re: I have not felt this good about LSU football since 2019. A breakdown as to why:

We lost a lot on the Oline. Talent and experience. That will be the key, how fast the new group can mesh.

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Since 2020, I've done a lot of research before each season and have not really felt we had all the pieces since 2020 every pre-season. I feel it this year.

Start with last year's final 4 teams all had defenses that finished top 10-ish in the country. It was obvious especially after having arguably one of the greatest offenses of all time (Jayden set FBS passer rating record, 46 ppg) in 2023 and 4, high 1st round picks, 2nd round TE, that it can't be done without a defense. 2023 Ole Miss was evidence enough.

What we addressed on Defense:

A fantastic transfer class. My hat is off to BK. He saw what our weaknesses were. Said, F it, if I don't get enough money to buy them, then I'll put up $1,000,000 of my own money. Huge respect there. DBs were by far weakest point on the team. What does BK do? Replaces all of them. Mansoor Delane, 1st round mock draft pick, 4 picks 2 FF, will start. DJ Pickett will start imo. He's too impactful like Stingley was to bench. AJ Haulcy, 5 INTs, 7 PD, will play Safety. Tamarcus Cooley, 3 INTs, 2 FF, is another great pickup.

Just like that BK in just 3 DBs, picks up 12 INTs and 5 Force Fumbles. That's 1.5 turnovers a game JUST IN 3 PLAYERS. Not even counting Pickett. I have a feeling this team will average 2.5 turnovers or more a game on Defense, which is HUGE.

Patrick Payton is a huge get. Massive guy with high speed. 16 sacks over his career. Our weakest spot on Defense will be the other weak side DE either Pyburn or Reliford. DT's Dominick McKinley will be an absolute unit. Only played 4 games last year and had 3 sacks. That's 9 sacks extrapolated over a season which is just insane from the DT position to have to clear a huge pile to get through. He's healthy now and is huge. Going to need Ahmad Breaux and Reliford to step up big. We have 2 elite, 5-star level on Dline though which is huge and takes pressure off other guys.

Linebackers, not much needed to say here. Whit Weeks is playing to get a 1st round draft pick. Gives 110% every play. I know the stereotypical "has a high motor" phrase could be used here, but it's 110% applicable. Have no worries about him other than injury. If healthy, he'll be a force. Harold Perkins. A name that was once touted a top 5 pick, and now it seems he's not even a presence on the team. Look, he's too talented, and FINALLY has defensive help. DB's will lock up passing game, so he has free roam to do what he wants, and that's QB spy. I think what we saw in 2022 Arkansas will be happening again due to our huge pickups in DB. He had a lot of responsibility dropping back in coverage because Sage Ryan and the likes. This will free him up to go full spring on the QB, which is huge. Putting pressure on the QB has severely lacked for a while now. It will be back.

Offense:

I have zero worries about Offense.

We will have by far the fastest WR group in the country. No one else will come close. Aaron Anderson will break 1,000 yards. Chris Hilton is healthy. He played 2 healthy games last year and went for over 200 yards and 3 TDs and absolutely burnt every defender. No one could keep up with him last 2 games. Nic Anderson has only played 1 year for OU. 2023 he put up 800 yards and 10 TDs as a Freshman. Biggest stat: 21 ypc. An absolute burner. He was injured all last year, but 6'4" 220 lbs and 21 ypc sounds like Brian Thomas Jr to me. Barrion Brown, a luxury to have your 4th string run a 4.3 (or faster) that has 5 kickoffs returned, averaging over 30 yards per kickoff return and will be a reliable 400 to 500 yard guy. Trey'Dez will have a Mason Taylor type stat year. Big for red zone.

