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Posted on 12/6/24 at 7:19 pm to Slim
quote:it would have been during Saban and Miles' tenure, so yeah.
With Kelly as HC, yes it is
Like I posted above, you have 3-4 SEC spots, and probably 10 teams ready to spend what it takes to get there.
Posted on 12/6/24 at 7:39 pm to Champagne
No. Not at all. I'll give CBK a Mulligan this year.
Posted on 12/6/24 at 7:41 pm to Champagne
Yep
Posted on 12/6/24 at 10:08 pm to lepdagod
quote:
If Les was still the coach it would be giving… I could be remembering wrong but it always seemed like he was 10-2 at worst 9-3
Mama was wrong again. Les went 8-5 in 2008 in his 4th year and 9-4 in 2009. That was when Les made the entire middle of the field illegal to throw a ball into that zone for the rest of his coaching career leading to the most predictable brand of offense seen in decades.
Posted on 12/6/24 at 10:14 pm to Champagne
You do realize that LSUwould have only qualified for playoff 2 times in last 10 years (2018 and 2029)?
Posted on 12/7/24 at 7:47 am to mdomingue
Are your expectations for them to be significantly better than they have been historically? Just looking at the AP Top 12 as a rough go by LSU, they have been in the Top 12:
27 times in 89 years (30.3%).
9 times in the last 25 years (36%)
2 times in the last 10 years (20%)
Breaking it down even more
2 times in Saban's 5 years twice (40%)
5 times in Miles' 11 full seasons (45.4%)
2 times in O's 5 full seasons (40%)
Kelly has none at LSU yet.
The expectation looks like it should be to get in every other year or every third year. I think it is reasonable to expect LSU to be in the conversation in the last few weeks of every season or at least 80% of the time.
_________
Excellent post. Without any data, my answer was 50% of the time. The data shows that is too high. Way to keep it real.
27 times in 89 years (30.3%).
9 times in the last 25 years (36%)
2 times in the last 10 years (20%)
Breaking it down even more
2 times in Saban's 5 years twice (40%)
5 times in Miles' 11 full seasons (45.4%)
2 times in O's 5 full seasons (40%)
Kelly has none at LSU yet.
The expectation looks like it should be to get in every other year or every third year. I think it is reasonable to expect LSU to be in the conversation in the last few weeks of every season or at least 80% of the time.
_________
Excellent post. Without any data, my answer was 50% of the time. The data shows that is too high. Way to keep it real.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 12:11 pm to lepdagod
quote:
I could be remembering wrong but it always seemed like he was 10-2 at worst 9-3
While he did stack some 2-3 loss seasons, that was also the age of divisions, a 14 team conference, and a lot less parity due to no portal and to a lesser extent, no NIL. One major example from that era, is it would be highly unlikely we have Matt Flynn going into 2007 as a 3 yr backup if the portal and NIL were a thing.
Even with that discrepancy in eras (which I would think anyone would agree, no portal or NIL favored us) we would've been included in a 12 team playoff in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011. 2012, or half of his twelve years as head coach. On the other hand, you would also have to consider how we approached a season in which we knew an Alabama loss wasn't a death sentence for playoff hopes. I have no idea if that wouldve helped or hurt or overall performance in those years.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 12:32 pm to Champagne
It’s reasonable to expect to make it every year, like the Men’s NCAA in basketball. We can’t blame the Bama loss like every other year. 6-2 is reasonable every year.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 12:34 pm to Champagne
Every year? Yes.
Every other year? No.
Every other year? No.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 12:35 pm to Champagne
quote:
Is it too much to expect LSU football to be in the 12 team playoff every year?
yes
Posted on 12/7/24 at 2:21 pm to frankenfish
That's why I said you can't build from high school recruiting anymore like you could ten years ago.
It has to be a year to year thing. You can still recruit but don't expect to be able to develop most of this players you recruited from High School because they won't be here.
Kelly wants to build from High School recruiting and that would be good if we weren't in the age of transfer portal and NIL.
Rosters turn over so much from year to year it's next to impossible to predict who will hang around from year to year.
That is why we have to expect to sign 12 to 15 portal players every year.
The portal more than anything has killed CFB and immediately able to play with unlimited transfers.
It has to be a year to year thing. You can still recruit but don't expect to be able to develop most of this players you recruited from High School because they won't be here.
Kelly wants to build from High School recruiting and that would be good if we weren't in the age of transfer portal and NIL.
Rosters turn over so much from year to year it's next to impossible to predict who will hang around from year to year.
That is why we have to expect to sign 12 to 15 portal players every year.
The portal more than anything has killed CFB and immediately able to play with unlimited transfers.
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