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Started By
Message
LSU +6.5 vs Bama Opening Line
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:31 pm
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:31 pm
20
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:33 pm to BradleyJ33
There's a reason why we play the games.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:34 pm to BradleyJ33
Good. Bulletin board material and added motivation.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:35 pm to BradleyJ33
In 3,2,1...Triggers Discussion on Las Vegas Oddsmakers Concepts-
The line is created to get people to bet on the game.
The line is created to get people to bet on the game.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:35 pm to BradleyJ33
We know.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:36 pm to The Truth 34
vegas aint dumb
they know what they are doing
they know what they are doing
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:37 pm to BradleyJ33
I just jumped all over that at my book. LSU +6.5 is high. That will drop as we get closer to the game.
Ole Miss beat their arse and Tenn damn near beat them last week. Both teams will play their best football and it will be a tight game, but that line is too high. There's value there for sure.
Ole Miss beat their arse and Tenn damn near beat them last week. Both teams will play their best football and it will be a tight game, but that line is too high. There's value there for sure.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:39 pm to soccerfüt
quote:
The line is created to get people to bet on the game.
yet few ever realize this. it's always personal with the majority. dumb fricks
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:41 pm to soccerfüt
quote:
The line is created to get people to bet on the game
I realize this...Just seems they would get more action on both sides with a -3 or -4 spread in Bama's favor, IMHO. -6.5 is going to bring in a ton of bets on LSU, which will cause the line to move down, but there won't be close to the same money on the Bama side of the line.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:41 pm to BradleyJ33
Will be down to +3.5 by Nov 7
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:45 pm to Flocka Tiger
quote:
Will be down to +3.5 by Nov 7
You have no idea what you're talking about. If the line moves, it will be minimal and away from LSU.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:46 pm to dallastiger55
quote:
vegas aint dumb
they know what they are doing
Vegas dictates the opening line which is just a guess, but that's it.
The betting dictates where the line moves. The fact that it does constantly move based on how the people bet is evidence that Vegas doesn't know everything. Their goal is to get equal action on both sides.
Value can be found when the lines open before they have been beaten up by the public.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:46 pm to BradleyJ33
It will be back to Bama being a slight favorite by game time.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:49 pm to diehardfan
quote:
Vegas dictates the opening line which is just a guess
They're not exactly drawing numbers out of a hat.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:51 pm to DEG
quote:
You have no idea what you're talking about. If the line moves, it will be minimal and away from LSU.
I bet you're wrong. By game time the line will go down from Bama -6.5.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:55 pm to MOT
quote:
They're not exactly drawing numbers out of a hat.
No, they certainly aren't and no one suggested they were..
They're looking at points scored, points allowed along with plenty of other trend, stats and public perception.
They factor in injuries, location and weather and determine an opening line...but it's still a guess. Their intent is to create a line that will generate action on both sides and allow betting volume to adjust the line.
This post was edited on 10/26/15 at 9:24 pm
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:55 pm to BradleyJ33
So if we played at a neutral site, we are a 3-3.5 point underdog and a P to 1 point favorite if we were playing at home.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:56 pm to BradleyJ33
I think the spread is about right; I am looking at it without purple & gold colored glasses.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:00 pm to diehardfan
quote:
Their intent is to create a line that will generate action on both sides and allow betting volume to adjust the line
And if they were merely taking a guess at what that line is, the one that would draw action on each side, they would get taken to the woodshed on a regular basis. Sure they miss some, especially early in the season, and they get beat up on openers but you're kidding yourself if you think they're just throwing numbers against the wall.
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