 5 pick. Our big men have to be locked in, aggressive, and not get cheap and silly fouls.

Prediction

LSU comes into this game with an enormous road win against Vandy. The game has seemed to do a 180 with how many view this team. LSU has only played 5 games with its full compliment of starters, and they're 4-1 in that span. The chemistry and effort seem to be building, and we still have not even seen the average of Time Quarterman or Antonio Blakeney. This team is relying on Simmons, Victor, and Hornsby to carry the load. In order to win this game, either TQ or AB will have to step up in some type of way.

In the end, I can't predict LSU to win because they've been to up and down. I'm worried about our big men in foul trouble, and our ability to stop the dribble drive. Kentucky is favored by 5, and with a few late FT's at the end, I think they get there.

UK 78
LSU 73

This post was edited on 1/4/16 at 4:20 pm