Is it possible for us to make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC Tourney?

If we made the finals and lost on a miracle last second half court shot...i still think we would be out.

No, Penn State and Nebraska are out by most accounts and their resumes are far superior.

Less than 1% chance, even if we win out and lose in SECT Title game.

Our RPI is 87, worst ever to get at large was 67. Even with 3 wins, we probably arent at 67 or better. We would need basically no bids to be stolen.

Some of the "bracketologist" have us just outside the top 8 out list.

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We currently have 7 Quadrant One wins. To make the finals we would pick up at least one more (UT) and likely a second (either Arkansas or UF). It would be very difficult to keep a team with 20 wins and 9 Q1 wins out of the tournament. I think making the finals does the trick. However, this would also depend on how other bubble teams do and the number of "bid stealers" at the mid-major level.

LSU needs to get to 20 wins to have any a chance, which would mean getting to the championship game. That would result in the following:
1) Beating Miss St for Quad 2 win
2) Beating Tennessee for huge Quad 1 win
3) Beating likely winner of Arky/Florida game for another Quad 1 win
4) Lose in finals to Auburn/UK/whoever for Quad 1 loss

computer numbers would jump quite a bit with that run but RPI would still be very high. KenPom, Sagarin, BPI and SOR would be in a reasonable range. KPI (also a metric used by committed on the team sheet) is already good (#49).

Interesting enough, KPI has LSU as the 2nd team off the cut line as of yesterday. Means nothing but a fun data point for those holding out hope for a big SECT run.

Yea, 20 wins is the magic number to give us a fighting chance. The number of Quad 1 wins that this team has accrued this season is remarkable considering they have 13 losses. We’d only add to that by making it to the SECT final.

I know it’s such a long shot, but I hope we somehow make it to Sunday and force the committee’s hand.

If LSU beats MSU, then they will add another Q2 win AND (more importantly) a neutral site win. That would then give them a game vs. Tennessee. Should they win that game, it would mean another Q1 victory (which is LSU's biggest selling point). After that, LSU would (likely) play Arkansas or Florida. A victory vs. either would be a Q1 win. Should LSU get to that point, they would likely have more Q1 wins than about 95% of teams in the country. Would it be enough? Who knows? But it would at least make the committee talk about LSU.

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Penn State and Nebraska are out by most accounts and their resumes are far superior.

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Are they really far superior? Or is that something parroted by the talking heads?

PSU - 21-13; RPI: 76; SOS: 74; Record vs. Q1 opponents: 3-8; Record away from home: 7-9 (and this is AFTER the nice run in the Big 10 tourney)

Nebraska - 22-10; RPI: 64; SOS: 96; Record vs. Q1 opponents: 1-6; Record away from home: 6-9

LSU - 17-13; RPI: 87; SOS: 48; Record vs. Q1 opponents: 6-5; Record away from home: 4-9

Three wins by LSU in the SECT means the record away from home goes from a weak 4-9 to a more respectable 7-10 (assuming LSU doesn't win the whole thing). More importantly, they would add two more wins vs. NCAAT teams, FIVE of those coming AWAY from home. That's BIG!

Right now the consensus is Baylor, UCLA, Providence and Bama are the "last four in". Compare LSU to those 4 and I think you can make an argument for LSU's inclusion

Baylor - 17-13; RPI: 61; SOS: 18; Record vs. Q1 opponents: 4-10; Record away from home: 4-9

Bama - 17-14; RPI: 59; SOS: 5; Record vs. Q1 opponents: 5-6; Record away from home: 5-9;

UCLA -20-10; RPI: 38; SOS: 54; Record vs. Q1 opponents: 3-7; Record away from home: 6-8

Providence - 19-12; RPI: 43; SOS: 24; Record vs. Q1 opponents: 3-8; Record away from home: 6-8

For every team on "the bubble" there are reasons to keep them out. Obviously LSU's biggest weakness is the 87 RPI. It's almost a certainty that NO TEAM will get an at-large bid with an RPI below 75. Why? Because with the introduction of the "quadrant" system the selection committee has made (without expressly saying so) a RPI ranking of 75 the cutoff for NCAA tournament teams. Thus, LSU MUST get below 75 to have even the slightest chance. The good news is that the SECT gives them a chance with at least 3 neutral site wins to get under that mark.

Long shot? Absolutely. But with a solid performance this week, coupled with some stumbles by other "bubble teams", LSU could make things interesting

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Fwiw Joe lundari has Oklahoma state as a first 4 out and their rpi is worse than ours

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Good catch:

Compare OSU to LSU

OSU: 18-13; RPI 88; SOS 57; Q1 record 5-10; record away from home: 5-8

LSU: 17-13; RPI 87; SOS 48; Q1 record 6-5; record away from home: 4-9

OSU is being propped up by a season sweep of Kansas and a win AT West Virginia. But overall, LSU has a better resume. What this COULD tell us is just how important Q1 wins are in the eyes of the committee. Who you beat and where you beat them has long been the most important metric. If LSU can add a neutral site win vs. Tenn. AND Ark/Florida, the committee would be hard pressed to find a bubble team with MORE impressive wins. That would mean LSU would have (at least) 7 wins vs. (likely) NCAAT teams and FIVE of those would have come away from home.