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The Pirate King
Texas Tech Fan
Pangu
Member since May 2014
21777 posts

Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?
I could see us backdooring in with a couple of convincing wins and some other pieces falling right.


gjackx
Houston Astros Fan
Red Stick
Member since Jan 2007
14736 posts

re: Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?
If we made the finals and lost on a miracle last second half court shot...i still think we would be out.



SouthOfSouth
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2008
42835 posts

re: Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?
I think we are probably about 10-15 teams back in the race for a tourney birth. That's probably too many teams to jump. Just looking to try adn get into that top 2 seeds of the NIT and get a home game or two would be awesome.


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190
TheWalrus
LSU Fan
Memphis
Member since Dec 2012
19043 posts
 Online 

re: Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?
No, Penn State and Nebraska are out by most accounts and their resumes are far superior.


Pnels08
Houston Astros Fan
Member since Jul 2014
5329 posts

re: Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?
If we made the championship and lost that means we would have added at least 2 more quad one wins which would give us about 9. Honestly I think they would over look our rpi if that was the case. We would have more top 50 and top 25 wins than about 90% of the country.


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thunderbird1100
LSU Fan
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
52362 posts
 Online 

re: Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?
Less than 1% chance, even if we win out and lose in SECT Title game.

Our RPI is 87, worst ever to get at large was 67. Even with 3 wins, we probably arent at 67 or better. We would need basically no bids to be stolen.


UptownnMike
New Orleans Saints Fan
Uptown New Orleans
Member since Aug 2015
2943 posts

re: Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?
How many wins would we have with that? 21?


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ellessuuuu
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2004
5110 posts

re: Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?
Some of the "bracketologist" have us just outside the top 8 out list.

LINK

LINK

We currently have 7 Quadrant One wins. To make the finals we would pick up at least one more (UT) and likely a second (either Arkansas or UF). It would be very difficult to keep a team with 20 wins and 9 Q1 wins out of the tournament. I think making the finals does the trick. However, this would also depend on how other bubble teams do and the number of "bid stealers" at the mid-major level.
This post was edited on 3/5 at 9:47 am


DeathValley85
LSU Fan
Strawberry Fields
Member since May 2011
12506 posts

re: Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?
I am of the opinion that making the SECT championship game gives us a chance.

Might depend on who we beat along the way.


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BayouWolf
Member since Dec 2009
233 posts

re: Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?
LSU needs to get to 20 wins to have any a chance, which would mean getting to the championship game. That would result in the following:
1) Beating Miss St for Quad 2 win
2) Beating Tennessee for huge Quad 1 win
3) Beating likely winner of Arky/Florida game for another Quad 1 win
4) Lose in finals to Auburn/UK/whoever for Quad 1 loss

computer numbers would jump quite a bit with that run but RPI would still be very high. KenPom, Sagarin, BPI and SOR would be in a reasonable range. KPI (also a metric used by committed on the team sheet) is already good (#49).

Interesting enough, KPI has LSU as the 2nd team off the cut line as of yesterday. Means nothing but a fun data point for those holding out hope for a big SECT run.


The Truth 34
LSU Fan
Death Valley
Member since May 2010
34648 posts

re: Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?
Yea, 20 wins is the magic number to give us a fighting chance. The number of Quad 1 wins that this team has accrued this season is remarkable considering they have 13 losses. We’d only add to that by making it to the SECT final.

I know it’s such a long shot, but I hope we somehow make it to Sunday and force the committee’s hand.


BayouWolf
Member since Dec 2009
233 posts

re: Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?
quote:

No, Penn State and Nebraska are out by most accounts and their resumes are far superior.


Why are the superior? Nebraska has beaten ONE team that will be in the tourney, Michigan, who just drubbed them in the Big 10 tourney.

At the foundation of the process, and the numbers/metric should (but don't always)prove it out, the committee looks at 1) who did you play, 2) who did you beat and 3) where did you beat them, 4) do you have any bad losses

LSU isn't a tourney team right now but they have proven they can beat tourney teams on the road (Arky, A&M), on a neutral site (Michigan) and at home (Arky, A&M, Mizzou, Houston).

Very few bubble teams can say that. LSU's problem is bad losses to SFA and @ Vandy and missed chances (which every bubble team has) with close/OT losses to SFA, @Vandy, UGA, @SC.



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Alt26
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2010
11311 posts

re: Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?
If LSU beats MSU, then they will add another Q2 win AND (more importantly) a neutral site win. That would then give them a game vs. Tennessee. Should they win that game, it would mean another Q1 victory (which is LSU's biggest selling point). After that, LSU would (likely) play Arkansas or Florida. A victory vs. either would be a Q1 win. Should LSU get to that point, they would likely have more Q1 wins than about 95% of teams in the country. Would it be enough? Who knows? But it would at least make the committee talk about LSU.
quote:


Penn State and Nebraska are out by most accounts and their resumes are far superior.


