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1
Posted on 12/31/11 at 7:37 am to Regreaux
quote:
I ran out of gas. I... I had a flat tire. I didn't have enough money for cab fare. My tux didn't come back from the cleaners. An old friend came in from out of town. Someone stole my car. There was an earthquake. A terrible flood. Locusts! IT WASN'T MY FAULT, I SWEAR TO GOD
Nice Blues Brothers reference(John Belushi)
This post was edited on 12/31/11 at 8:54 am
Posted on 12/31/11 at 7:39 am to tigerdup07
The entire gump nation are already planning their 27th national championship victory parties. They're already hanging banners, printing t-shirts, taking victory laps because they expect to win. The pressure is squarely on the bama squad due to their rantarded arrogant entitled fans.
LSU plays loose and with swag and have a WANT to compete for victory.
LSU plays loose and with swag and have a WANT to compete for victory.
Posted on 12/31/11 at 7:58 am to LSUfan4444
quote:
The outcome of the first does not effect the outcome of the second (statistically speaking), but the odds of winning two in a row (at the onset of the first meeting) are not good.
Take flipping a quarter twice. If you flip heads the first time, it doesnt reduce your chances of flipping heads again, but the chances of flipping heads twice is less than 50%. Thus the saying, it's hard to beat a team twice.
If you want to pick apart a stupid saying, try "control their destiny". If it's destiny, it can't be controlled, that's why it's called destiny.
A sporting contest is not analogous to a coin flip. You should be able to assume the results of one contest will provide you with at least some indication of what might be the results of future contests between the same teams.
Yes, the results of the first "do not affect the outcome" of the second. However, unlike with coin flips, the first can still, statistically speaking, act as an indicator of what you can expect in the second.
This post was edited on 12/31/11 at 8:14 am
Posted on 12/31/11 at 8:05 am to tigerpimpbot
Two stories to this theory. Bobbie Bowden has been quoted twice this month, weeks apart in the Palm Beach Post here stating that his Fl. State team finished no. 1 and had beaten Florida during the regular season but had to play them again for the National Championship and Fl. State lost 51-21. He believes Fl. State lost their incentive and that rematch games do not work. Same thing happened to LSU and Billy Cannon vs. Ole Miss in '59. LSU won the regular season game but lost the Sugar Bowl rematch 21-7.
Then on the other hand Ga. Southern just rolled up 3 TDs on ala. early and made ala. look bad with their wishbone option or whatever it was, so maybe LSU can do some of this and win the game and bury ala. and their coach.
Then on the other hand Ga. Southern just rolled up 3 TDs on ala. early and made ala. look bad with their wishbone option or whatever it was, so maybe LSU can do some of this and win the game and bury ala. and their coach.
This post was edited on 12/31/11 at 8:06 am
Posted on 12/31/11 at 8:17 am to Intrepid
Someone posted in another thread sometime ago that the team that wins the first time actually has better odds of winning the second time, something like 69%. I am too lazy to search for it, but it makes sense. Usually the better team wins the first game, so it would stand to reason that the better team is more likely to win the second time as well.
Obviously, when the teams are evenly matched, past stats are not particularly meaningful. But the hype about how hard it is to beat a team a second time is mostly on the order of an old wives tale. A few notable games stick out, while others are ignored, and perception doesn't match reality.
Obviously, when the teams are evenly matched, past stats are not particularly meaningful. But the hype about how hard it is to beat a team a second time is mostly on the order of an old wives tale. A few notable games stick out, while others are ignored, and perception doesn't match reality.
This post was edited on 12/31/11 at 9:24 am
Posted on 12/31/11 at 8:42 am to Y.A. Tittle
quote:THIS! What a ridiculous analogy. This isn't a coin flip...it's a FOOTBALL GAME!
A sporting contest is not analogous to a coin flip
And why when LSU won the coin flip against UGA in 2003 at Tiger Stadium, did they win the 2nd coin flip in MUCH more dominating fashion in the GA Dome later that same year?
And in the BCS era, there are FAR more examples that show it is LIKELY the winner of the first game will win the rematch. Look it up, but it's about 70%. I expect LSU will be part of the 70% Jan 9th.
Posted on 12/31/11 at 8:56 am to ELVIS U
quote:
The theory is that the losing team will change its strategy and the winner won't make adjustments. Both teams will adjust. Les is real good at adjustments generally.
This. I think Miles plays the game plan totally different this round.
Posted on 12/31/11 at 8:59 am to DrTyger
so has anyone actually pulled stats on this?
Posted on 12/31/11 at 8:59 am to Fearthehat0307
quote:
i dont usually like to be the grammer police but seriously
I think he was poking fun at the poster just ahead of him who said "Once you lose, it becomes EASIER to except DEFEAT!"