Can't overstate the speed at WR. Malik and BTJ ran 4.3 40s. Speed this team will have will absolute kill opponents. Expect as many 25+ yard plays as 2023 Fall who averaged a #1 overall 46 points per game
Aaron Anderson: 4.3 40
Chris Hilton: 4.3 40
Nic Anderson: I assume 4.4 40 with 21 ypc
Barrion Brown: 4.3 40
TreyDez Green: Not a burner, but a unit that is huge in red zone

RB, Caden Durham is all that needs to be said. The guy turned what should of been LOS runs from our bad run blocking into 30 yard TDs. I would like to see Caden get 75% of handoffs. Harlem Berry, 5 star, coming in at 2nd string. I can't say I know too much about Harlem Berry, if anyone has watched him in New Orleans, please detail what you think. Kaleb Jackson at 3rd string. Kaleb will have to show that he can carry a ball without running into the back of an offensive lineman or right into the pile. He has to work on vision and lateral agility. Without it, he won't find himself getting any handoffs.

OLine - You're going to have to forgive me, but even a seasoned veteran fan will still have some issue scouting an O Line simply because you pay attention to the ball in football which O Line doesn't get. You only really notice if the QB gets sacked or the QB has 8 seconds to throw. I have more faith in DJ Chester than most here. He'll be off center so don't have to worry about Center induced penalties, but he was a great blocker. I never saw Nuss get sacked from the nose guard position coming through Chester. Tyree Adams, well I never noticed him letting up sacks, and if you can say that about an OL, then he's doing pretty well. OL will absolutely have to run block better. With Nuss having experience and threats at WR, I think that could happen naturally to open up run game. We have 2 highly rated 4 star OL transfer, can't speak to them. Weston Davis, I didn't see much of him last year. Our skill position is so deep this year, that I am comfortable with the level of talent we have on the OL.

Grand finale, Nuss. I have faith in NUSS BUS. He comes across to me as a coachable player. One who will learn from his mistakes in the off season. The coachable players like Burrow and Jayden made strides in the past. I don't see why Nuss wouldn't make a stride up. Will he be as good as those 2? Well those were heisman's and put up potentially the best 2 seasons every by any QB (yes Jayden set FBS Passer Rating record vs a Top 10 SOS). I could see Nuss putting up a Jaxon Dart type passing yards. 180+ passer rating. Very, very solid season. I think he will be good enough and have enough talent that yes, he could win a Nati.


Upside: 12-0 Expected: 10-2 Downside: 9-3

Losses: @ Clemson and @ Bama. If we win on the road at Clemson week 1, 11-1 will be the record. I know it'd suck so bad to lose 6 straight home openers, but Clemson has top 5 talent, and it is on the road. Can't ask for a shittier week 1 matchup. Big donors needs to talk to AD/BK about that has to end. Luckily, I don't see any top 10 matchups after Clemson in '26.

10-2 with our schedule will get you a 1st round bye. Probably a 5 or 6 seed. That means very first CFP game in Baton Rouge, first ever in December? I don't know.

Chance to make CFP: 75%

Chance to make Nati game: 30%

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agree wit all here.. BK went all in for this year and its apparent... i think we beat clemson and yes I think they are a playoff team...

A couple of points/tempered expectations:

2011 defense averaged 2 TO/game
Zero chance this defense matches that number

Hilton has been healthy at some point in the offseason almost every year and gets injured prior to season or very quickly after getting onto the field. I hate that for him and LSU. He has talent, but we have zero track record of him maintaining health.

Red Zone offense and playcalling was very subpar last year. No guarantees that makes an improvement, but I hope it will.

Zero concerns on offense? We had arguably more talent on oline last year and couldn’t run block. Hopefully that changes, but we haven’t had a run game under Kelly except for the greatest running QB in school history. And if we are honest, the bulk of that was not from a designed running scheme.

I agree we have assembled the best overall team talent yet under BK, but he hasn’t proven his coaching to be superior as of yet.

I do feel for him in that we have to face the toughest opening game yet under his tenure and it could really set the tone of negativity from fans early this year if we don’t show up or look much better than past openers.

I ride and die w LSU and was a big fan of Kelly hire, but at this point I need to see it to believe it.

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Offense:
I have zero worries about Offense.

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Well-written post, just not agreeing w/you on this. If Nuss shows that "dawg" then we'll be fine.

BUT, remember, the trad LSU defense has bailed us out in many games in the past few decades. So, I'm praying they will do so again

You're pipe dreaming.