Are they really far superior? Or is that something parroted by the talking heads?

PSU - 21-13; RPI: 76; SOS: 74; Record vs. Q1 opponents: 3-8; Record away from home: 7-9 (and this is AFTER the nice run in the Big 10 tourney)

Nebraska - 22-10; RPI: 64; SOS: 96; Record vs. Q1 opponents: 1-6; Record away from home: 6-9

LSU - 17-13; RPI: 87; SOS: 48; Record vs. Q1 opponents: 6-5; Record away from home: 4-9

Three wins by LSU in the SECT means the record away from home goes from a weak 4-9 to a more respectable 7-10 (assuming LSU doesn't win the whole thing). More importantly, they would add two more wins vs. NCAAT teams, FIVE of those coming AWAY from home. That's BIG!

Right now the consensus is Baylor, UCLA, Providence and Bama are the "last four in". Compare LSU to those 4 and I think you can make an argument for LSU's inclusion

Baylor - 17-13; RPI: 61; SOS: 18; Record vs. Q1 opponents: 4-10; Record away from home: 4-9

Bama - 17-14; RPI: 59; SOS: 5; Record vs. Q1 opponents: 5-6; Record away from home: 5-9;

UCLA -20-10; RPI: 38; SOS: 54; Record vs. Q1 opponents: 3-7; Record away from home: 6-8

Providence - 19-12; RPI: 43; SOS: 24; Record vs. Q1 opponents: 3-8; Record away from home: 6-8

For every team on "the bubble" there are reasons to keep them out. Obviously LSU's biggest weakness is the 87 RPI. It's almost a certainty that NO TEAM will get an at-large bid with an RPI below 75. Why? Because with the introduction of the "quadrant" system the selection committee has made (without expressly saying so) a RPI ranking of 75 the cutoff for NCAA tournament teams. Thus, LSU MUST get below 75 to have even the slightest chance. The good news is that the SECT gives them a chance with at least 3 neutral site wins to get under that mark.

Long shot? Absolutely. But with a solid performance this week, coupled with some stumbles by other "bubble teams", LSU could make things interesting


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BayouWolf
Member since Dec 2009
233 posts

re: Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?
quote:

The number of Quad 1 wins that this team has accrued this season is remarkable considering they have 13 losses


Such a good point. Weirdest stat I've seen and speaks to the uniqueness of LSU's resume is they are 6-4 against SEC teams with .500 or better conference records and 2-6 against SEC teams with below .500 conference records.

Can beat good teams but struggled with average/mediocre teams.


DiehardLSUZach
LSU Fan
Mandeville
Member since Dec 2013
597 posts

re: Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?
None


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04
Alt26
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2010
11311 posts

re: Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?
Running the RPI prediction calculator give this result:

Wins vs. MSU, Tenn., Florida. Loss to UK (who I think will get to the SECT championship game) would give LSU a RPI ranking in the neighborhood of 65. That would be in the range for a potential bid. Couple that with what would be a GREAT Q1 record and a (likely) below 40 SOS, and a 20-14 LSU COULD get in.

Again, this is ALL conjecture and long odds. But LSU still has a chance to do something in the SECT.


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Areddishfish
Yale Fan
Luiziana
Member since Oct 2015
965 posts

re: Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?
No


Pnels08
Houston Astros Fan
Member since Jul 2014
5329 posts

re: Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?
Fwiw Joe lundari has Oklahoma state as a first 4 out and their rpi is worse than ours


Alt26
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2010
11311 posts

re: Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?
quote:

Fwiw Joe lundari has Oklahoma state as a first 4 out and their rpi is worse than ours


Good catch:

Compare OSU to LSU

OSU: 18-13; RPI 88; SOS 57; Q1 record 5-10; record away from home: 5-8

LSU: 17-13; RPI 87; SOS 48; Q1 record 6-5; record away from home: 4-9

OSU is being propped up by a season sweep of Kansas and a win AT West Virginia. But overall, LSU has a better resume. What this COULD tell us is just how important Q1 wins are in the eyes of the committee. Who you beat and where you beat them has long been the most important metric. If LSU can add a neutral site win vs. Tenn. AND Ark/Florida, the committee would be hard pressed to find a bubble team with MORE impressive wins. That would mean LSU would have (at least) 7 wins vs. (likely) NCAAT teams and FIVE of those would have come away from home.


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Dave England
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2013
4515 posts

re: Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?
playoffstatus.com has LSU with a 53% chance of making the tournament if LSU makes it to the confernce tournament championship game.

I'll take their numbers over yours.


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