Heads Up: FanDuel has line up for LSU vs Ole Miss next year: LSU -1.5

LSU by 38

We literally have no idea what our team will look like next season. It’ll be like 8/11 new starters at least.

with that line they are trying to get equal action on both sides and suck up the juice

Vegas had LSU at 8.5 over/under wins this season.
Lsu goes 7-5

Vegas has LSU’s win total at 9.5 for 2026

Bama -6.5 vs LSU before the season. Bama wins 20-9

Ole Miss -3.5 vs LSU before the season. Ole Miss wins 24-19

Think of a sportsbook as having two knobs it can turn to manage risk:

The spread (LSU -1.5, -3, -7, etc.)

The price/juice attached to each side (LSU -1.5 -110 vs -120, etc.)

They adjust those two knobs to control:

How much money comes in on each side

How much risk they take on a particular game

I’ll walk through how that works and why a “weird” line like LSU -1.5 might exist despite the Ole Miss chaos.

1. How a line like LSU -1.5 gets created

Internally, books have:

Power ratings for each team (numeric strength)

Adjustments for injuries, coaching changes, transfers, home field, etc.

They might say, for example:

“Our model makes LSU -3.5 on a neutral field, -5.5 with home field, but we’re uncertain about Ole Miss roster/portal fallout, so we’ll open softer.”

Then they:

Possibly shade slightly toward the side they expect the public to like (often LSU, a big brand)

Post a lookahead or early line with relatively low betting limits

That LSU -1.5 line you saw is almost certainly:

An early, low-limit number

Designed more to “feel out” the market than to be the final, polished opinion

They are not risking millions on LSU -1.5 at this stage.

2. “Balancing action” vs actually taking a position

Old textbook story: books just want equal money on both sides and keep the juice.

Reality today:

They care about balance, but

They also respect sharp money and are willing to have some risk if they think the line is +EV for them.

So:

If lots of public bettors slam LSU -1.5

But sharp bettors (respected accounts/syndicates) hit Ole Miss +1.5

The book may happily sit with a lopsided ticket count:

80% of tickets on LSU,

But most of the dollars or sharp money on Ole Miss

In that case, they are not trying to perfectly balance; they are effectively saying:

“We trust our numbers and our sharps. If LSU blows them out, we’ll pay, but long-term this is a profitable position.”

3. How they actually move lines to manage risk

When action becomes unbalanced or sharp money shows up, they start turning the knobs:

Knob A: Move the juice

Example starting point:

LSU -1.5 -110

Ole Miss +1.5 -110

Lots of LSU money comes in. They might move to:

LSU -1.5 -120

Ole Miss +1.5 +100

Effect:

Betting LSU now costs more (worse price)

Ole Miss is more attractive for contrarians/sharps

Risk is nudged back toward balance without changing the spread

If imbalance continues, they move again:

LSU -1.5 -130 / Ole Miss +1.5 +110, etc.

Knob B: Move the spread

If juice moves don’t slow LSU money enough, they change the spread:

LSU -1.5 -110 ? LSU -2.5 -110

Maybe later ? LSU -3.5 -110

Effect:

Bettors who liked LSU -1.5 might not like LSU -3.5

Bettors who liked Ole Miss +1.5 may really like +3.5

This shifts the flow of bets significantly

Books generally:

Move juice first for fine-tuning

Move the spread when they need a bigger adjustment

4. Why would the line look “ridiculous” if LSU is a “lock”?

Several possibilities:

You’re earlier to the news than the market thinks you are

The book may be pricing in “Ole Miss is worse,” but not “they’re dead.”

Transfer portal, NIL, and actual depth/roster data might not support a true “dead team” narrative yet.

Early lookahead with low limits

Early lines are often soft on purpose.

If LSU really is that underpriced, sharp bettors will crush LSU -1.5, and the line will march up to -3, -6, etc.

The book will adjust quickly as money and info arrive.

They have a different evaluation of the coaching loss than casual fans

Fans/media may overreact to “coach gone, team devastated.”

Models sometimes treat coaching changes as worth fewer points than people think, especially this far out when rosters are still in flux.

They might be willing to take a stand

If their fair line is, say, LSU -1.0, opening -1.5 is perfectly reasonable.

They’re not trying to bait you; they’re just expressing their number and using the market to refine it.

Marketing / engagement

Posting big games early drives handle and attention.

Even if the number is not perfect, limits are low, and it gets people talking and betting.

5. What they are “trying to accomplish” with LSU -1.5, practically

In concrete terms:

They post LSU -1.5 with moderate juice (e.g., -110).

They watch:

How quickly LSU money comes in

Whether respected/sharp accounts bet Ole Miss

Based on that flow, they:

Move the juice and/or spread

Adjust limits (allow bigger bets once the line is “sharpened” by early action)

Possibly lay off risk via other books if exposure is very lopsided

Their goals:

Get to a number where:

They’re comfortable with their exposure, and

The line is efficient enough that their long-term edge (juice + slightly correct pricing) wins.

Use market behavior to correct any mistakes in the opener.

So that forum comment “they’re trying to get equal action on both sides and suck up the juice” is a simplified version of:

“They set a line they think is close to fair, shade it a bit where it makes sense, then move juice and spread based on who is betting what, with the objective of having a controlled, profitable risk profile, not necessarily perfect 50/50 action.”

If you want, next step can be: take a hypothetical where everyone thinks “LSU is a lock,” run numbers with $100k of LSU bets, adjust line and juice step by step, and see mathematically how the book’s risk and expected value change.