Projected Starters
Florida:
C John Egbunu 6'11 255 10.8ppg 7.0rpg 1.6bpg
F Dorian Finney-Smith 6'8 220 13.1ppg 7.6rpg
F Justin Leon or Devin Robinson: Robinson 2nd leading scorer at 11ppg
G KeVaughn Allen 6'2 183 10.7ppg
G Chris Chiozza 6'0 175 6.4ppg 3.4apg

LSU:
F Craig Victor
F Ben Simmons
G Keith Hornsby
G Antonio Blakeney
G Tim Quarterman

About Florida

Florida comes into the contest at 1-1 in the SEC and 9-5 overall. They had an extremely difficult OOC schedule that included games on a neutral court against #18 Purdue, @ #11 Miami, and @ former #1 Michigan State. All resulted in losses, but all were competitive games. Florida is a very deep team and will play roughly 9-10 players, and depending on how the game is going, that will dictate playing time. Currently 10 players average over 10 minutes per game.

Offensively
Stats:
PPG: 73.1 (188th nationally)
APG: 12.7 (234th nationally)
FG%: 41.6 (283rd nationally)
3%: 28.9 (334th nationally)
3PA: 318 (121st nationally)
PPS (Points per shot): 1.17 (293rd, comparison LSU is 1.33 and 63rd)
FT%: 62 (334th nationally)
FTA: 23.5 per game (93rd nationally)
Turnovers: 10.7 (25th nationally)

Ok, so...Florida is not good offensively. Anyone with half a brain can look at their numbers and realize, it's not pretty. However, UF is a very gritty team. They do not shoot it well, but they do a good job getting to the line. And although they don't shoot a high percentage, they do get some easy points from the line. Also, I would like to remind everyone that they've played some great defensive teams in Purdue and Michigan State (Literally those teams are #1 and #2 in FG% defense)...both on the road. So the role players will always shoot better at home.

Their best player hands down is Finney-Smith. He's been there for what seems like a decade. He leads their team in rebounds and points. He reminds me a lot of Victor, but he's a better ball handler and is better on the perimeter. KeVaughn Allen is a Freshman who lately has been balling hard. He dropped 32 a couple of games ago against Florida State. They have 2 good PG's in Chiozza and Hill. Chiozza wants to stay on the perimeter and run the offense and shoot 3's. Whereas Hill wants to get into the lane and absolutely NOT shoot 3's. LSU will need to keep in mind which PG is playing.

Egbunu underneath is a big Nigerian with very good athleticism and hustle He has a good offensive rebounding number, but is a bad FT shooter. Their other starter will be either Justin Leon or Devin Robinson. Robinson is a 6'8 200 pound guy that can shoot the 3 decently and slash. He's their 2nd leading scorer and 3rd leading rebounder. However, last couple of games Leon has started and quite honestly, I do not know why. Leon was a JUCO all-american who is 6'8 200, but so far at UF he is averaging 3 points and 1 rebound per game. Either way, there will be a size advantage for UF there.

Defensively
Stats:
PPG: 63.5 (26th nationally)
FG%: 38.2 (21st nationally)
3p%: 32.1 (98th nationally)
RPG: 42.4 (15th nationally)
BPG: 4.6 (75th nationally)
SPG: 7.6 (67th nationally)
Turnovers Forced: 13.8 (129th nationally)

As bad as Florida is on offense, it's that good on defense. From what I have seen, and some may know more than I, Florida plays just very tough man to man defense. I'm sure they've zoned some, but they seem to be primarily a man team. Florida has one of the best turnover margins in the country. Because of that, they are able to get back and set up their defense. They don't create a ton of turnovers or take a lot of chances. They prefer to contest shots and grab rebounds, which they are excellent at doing. Make no mistake, Florida thrives on defense defense defense.

Prediction:

As great as LSU's wins on the road against Vandy and at home against Kentucky were, they're still not out of the woods yet. Looking at about 10 different RPI's, Florida is somewhere in the 20's currently. A loss would not kill LSU, but a win on the road would be monumental. But likewise for Florida, after a blowout loss to Tennessee on the road, they cannot afford a home loss to LSU. So it is all about who will show up. Will Florida show up hungrier after getting blown out? Will LSU be less focused after a huge and emotional win? The bottom line is basically what we have said with every LSU game this year. At literally nearly every position but maybe one, LSU is better. LSU has the size, athleticism, and skill to win this game. But UF is playing at home and it's a very difficult place to play. UF will try and slow the game down to a crawl, and it will force LSU to execute in the half court...which we know is quite a predicament for LSU this year. It's very hard picking LSU games because it is impossible to know which Quarterman shows up, or if Simmons is fine with scoring 10 or if he wants to score 40, or if our players want to dive for loose balls and crush the defensive and offensive glass. Taking everything into consideration, I think Florida wins. Honestly, I don't view this as a MUST win for LSU, but I do for Florida. Florida is a bubble team at best, and they can't lose at home. If the game was at the PMAC I'd feel good, but the road after a huge win scares me.

UF - 70
LSU- 64

This post was edited on 1/9/16 at 2:55 pm