Hypothetical Question:

Nobody can really say for sure. Unless we just decide not to lose anymore games we are leaving it in the hands of the committee and it gets tougher with each loss.

Only 12 conference wins is not sufficient to get into the regional. Especially with our lackluster overall record. We would need a good bit more than two wins, and even then I’m not sure.

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Let's say we beat USCe today, Tulane in the midweek, and go 3-3 against Florida and Georgia.

Do we need 2 wins in Hoover to get into a region?

Would just 1 win end the season?

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Probably need two wins, maybe even 3 but this is uncharted territory for LSU. Since the advent of the 30-game SEC schedule, LSU has won 13 or more SEC games every year except Paul's first in 2007, when they were 12-17-1 and 29-26-1 overall. Back then, you had to qualify for the SEC tournament, and LSU did not. So we cannot see where that part of the equation would leave us. Our current RPI is 58

Let's look at what that may mean based Warren Nolan's predictions, they expect us to sweep SC, get swept by Georgia and win 2 of 3 from Florida and end up 11-19 with an RPI of 51. If we win one at Georgia and 2 vs Florida, we would be 12-18 (as you stated), I would expect an RPI in the upper 40s.

Let's look at your scenario:

There are 64 teams in the NCAA baseball tournament. 29 auto qualifiers. If this goes chalk, 16 of those should be in the top 64 RPI, meaning that 13 will not, with the possibility that a few other unexpected teams may win their conference tournament and qualify.

Since the "bubble teams are not always selected purely on RPI there is some wiggle room if a team is playing very hot at the end of the season (I would not categorize LSU that way). So a high 40s RPI is iffy at best. In short, we need to go at least 4-2 vs Florida & Georgia or win more than 1 in the SEC tournament, possibly more than 2.

Seasons over unless they win SEC tournament. Does not matter what their record is; auto bid.

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shite how about if LSU just had took just one game in all of the weekends they got swept.

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This is the first rule of how you want a base season to go. Don't get swept.

1. Don't get swept
2. Win every home series

That gets you to 15-15 and in the postseason every time.

Beyond that, you would like to:

3. Win at least 1 away series
4. Sweep at least 1 home series

That gets you to 17-13, you're definitely hosting a regional.

The next step up

5. Win 2 or more away series or sweep one.
6 Sweep 2 or more home series.

That gets you to 19-11, and you are likely to host a super.

Those are my rules of thumb for how I like the season to go. Conditions 3-6 require meeting conditions 1 and 2, of course.

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We would be around 12 wins already. Instead we got 8 wins.

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If we win the 4 SEC games we held the other team to 5 or fewer runs and lost, we are 12-11. If we win two of the games we lost by 1, we are 14 -9. Unfortunately, we cannot go back and change that.