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re: Kyle Trask vs LSU - Pressure stats vs no pressure according to SECStatCat
Posted on 10/15/19 at 1:30 pm to Capo Losi
Posted on 10/15/19 at 1:30 pm to Capo Losi
quote:
There is no context to these stats though... Down and distance? Game situation... quarter, spot on the field, risk/reward, etc... So these are just meaningless globs of numbers.
Never trust stats that go against what you know to be common sense.
It's not better to have no pressure on a quarterback.
It just means you are not accounting for other factors.
1
Posted on 10/15/19 at 1:33 pm to bayou85
quote:
How would one get an "Unpressured" sack?
QB could just take off running with the clock in his head telling him it’s time to run (ie panic) even though no one is about to sack him. Then someone comes up and nails him behind the LOS...presto..a sack. Ya..I’m reaching.
This post was edited on 10/15/19 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 10/15/19 at 1:33 pm to slackster
Yeah, I'm pretty sure that Aranda knows what he is doing over all these keyboard coordinators
Posted on 10/15/19 at 1:33 pm to Mohican
quote:what's the old adage: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
Those are great stats. But there are some things that go unaccounted for when dealing with stats. For example, when it comes to stalling a drive. One play can drastically affect or stall a drive. Negative plays are more likely to do that.
A quarterback can be inaccurate on 2 out of 3 plays and still drive the field. But if he gets sacked for a loss of 10 on one of those plays the drive is more likely to stall.
Much like a poll, statistics can be misleading.
I'm not questioning those stats, but would love more detail.
Also, I think it's common knowledge that letting a good passer sit back patiently in the pocket, with no pressure, will most often result in offensive success. Even the best DBs can't cover for more than a few seconds.
Giving a good QB time is a recipe for disaster. So bring pressure and make him make quick decisions.
Now of course, don't blitz every down, and certainly don't do it from the same spot. Disguise it, vary it, and keep the offense off-balance and guessing.
But I find it very hard to believe that a pressured QB performs better than an unpressured QB, over the long run.
Posted on 10/15/19 at 1:36 pm to slackster
quote:Thanks. My point was that the 'pressure' on those 12.7% may have been by design.
Florida has thrown a screen on 12.1% of their non-pressured attempts and 12.7% of their pressured attempts.
Posted on 10/15/19 at 1:37 pm to slackster
What counts as a pressure? I feel like Shelvin always got a good push but hes usually not really a threat to get to a semi-mobile/aware QB.
Posted on 10/15/19 at 1:40 pm to Capo Losi
quote:
There is no context to these stats though... Down and distance? Game situation... quarter, spot on the field, risk/reward, etc... So these are just meaningless globs of numbers.
Feel free to go to the link and filter until your heart is content.
Posted on 10/15/19 at 1:50 pm to Genestealer55
quote:
QB could just take off running with the clock in his head telling him it’s time to run (ie panic) even though no one is about to sack him
How fun would it be to watch a paranoid schizophrenic at QB!
Posted on 10/15/19 at 1:52 pm to Topwater Trout
quote:
you do realize some of those pressures were not during blitzes right?
Yes, I'm taking some liberty by summing it up as blitz blitz blitz on this board.
quote:
I would love to see a drive by drive breakdown of when we pressured him and didn't pressure him...also how many blitzes we ran. These stats aren't showing the whole story. The eye test says we sucked at getting pressure on him and the HC even said that was the focus for the second half.
We got pressure on 22% of his dropbacks in the first half. He threw an "interceptable" pass on 11% of his total dropbacks in the first half. His accuracy was 61% and he was successful on 61% of his attempts.
In the second half, we got pressure on 47% of his dropbacks, 14% of his passes were interceptable, his accuracy was down to 43%, and he was successful on 57% of his dropbacks.
That seems to confirm the eyetest that we turned it up in the second half and Trask wasn't as good, but sometimes it's more correlation than causation.
In the second half, he was 7/10 for 105 yards against pressure. Had a success rate of 70% and an accuracy rate of 60%.