Posted on 12/31/11 at 9:19 am to LSUfan4444
quote:
but the odds of winning two in a row (at the onset of the first meeting) are not good.
Statistics would beg to differ. Here's the ones since 2000:
The team that won the first matchup went 9-4.
quote:
Take flipping a quarter twice.
I don't however have the statistics on who won the coin flip.
Year Date Rk Won Rk Lost Score
2000 10/14/2000 10 Florida vs 19 Auburn 38-7
12/2/2000 7 Florida n 18 Auburn 28-6
2000 10/14/2000 8 Oklahoma at 2 Kansas St 41-31
12/2/2000 1 Oklahoma n 8 Kansas St 27-24
2001 9/29/2001 7 Tennessee vs 14 LSU 26-18
12/8/2001 21 LSU n 2 Tennessee 31-20
2001 10/20/2001 9 Texas vs 14 Colorado 41-7
12/1/2001 9 Colorado n 3 Texas 39-37
2002 11/2/2002 2 Oklahoma vs 13 Colorado 27-11
12/7/2002 8 Oklahoma n 12 Colorado 29-7
2003 9/20/2003 11 LSU vs 7 Georgia 17-10
12/6/2003 3 LSU n 5 Georgia 34-13
2003 10/11/2003 2 Miami FL at 5 Florida St 22-14
1/1/2004 10 Miami FL n 9 Florida St 16-14
Year Date Rk Won Rk Lost Score
2004 10/2/2004 8 Auburn at 10 Tennessee 34-10
12/4/2004 3 Auburn n 15 Tennessee 38-28
2007 10/13/2007 6 Oklahoma vs 11 Missouri 41-31
12/1/2007 9 Oklahoma n 1 Missouri 38-17
2007 10/25/2007 2 Boston College at 8 Virginia Tech 14-10
12/1/2007 6 Virginia Tech n 12 Boston College 30-16
2010 9/25/2010 17 Auburn vs 12 South Carolina 35-27
12/4/2010 2 Auburn n 18 South Carolina 56-17
2011 10/1/2011 13 Clemson at 11 Virginia Tech 23-3
12/3/2011 5 Clemson 38 n 21 Virginia Tech 10
2011 10/22/2011 15 Michigan St vs 4 Wisconsin 37-31
12/3/2011 11 Wisconsin 42 n 15 Michigan St 39
Posted on 12/31/11 at 9:23 am to DrTyger
In 2003 we beat Georgia twice when noone said it could be done 
Posted on 12/31/11 at 9:51 am to DrTyger
It's certainly hard to beat a team twice when you start your scenario before the the first match-up...for 1/2 of all teams attempting to do so, it becomes impossible as soon as round one is over...I mean ask Alabama how difficult it is to beat a LSU twice in a season...
That isn't the same thing as saying that the winner of round one is likely to lose round two, which a lot of talking heads have been implying but seems to have no basis in any sort of reality.
That isn't the same thing as saying that the winner of round one is likely to lose round two, which a lot of talking heads have been implying but seems to have no basis in any sort of reality.
Posted on 12/31/11 at 10:00 am to DrTyger
quote:
"it's hard to beat a team twice"
It's also hard to beat LSU just once.....we're 13-0 baby!
Posted on 12/31/11 at 10:07 am to Lithium
quote:
It's hard because teams don't often play each other twice in one season in College Football
Um ok your a Bama' fan right? LOL. U fail. It WON'T be hard to beat Bama because we've beat almost every good team in the country.
Based on LSU's schedule XD
Posted on 12/31/11 at 10:50 am to Paulu
Pressure is on Bama go to SEC rant or tide.com and read the
fiction and fabrication about 11/5 and what will happen in January and the years to come.
The ERs in Bama will be busy 1/13
fiction and fabrication about 11/5 and what will happen in January and the years to come.
The ERs in Bama will be busy 1/13
Posted on 12/31/11 at 11:09 am to popeyeaux
We didn't beat Bama the first time... Remember wide left... Wide right and it didn't count cause it was an overtime game so actually it was a tie
Posted on 12/31/11 at 11:18 am to DrTyger
I could see this being true if the game was a a few score decision. But with it being such a close game and Alabama and everyone running their mouths I doubt LSU will come in overlooking them
Posted on 12/31/11 at 11:20 am to DrTyger
Posted on 12/31/11 at 11:39 am to 41bengal
There's about as much science to the saying "it's hard to beat a team twice" as there is "this batter is 0-4 on the season, he's due for a hit".
In other words, there's nothing to back that statement other than human emotion.
In other words, there's nothing to back that statement other than human emotion.
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