In the second half when we didn't get pressure, he was considerably worse. 5/11, 64 yards, had a success rate of 45% and an accuracy rate of 27%.
Posted on 10/15/19 at 1:54 pm to Mohican
quote:
Never trust stats that go against what you know to be common sense. It's not better to have no pressure on a quarterback.
There are absolutely QBs that dominate against pressure.
Posted on 10/15/19 at 1:55 pm to bayou85
quote:
How would one get an "Unpressured" sack?
I bet Eli Manning could spin quite the tale of toes stepped on by his center...
Posted on 10/15/19 at 2:18 pm to slackster
2nd half defense was much better. We did more than blitz though we actually ran stunts that I don't remember running in first half...not saying we didn't but I don't remember them. We know DA wants to get pressure with 4 but we can't rely on that until we get better DL or better technique. The bad thing is the defense we played in the first half is probably what we will have to run against bama because I just can't see blitzing Tua bc he dinks and dunks a ton. Saying that we probably blitz like crazy and sack him 5x
Posted on 10/15/19 at 2:24 pm to Topwater Trout
quote:
2nd half defense was much better.
Overall it was better, but it probably had more to do with mixing it up and confusing him. He was actually better against the pressure, but the frequency with which we brought it may have screwed him up on downs when we sat back.
Posted on 10/15/19 at 2:29 pm to slackster
quote:because those people don’t understand football and are only slightly better than the “fire __________” group
Seems a bit counterintuitive to the "blitz blitz blitz" mantra we've heard on here since Saturday.
This post was edited on 10/15/19 at 2:30 pm
Posted on 10/15/19 at 2:33 pm to slackster
quote:
Overall it was better, but it probably had more to do with mixing it up and confusing him. He was actually better against the pressure, but the frequency with which we brought it may have screwed him up on downs when we sat back.
LSU constantly showed blitz after UF's scoring drive in the 2nd half, which they didn't do much at all in the 1st half. Even when they didn't come, they showed it.
UF eventually adjusted, but for a couple of drives Trask was clearly flustered.
This post was edited on 10/15/19 at 2:34 pm
Posted on 10/15/19 at 2:34 pm to slackster
quote:
Overall it was better, but it probably had more to do with mixing it up and confusing him. He was actually better against the pressure, but the frequency with which we brought it may have screwed him up on downs when we sat back.
These are exactly the types of things that stats can’t account for.
Another is, it just seems like quarterbacks are more dialed in in situations that require pressure. A crucial point in the game where they know they need a completion they step it up, the coach calling plays steps it up, and there is just more urgency than a normal 2nd and 5 where there is little urgency.
More unpredictability with pressure is definitely called for I think.
Posted on 10/15/19 at 2:36 pm to slackster
I would love to know what the definition of pressure is. You can have a qb hold onto the ball for 5 seconds and then get pressure but he had all day to throw and then on the other hand a team can blitz and the qb can get rid of the ball in less than a second and not be pressured.
Posted on 10/15/19 at 2:37 pm to slackster
How are "pressured" and "unpressured" defined in this context and who made that determination for purposes of compiling the statistics?
This post was edited on 10/15/19 at 2:37 pm
Posted on 10/15/19 at 2:37 pm to DmitriKaramazov
quote:
How are "pressured" and "unpressured" defined in this context and who made that determination for purposes of compiling the statistics?
Typically, if a QB is forced off of their spot they are "pressured".
Posted on 10/15/19 at 2:44 pm to RB10
quote:
Typically, if a QB is forced off of their spot they are "pressured".
If true, the statistic seems fairly meaningless insofar as it does not account for time to throw. For example, imagine a QB sees a blitz coming and quickly slings the ball into the flat or underneath without moving. That counts as "unpressured," even though it was a blitz. Conversely, imagine a QB sits in the pocket for three/four seconds without moving as routes develop, then climbs the pocket when a rusher finally reaches him and throws a long strike. That counts as "pressured," even though the pass rush was totally ineffectual by conventional standards and the QB had eight hours (hyperbole) to throw.
This post was edited on 10/15/19 at 2:45 pm
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